Morning all. Still a few techie things to sort, but getting there. I started late this morning. I don’t always trade fridays, but a few interesting possibilities will keep me interested for the next few hours.
I have no 4 hour signal (93% successful 2009 on twitter- marc12001) on any pairs this morning (7am gmt). Aud has most potential for me today. See below;
Cable is in a VERY interesting area. 4 hour & daily looks like fall due today. Very important area now. Psychological level 1.4800. 1 hour 200 ema & 4 hour 55 all in this area. If breaks here could see BIG move down today. Alternatively this could be the area for another bounce back up to the 1.500 area. Keep looking for clues. Has done 65% of average daily move already which is a negative though.
Euro/$ & Chf/$ have already moved 65% of average days range today, so limited potential for break out/further moves, other than pullbacks, so I am leaving alone today.
Aud on the other hand had very little asian moves so far (only 60 pips at time of writing) . Average day move is 150, so room to go.
I have set alarms top & bottom of the asian range. will be looking for break outs with a pullback for entry. Slight bias on the 4 hour/daily chart is up. Needs to break 0.7225. If it does my target would be 0.7280.
Alternatively, aud also near top of 15 min trend line 7215 area. If reverses then potential decent move down. 1st target if reverses is 0.7185 area. then if can break asian low 40+ pips below.
TRADE: I shorted aud at 0.7218. Its a bit speculative BUT only need very small stop loss of 12 pips. Risk/reward ratio therefore is very good. Risking 12 pips for a possible 60+ gain. If it doesn’t work, will revert to plan A & go long !
Jpy is range bound. Only 50 pip asian move. Have set alarms above & below asian range. looking for break out with a pullback. Must wait for pullback. Danger of fake out BUT when a pair has been range bound (especially near major psychological level of 100.00) then a break could be explosive.
Good luck with your trading. I have lots to do today so only trade 1st few hours but alarms set. marc
Hi, Marc. Great work on the site, please keep it up. Some questions for you.
I haven’t quite developed a trading system of my own yet. I mostly follow recommendations from various news sources and do what I can on my own, and let some EA robots create some minor profits on the side. Over the past couple of weeks, I finally graduated to trading with a standard lot and I’ve made a few small pips here and there, but I’m beginning to notice a pattern in my trading… I’m starting to be able to *see* where a pair is going without any solid trading system, but I wait too long to get in and miss some major profits. And when I do get in, I’ve missed the boat and the trade goes against me. I bet you I’ve missed, at the very least, $10K(US) in profit over the past two weeks. I guess this is a bit like asking you to explain the meaning of life, where there’s really no answer, but how does one learn to get into a trade at the right time and not wait too long? Does it really all come down to a good trading system? Is it being able to trust your gut instincts? It’s frustrating to look back at trades I intended to make but didn’t out of fear or 10% uncertainty and see the potential for a $2K trade here or a $3K trade there just gone.
I *have* learned to take profit when I have it. Learning to overcome greed was a big lesson, and a hard one at that, but I guess what I’d really like ot learn is how to overcome fear and uncertainty. Any suggestions?
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