The time is now 09.45 bst. This mornings analysis (approx 7.30am bst) is below. I update most in real time on twitter as this is a bit slow. There is a twitter feed bottom left of home page, but you have to refresh it for latest posts. Anyway from analysis below i have banked 40+ 70 pips on gbp short – probably got out too early but was at a 4 hour trend line. Also banked 25 pips + 20 locked in on euro gbp long. Balance still running..
Reason for update is keep your eye on euro/$ for possible short.
Euro/$ 60% of time goes same direction as cable. 70% time same as aud. both have broken down. All emas on euro suggest short as well. it will need to break the days previous low & pullback for me to go short.
Also the chf needs to be going up (76% of the time they go in opposite directions (known as correlation).
Finally there has only been 85 pips movement today so far. The average days move on euro is 200, so there is room to go in either direction. Keep looking for clues, but don’t dive in if it suddenly sets off. Wait for a pullback.
Posted earlier (07.30 ish bst).
morning all. I have a buy signal on 4 hour chart for euro/gbp @ 88.20 (its gone at the moment but could pullback to this area due to bollinger bands on 15 minute & 1 hour holding it back at the moment). Last 4 trading days it has been moving sideways along 78.6 fib on daily chart. Lowest point last few weeks is 87.85, so stop at 87.80 area for me. If it pullbacks to give me the entry i will go long.
No 4 hour signal on any other pairs. next candle close at 11am gmt.
gbp/$ charts favour down side but 78.6 fib pullback on 4 hour & psych level at 1.4700. need confirmed break & pullback for me to short. All emas in favour of a short as well on multiple time frames. Of the majors I suspect this has more chance, but hey who knows !
Bit more concerned with euro & chf. Both at double bottom/top areas. Personally expecting them to pullback.
I have managed to long euro/gbp at pullback to 88.30.
Policy with the rest is wait & see what happens, but gbp is just pulling back to break area at 1.4700.
I have shorted there, but its a liitle risky as london open could whipsaw it back up. For this reason I have small stop at 1.4720.
good luck with your trades. I will update later if I see anything developing.
April 17th – 23th is major turning point for equity, commodities, and currency markets. Just be careful.
thnxs Marc for your info. Since I trade american time frame I missed most of the posts. will be very rewarding waking up a bit earlier!
hi jaime. i have found over the years that the end of the asian session/ london open presents the best trade opportunities & there is a more predictable move. bad news if you are on a different time-zone !
Marc,
I have a question that goes along the lines with Jamie.
Being that I live in California, I trade around 11 am EST time. I do get your twitter updates, very helpful, thank you so much.
Question is this, your tips, are they prediction to what the US market might be.
Billy C.
hi Billy, 1st point, legally i have to say i do NOT give “tips.” What i am trying to do is teach people what to look for & then they can make decisions for themselves. the majority of the analysis i make is based on what i expect to happen in the following few hours in the london session.
However, if you learn what i am teaching & can apply that to your own trading session, then the principle should be the same.
i trade approx 6.30am bst until noon bst (1 hour before new york opens). occasionally i will analyse daily charts which do apply to movements that will take days to pan out over longer timeframes. for example in the middle of february 2009 i predicted that the jpy yen would move from 92.00 to 98.00 + area.
This move took 2 weeks & gave lots of opportunity to enter on pullbacks. if you look at the daily daily chart now it is very clear why. Price broke the 55ema for the 1st time since sept 08 & the next obvious ema target was the 200 ema.
Equally, last week i predicted that the euro/gbp would fall 150 pips, see article http://tiny.cc/classictrade. it took a couple of days & again gave opportunities to enter on pullbacks.
Summary: if you can grasp what I am trying to teach, then you should be able to apply it to any market. If you only saw 1 trade a month on a daily chart you have the opportunity to earn lots of pips from 1 trade rather than dozens per week. good luck with your trading, marc
Marc,
Thanks for the lesson. I’m very new and still trying to take it all in. In your lessons do you go over what charts and ema’s you use? I favor fibs. and bands, do you recommend any others?
Thanks so much for taking the time to help out.
Billy C.
Hi billy, check out the lessons . I explain about the emas etc. also, on the daily analysis and results i show examples of my system in action, marc