21st April Analysis
yesterdays euro . 55ema clearly in control
Diagram above shows how price rejected each time it hit/came close to the 55 ema. You could have shorted here each time for a low risk trade (stop say 10/15 pips other side of ema). Great risk/reward ratio.
Today. I have posted on twitter at 7am bst (1 hour ago), the following;
4 hour buy signals on euro, cable, jpy & aud & sell signal on chf. BUT they are all pulling back at the moment & are still within the overnight asian ranges. Thus i now go to the 15 minute charts for signs that the pullback has reached its bottom point before turning back.
This signal has been 94% successful so far this year, but has become a little wobbly the last few weeks. At the time of writing this it looks on the 15 minutes as though it could be spectacularly wrong ! However it is a longer term move and these pullbacks will look like nothing later in the day.
What i will look for is the possible longs to pullback to their overnight lows. At this point i will look for clues for a bounce back up. enter 50% of normal stake at this point, with small stop just below overnight low & any other fibs or emas that might be there. If the price looks to be confiming a break back up i will enter the 2nd part of the trade. A conservative trader might wait for a confirmed break of the overnight high of the range.
Aud – This could be the lowest risk of the possible long trades. Price is just above the 200ema on the 4 hour chart at 0.6940 area (also yesterdays low is near here). If it pullbacks near here look to long. If it breaks the 200 on 4 hour look for reasons to short.
chf - i dont really like the chf. It seems to stop at every ema along the way & good solid movement in 1 direction is rare, BUT it is stuck in a range. Yesterday it moved 90 pips (average is 140). and it is moving sideways.
Usually when this happens with any pair, periods of inactivity are followed by explosive movements. I use the chf as an indicator to trade the euro (it goes in the opposite direction 76% of the time.
gbp – there is a lot of news out this morning (every day i check out what news events are programmed for the day; http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php.
if i am not in the gbp an hour before important news then i will leave it alone until after.
euro: on the 4 hour it looked good for a long an hour ago, now not so sure ! as i say the bottom of the overnight range 1.2895 & yestedays low 1.2886 are crucial. confirmed break below = short or could bounce back up for the long.
If in doubt, best advice is STAY OUT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER: