You know when you are tired when you can’t count your pips properly. In this mornings email I said that the pip haul for the month was 1200+. When I sat down to do my monthly figures this afternoon, i realised i had made a slight mistake.
My monthly total for April 2009 up to this morning was actually 1612 !! My best month ever ! Then gbp/$ went and spoiled the party.
I took a short trade on the gbp this morning. My reasoning was good. Price broke, pulled back and then re-broke the asian range low. All the emas were pointing down on various charts. Price had closed below the 200 ema on the 4 hour chart. 1st arrow shows the yellow line for the asian low. Horizontal arrow shows a conservative entry (for me) on the 15 minute forex gbp chart below;
Everything looked great for a short. Works 80% of the time
The only possible problem was yesterdays low at 1.4512. I set my 1st target here (it missed by 3 pips). Rejected and took me out – 40 pips on 2 lots = -80 pips.
If the same set up comes along tomorrow I will take it again. Sometimes you lose in forex. Losing is part of the game. Curse a little, grab a coffee, chill then look for the next trade.
Anyone who tells you forex is easy, ignore them. This last month has been very difficult trading. My 4 hour system has not worked very well, but I have managed to improvise and mix n match and still come out ahead.
My next 2 trades were euro and aud longs on break outs. I will show the euro below on the 15 minute chart. The aud was almost identical. I initially stayed out of the euro as the chf was going nowhere and the bollinger bands on the 1 hour euro were “never in a million years” is this going to break. I posted the following on twitter 2pm b.s.t
“horrible choppy forex day again today. take a look at euro/$ 1 hour chart bollinger bands now for a price that doesnt want to go anywhere”
99% of the time price will not break these bands. wait for them to open before taking a trade
The bollinger bands opened on the hour. I entered here. It was too early really for the 200 ema was very near and flat on the 15 minute chart. Normally I won’t take a trade if there are less than 25 pips between my entry and a 200 ema.
I only took 1 lot at this point and managed to scrape 20 pips. I entered a 2nd trade a little later at 1.3050 that is still running as i write this.
break out (mid afternoon) of asian overnight range
For similar reasons I took 2 lots on the aud. Gained 20 pips on the 1st lot & was taken out of the 2nd at break even. This is so frustrating. Normally the follow through on this kind of move would gain you 50+ pips. If you are struggling at the moment don’t get despondent. This is not easy for any of us.
If you are losing at the moment, walk away for a few days. Alternatively just demo trade until things settle down. This is like trying to swim through treacle !
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Tagged with: currency trading • euro/$ • euro/usd • forex history • forex trading • forex trading lessons • gbp/usd • todays forex analysis
Filed under: My Trading Results
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hi mark hope you enjoyed your walk on beach. I’m upset that i didnt look for the same criteria this morning on pound. got scared and i just watched it run away from me . If you don’t mind what facts have you got that the same asian breakout has a 80 percent hit rate. this morning i was looking for all sorts of other trading clues instead of sticking to the origanal clue .i have done thousands of hours of studying but i am still uncertain . i like the buffet comment. hope you are having a good day
Hi mike, bad luck with the gbp, but at least you had the sense to leave it once it had set off. Re the 80% figure its just an estimate. I should be more specific i suppose now that people are listening to what i say !
The break outs on the euro, gbp and chf were all the same today (29th april) as during the last few weeks. Have a look at some of my results articles to see what i was looking for.
Its simply a break and then pullback of the asian highs & lows. It is not the way i normally trade, but in current markets i have had to find an alternative.
Markets are never constant and we need to find different strategies for different conditions. good luck, marc
I was following your rules and started with $500 and had it up to almost $2000 in two days time. good move. Then I got greedy and started chasing the pound $ and took my account all the way down to $245 in one day. This morning I got back to basics, made a quick $204 on the eur/$ and walked away. I feel so much better.
hi bob. i used to trade like this. if you carry on this way you will lose the lot, just like i did in my early days. You may have followed my rules for entries, but not the money rules.
I only risk 5% of my bank (maximum) on any trade. Therefore when you had got to $2000 the most you should have been willing to lose was $100 per trade. 2 or 3 losing trades in a day, stop.
The hardest thing for me in forex is discipline. You seem to have the same problem, but worse ! Sorry to sound so harsh, but the truth hurts. Follow the money rules or you will lose the lot.
If you are not sure, go to the lessons section of my main site and read it ALL http://www.forex-fxtrader.com. The secret in forex is to try get rich slowly. 15 pips a day will turn a $1000 into a $1.000.000 in 2 years.