Hi, we can wait weeks sometimes for traders to line up & then (of course everything arrives at once!).
There are loads of potential trades arriving now from both weekly & intraday analysis. In fact there are probably TOO MANY! The $USA has had a steady drip, drip of positive news in recent weeks. That combined with the continuing saga of the Euros woes has seen some big $USA gains across all pairs. So how do we play this?
Cautiously is the answer. Everything looks so obvious now that there is a temptation to dive in and take lots of trades & there is the possibility that most could work, HOWEVER as we are cool, dispassionate, cold hearted forex professionals we are not going to be enticed by this forex temptress!
There is always the chance after such big moves that the $ could simply reverse back down again.
The best way to play this is only be in one trade for or against the $US at any one time OR if you take a number of trades in the same direction make sure that the trades combined do not exceed you usual risk limits.
For example I never risk more than 3% in total for my open trades. Therefore if I decided to short the Gbp/$, Euro/$ & $/Aud then I would only be able to risk 1% per trade.
Of course, once a trade has moved the stop to entry or locked in profit we CAN then open another trade even on a correlated pair.
Weekly Trading Experiment
At the beginning of November we started to test drive my M2 method from my analysis of the weekly charts. The 1st few weeks went well & we had grown our $50,000 account by 5% until we hit a bumpy week and that was reduced to a 2% gain.
I explained at the beginning that when you test a new method it can take many, many months to devise a clear strategy & there is always the possibility that eventually the method will not work & you move on to the next idea.
You can see the statistics & the pending orders that I will place after the market opens here. Also you will be able to see when/if I cancel or adjust anything: Weekly Experiment Statistics
Please watch the video below for my analysis for the week ahead.
Welcome to the free Weekly Analysis. If you want analysis like this every day, please visit Forex Mentor Pro.
Hi, These are difficult, crazy & unpredictable markets at the moment. Some of you take dozens of trades in a week. I take as few as I need to make my weekly profit target of 100 pips minimum & then become very conservative in taking any trades later in the week.
I used to trade 15 minute charts for up to 12 hours a day, for which my back will never forgive me Dean on the other hand has always traded longer term charts which often results in taking no trades sometimes for weeks on end.
In recent back tests he has discovered that if he simply left trades running once stops have moved to entry he would have doubled his account from only a few trades in a YEAR!
In a recent experiment he has back tested this theory & found that ONE trade taken in January this year, with only a 35 pip stop loss would have doubled his account if he had only let it run!
This is the mindset we should all be aiming for. I still struggle with it as I can’t sit and watch trades that were 100′s of pips in front be taken out, sometimes at a loss. This is my biggest problem with the current weekly research/ experiment we have been conducting (see below the video for the update).
Current Markets
I have had quite a few newer members asking me to explain what is going on in the currency markets at the moment. The simple answer is indecision. Nobody seems able to decide which currencies economy is in the bigger mess, so in the meantime the herd swings wildly up one day & down the next. The slightest hint of a rumour & we lurch off in another direction.
I warned a couple of days ago that I was going into “wait and see mode”. Why? Many pundits were predicting a big $US recovery & I showed how big daily & monthly trend lines were being broken, but I was not convinced. A member sent me a quotation to the effect that a change of direction in the currency market was similar to an aircraft carrier doing a 360º turn, ie very slow & steady.
Its not helped by the fact that world finance ministers are trying to resolve the crisis by methods that have never been seen before on a global scale, namely the largest economies are simply printing more money.
The Blind Leading the Blind?
All of this does lead one to question the logic of our leaders.
“Dr. Bernanke unfortunately does not understand economics, he does not understand currencies, he does not understand finance. All he understands is printing money…. His whole intellectual career has been based on the study of printing money. Give the guy a printing press, he’s going to run it as fast as he can,” said hedge fund legend Jim Rogers.
“The low price Gordon Brown (then British Chancellor/Finance Minister) got for selling our gold wasn’t caused by bad luck. It was a staggering display of economic incompetence that has landed taxpayers with a £7 billion black hole.” In brief, Brown warned in advance that he was going to sell the UK’s gold reserves. The gold market was in the doldrums anyway & where did his announcement of a huge increase in the supply take price? You guessed it!
To see the full article on the staggering incompetence of this sale click here: Daily Telegraph
Thankfully this charmless politician who presided over the economic boom years in the UK with the catch phrase “prudence” has now left office. This is not intended to be a political statement on my behalf, I admit to voting for Tony Blair before I emigrated from the UK. Something my ex business partner reminds me almost daily, 13 years later
It does make you wonder though as to the calibre of our “leaders” who are supposed to be steering us through this economic mayhem. There is a video clip thats been doing the rounds this week on you tube where one explanation of quantitive easing is offered.
I have not posted it here as there is some mild profanity & I do not under any circumstances want members to think I am making political statements, BUT if its true about Goldman Sachs involvement in the sale of treasury bonds, back to the treasury then its difficult to wonder what is going on in the world!
If you wish to view the video go to you tube and type in “quantitative easing explained”
The Forex Traders Week Ahead
In recent weeks we have had some incredibly small moves on many pairs. Last weeks Euro/$ opened and closed within 20 pips, as did the Aud and the Cad has done the same on the monthly so far! So how can we possibly calculate the direction of price in the coming days? With great difficulty.
My best advice for the week ahead is that we concentrate on daily charts & smaller. However there is a mixture of big scheduled news, eg FOMC, big non scheduled: The Irish crisis, Portugal & possibly Spain & Japanese Bank Holiday on Tuesday & the slight matter of Thanksgiving long weekend for many which starts on Thursday.
As a result we will have to try & steer our way around these announcements & definitely do not be in more than one Euro trade at any one time. Hence todays blog title: A forex Minefield – When Less is More.
If you are new to forex you would be best advised to spend your time studying the videos in the forex education section. Markets never stay like this long term, learn to wait for more predictable ones to return. As I point out in the video, you are going to have to use your own discretion on most pairs this week.
The best potential I can see is that there are quite a few daily triangle break outs developing as I show in the video.
M1
May be best bet tomorrow. Keep watching around London open
Lmt
Continues to be unreliable at the moment. Not using.
Gbp/$
Price continues to move through 1.6000 and teasingly closed below there on Friday. I am now more interested in possible triangle break out as shown in the video. 1.5850 is critical for me. Either look for bounces off again (it’s a daily trend line, 61.8% weekly fib & daily 55ema) or if it breaks look for an M2 break out pullback for a short.
Euro/$
What ever you do, make sure you are not in any Euro Trade around 16.00 hours London time when Mr Trichet delivers an important speech.
Almost impossible to predict at the moment due to the fact that the Irish Government could make an announcement at any time. Its hard enough to try steer around scheduled news but this could be dynamite & we can only guess which is not trading but gambling.
Chf/$
For the last 4 weeks price has bounced between 0.9920 & 1.000 either look for bounces here OR wait for standard M2 break out/pullbacks. A break above 1.000 means you need to wait for a candle to close (4 hour or daily) then wait for a pullback with a view to long.
$/Yen
Has bounced off 83.60 for the last 4 days. A break & close above there would be my favoured trade, M2 pullback. If it starts to go back down it needs to close below the daily 55ema
Aud/$
Keep watching gold for clues. Has bounced between 0.9910 & 0.9720 in recent days, so either look for the same again or break outs and pullbacks.
0.9720 area looks tempting for a long.
Aud/jpy
Bouncing between 82.85 & 81.35. Personally would be most interested if price broke and closed above 83.00 for a long
Euro/Gbp
I would like to short at 0.8600 but the risk reward is not good enough as explained in the video. Instead I will be looking for a bounce back down from 0.8900 if it gets there later in the week or break out/pullbacks of the triangle, see video.
Euro/Yen
Possible 5700 pip triangle break on the monthly is back in play! We have been watching this for 6 months now, it does look as though it is going to break this time.
From the monthly we need to wait until next week, BUT a pullback to 113.40 tomorrow would be good for me to long. Possibly for one of Deans “Do Nothing” long term trades.
Cad
Its all over the place and some wicked spikes. Only area of interest is 1.0300. Only interested in a short
Weekly Trade experiment
We were doing so well! 5% up after 3 weeks with very low risk trades. Unfortunately last weeks indecision resulted on losing 3% of that gain, however that was because we followed strict money management rules, maximum 1% risk per trade, hence a bad week does not destroy or seriously damage an account.
I said at the beginning of this experiment that this is a test run & we will need to adjust our strategy & rules as we go along. As I have explained above I think it would be extremely unwise to try place trades based on weekly analysis this week due to the indecision & the news & the various bank holidays.
Having said that see the video for a potential MONTHLY 5700 pip move, now THAT would be nice Have a great week, regards, Marc
My daily analysis is only available to members of of Forex Mentor Pro. If you would like to join, please click here.
Hi, We had an influx of new members last week, welcome to the club! I hope you are enjoying your time with us & most importantly learning how to trade forex. The site redesign is almost complete & I am in the process of updating my M2 section videos to try & make it simpler for first time visitors & old timers alike
An added resource that is available to members is free intra day advice & updates from our resident professional, full time, home trader, Pierre. You can find him & fellow members on the private area of the forum which is here : Forex Mentor pro members only forum
Weekly Experiment
Since we started the experiment three weeks ago we have grown the account by 5% placing orders on a Sunday. It would have been 7% had it not been for my silly mistake last week where I told you the stop & I put mine in the wrong place, groan!
Each order has a maximum risk of 1% of the opening balance of $50.000 so this is low risk, low maintenance trading. I get the impression that quite a few of you are simply blindly following & copying the orders, but that is not the aim of this trial. As you know we are NOT a tipping service. We are here to teach you how to do this for yourself, so you have a skill that you can use for the rest of your life.
Rules (so far)
The other thing is that it is an experiment. I have not traded these longer time frames before so I am learning & re writing the rules as I go along. Yes its the M2 method, which does work on many time frames, but each one has its own idiosyncrasies & therefore we need to wait until the experiment is over & clear rules have been developed & written down.
One of those rules we devised last week is that we still need to pay attention to major scheduled news & cancel orders or move stops accordingly. Particularly for releases like the FOMC, interest rate decisions etc & ESPECIALLY NFP. I never trade it anyway but this is a definite no no for weekly trades as well.
Another rules is to not open trades after the New York open on a Friday & do not leave trades open over the weekend unless you are at least 100/150 pips in profit. This is in case price “gaps” at market open and jumps over your stop. It doesn’t happen often, but it can be very scary & its not nice!
The main rule is that we only take trades that we calculate have a greater than 1:2 risk reward ratio. In other words for every $1 we risk we need to see a potential, minimum, $2 profit return.
Stops to entry at 100 pips (50 on Euro/Gbp) at which point I take 50% profit off the table. Other longer term traders simply leave the trade to run, but I was taken out of a few trades in recent weeks that were 100+ pips in profit at one point & then went back to get taken out at entry: I HATE to see that happen & it does not sit well with me. This depends on your mentality & you would have to choose what you thought best suits your personality.
Some of you freak out when you see the size of the stops but that is not important. We still risk the same % of our account per trade. So if you usually risk $100 on a trade with a 50 pip stop, that is $2 per pip you risk. If its a 100 pip stop its simply $1 a pip, the $ amount risked is still $100. To calculate how much to risk per trade there is a great little free tool you can download here: Free risk calculator
One of the main problems I have had in recent weeks has been correlation. As you know many pairs are correlated (the Euro/$ & The Chf for instance go in the opposite direction 90+% of the time) so in effect you are taking the same “bet” twice if you do both at once.
Last week I cancelled the Euro/Yen trade because the Aud/Yen opened. It went on to win BUT I could not take both at once. This week I have dropped the Euro/Yen for this reason & I am wary about the Yens in general. The one I like the look of most is the Aud/Yen as explained in the video.
The $/Yen is in a long term down trend BUT looks bullish at the moment I still will look to short at 83.00 BUT I will halve my stake.
If you are not familiar with the concept of correlation then it is explained & you can check out the pairs here at this great free resource: Correlation Tool
You can see the statistics & the pending orders that I will place after the market opens here. Also you will be able to see when/if I cancel or adjust anything: Weekly Experiment Statistics
Analysis of Weekly Charts
Due to the weekend rumour machine working over time re the Irish Governments money worries Euro it is quite possible that there could be big gaps at the market open for all euro related pairs. If it gaps below 1.3510 I will leave it alone & wait for the dust to settle during the London session.
Gbp/$
Weekly ExperimentPrice is still above1.6000 which was a standard M2 move.
I am looking for a pullback to 1.6010 with a view to a long. Stop @ 1.5945 target 1.6195
I will do my usual method of taking 50% profit at 1.6100, stop to entry and balance to run, overall target 1.6200.
Half stake short 1.6225 stop at 1.6315 Target 1.6010, stop to entry after 100 pips and profit taking along the way.
Euro/$
Whichever order this or Chf fires 1st, cancel the other order.I said last week that: Last year the Euro tanked around this time. The Euro woes have not gone away & Irish problems could resurface this week. Even though price has closed above 1-4000 I have a “gut feeling” that this may fall down . It fell 500 pips!
Weekly the areas to consider for me are: Looking to short at 1.3990, stop at 1.4120 target 1.3655
Half stake Long at 1.3510 stop at 1.3435 Target 1.3810 This is riskier than I like BUT there are fibs, lots of emas support & resistance in there, so could hold. If it breaks this area then I will look for M2 shorts during the week, a break and close below & then a pullback.
Chf/$
I am only interested to short. 0.9990 is the area for me with my stop at 1.0075 & my initial target at 0.9855. I will scale out there & leave some balance to run, hoping to catch a bigger move to 0.9600 and below. There is a counter trend opportunity to long at 0.9610 area but not for me
$/Yen
Only interested in shorting but it looks bullish at the moment! So I will halve my stake to 0.5%: Main area is 82.90 Stop at 84.20, stop to entry at 82.10 balance to run. Target 81.10
Aud/$
Keep watching gold for clues, it pulled back last week. Price broke back down through 1.000 last week.I will be looking to short (half stake) at 0.9990 with my stop at 1.0175 target 0.9710
long at 0.9660 stop at 0.9585 Target 0.9990
Aud/jpy
Long 80.10 Stop 79.40 Target 81.9584.20 short 78.6 fib and weekly 200 where I will put my stop above 85.00
Euro/Gbp
Only interested to short.Order to Short at 0.8590 stop 0.8655 and target 0.8310.
Euro/Yen
Leaving This week due to correlation issues
Cad
Only Looking to short. Weekly 1.0200 Stop at 1.0275 target 1.0035
Counter trenders will look to long (not for me) at 1.000 area.
Best of luck, Marc
To View The Video Full Screen, click on the “box” bottom right hand corner of the screen.
Daily Analysis
My daily analysis is only available to members of of Forex Mentor Pro. If you would like to join, please click here.
Hi, its major news for forexmentorpro members. As we constantly strive to give you the best value that we possibly can, Dean has just completed recording a full video “course” where he explains his Simple Trend Trading strategy.
For those of you who are limited by the amount of time you can devote to forex or those who only wish to trade longer term charts (4 hours and above) & with the minimum of indicators, then this could be just what you are looking for.
Dean has also created a separate blog where he can post trades that he is looking to trade & recent trades that he made using this simple strategy. All these sections can be found on the header links at the top of the home page.
The great thing is that Dean & my strategies are both based around the forex basics of support & resistance. We are both looking for areas where price is going to react, either bounces off or break outs. We both prefer to trade with the trend.
If you are new to the site and are part way through the M1 & M2 methods I recommend that you finish that section first & then move on to Deans. The beauty of the M1 & M2 methods is that it suits those of you who are able to trade everyday. Longer time frames like Deans STT & my weekly updates are more suited for those of you with limited time, maybe the job gets in the way etc
Forum Update
Often I get asked to do “updates” during the day, but I simply do not have enough hours in a day. However we have an experienced, full time forex trader – Pierre – who is available to give advice as well as lots of other members who are in there sharing ideas, tips & advice.
Its a free resource & not often do you have chance to share ideas and get advice from full time traders. Its there, use it!
Analysis
Once again I have split the analysis in to two sections. The first is for those of you who are interested in learning how to trade from weekly charts & the second is those looking to trade every day. The thing to note from this is that you simply use the M2 method. Its the same strategy, just the time frames changes.
Also some of you get scared because of the bigger stops BUT you still risk the same amount of money per trade, just reduce the amount staked per pip.
Analysis of Weekly Charts
After 2 weeks we have now grown the account 2% from low risk trades placed at market open (1% maximum risk per trade). Last week I pointed out that we still have to pay attention to major scheduled news. I specifically said to close all pending orders prior to FOMC news as bad $ news would probably mean that old existing support & resistance areas could be smashed.
The Aud was a perfect example of what I said. Price smashed straight through the huge area of 1.000 & kept going.
The other important thing to be aware of is this. If you do decide to leave trades running through major news, make sure that you only have one trade per currency and or correlated pair. For example do not have 2 trades that are directly related to the $USA, if one loses they both lose.
Similarly do not be in two correlated pairs at the same time. A long on the Euro/$ is almost identical to a short on the $/Chf as they go in opposite directions most of the time.
I also showed in last weeks daily updates how you can use news announcements to your advantage if you are already in a profitable trade-
Please remember: We are NOT a tipping service. The aim of this site is to teach you how to do this yourself. The following sets of analysis are simply to show you where an experienced trader is looking for trades and why. I show you how I use the M2 method to look for potential set ups in live markets.
I have published a list of weekly trades, showing entries, stops & targets below the analysis explanation & above the 1st video.
Gbp/$
Price broke and closed above 1.6000 which is a standard M2 where we then look for a pullback to 1.6010 with a view to a long. Stop @ 1.5945I will do my usual method of taking 50% profit at 1.6100, stop to entry and balance to run, overall target 1.6240.Half stake short 1.6685 stop at 1.6755 Target 1.6255, stop to entry after 100 pips and profit taking along the way.
Euro/$
Last year the Euro tanked around this time. The Euro woes have not gone away & Greek & Irish problems could resurface this week. Even though price has closed above 1-4000 I have a “gut feeling” that this may fall down . However I will trade what the charts, not my gut tells me JI see more opportunities on the daily charts as shown in the second video, but weekly the areas to consider for me are:Looking to short at 1.4360 half stake, stop at 1.4525 target 1.4010
Daily: Longs around 1.3830
Chf/$
Worked perfectly last week for overall 300 pip move. I am only interested to short. 0.9920 is the area for me with my stop above last weeks high, so 0.9980 & 0.9610 my target again. There is a counter trend opportunity to long at 0.9470 area but not for me
$/Yen
Only interested in shorting: Main area is 82.90 Stop at 83.55, stop to entry at 82.10 balance to run. Target 81.10
Aud/$
Keep watching gold for clues it made new highs last week. Price smashed through 1.000 last week. A 50% fib pullback of last weeks candle is spookily at 0.99980 to support the move. I will split the long trade in half. long at 1.10010 with a stop at 0.9945. Target 1.0145.2nd part long at 1.0010 stop at 0.9885, target open (for now). This is in case the first part loses. I could not decide which was the best stop.
Aud/jpy
Closed and broke above 81.35 where I will look for a pullback entry.Long 81.40 Stop 80.80 Target 83.2084.20 short 78.6 fib and weekly 200 where I will put my stop above 85.00
Euro/Gbp
Only interested to short. Maybe better trading from daily charts as this is not clear.Order to Short at 0.8730 stop 0.8785 and 1st target 0.8615. Scale out. Stop to entry, balance to run.Counter trenders will look for longs at 0.8600 (not me)
Euro/Yen
More of a daily move, messy on weekly.Yes will long at 112.20 Stop 111.40 1st Target 113.90Stop to entry, 50% profit balance to run for 114.45
I will look to short around 115.50. Stop 116.15. Stop to entry 100 pips and Target 113.60
Cad
Only Looking to short. Weekly 1.0180 Stop at 1.0235 Stop to entry at 100 pipsCounter trenders will look to long (not for me) at 1.000 area.
Best of luck, Marc
Heres an abbreviated list for orders I will place on the demo account at market open, this is research & development NOT for you to blindly copy:
Pair
Buy/Sell
Entry
Stop
Target
Gbp/$
Buy
1.6010
1.5945
1.6240
HALF STAKE
Sell
1.6685
1.6755
1.6255
Euro/$
Buy
1.3830
1.3685
1.4145
Half Stake
Sell
1.4360
1.4525
1.4010
Chf
Sell
0.9920
0.9980
0.9610
Euro/Gbp
Sell
0.8730
0.8785
0.8615
AudSplit in 2
BuyBuy
1.00101.0010
0.99450.9885
1.0145Open for now
Half Stake
Sell
Aud/Jpy
Buy
81.40
80.80
83.20
HALF STAKE
Sell
84.20
85.10
82.55
Euro/Jpy
Buy
112.20
111.40
114.45
Sell
115.40
116.15
113.60
$/Yen
Sell
82.90
83.55
81.10
Cad
Sell
1.0180
1.0255
1.0030
To view the video Full screen, click on the square box, bottom right hand corner of the video frame
Daily Analysis
My daily analysis is only available to members of of Forex Mentor Pro. If you would like to join, please click here.
Hi, We are technical traders. We are trying to use historical patterns to predict future, repeatable moves. We do pay attention to news, but technical analysis is the main stay of what we do here at forexmentorpro.
This week is likely to be a VERY tricky. We have major news announcements every day & the rumour mill is working over time so many of these moves have the potential to be VERY volatile.
For example we have interest rate decisions from the USA, Canada, Britain, Australia, Europe. Last month the Reserve Bank of Australia was widely expected to raise rates. they didn’t and the Aud promptly fell.
In the Uk the British Government has just introduced savage budget cuts & MPC members showed splits last month in both the desire to raise rates and pump more money into the economy. All of this causes great uncertainty so the announcements will be closely scrutinised & could cause wild swings in price. Swings that could simply ignore previous major support & resistance, at least temporarily.
Then for the USA there is a swathe of big news this week, interest rates, unemployment amongst them. There is the slight matter of the FOMC announcement, there is a LOT of speculation that the Fed will pump more money into the economy. If they do this could have huge effect on the $US & equally if they do not!
Many commentators expect them to do something, so this could be already factored into the price so no action could cause volatile swings too!!
The week then ends with the mentrorpro members day off, otherwise known as NFP friday. This is the most dangerous, scheduled news event of the month & I always avoid it.
So how do we play all this?This will be tricky if you are trying to trade from weekly charts as you will have to close/cancel or at least moves stops on trades or orders, depending on the news that is due on a particular day.
Monday is relatively light for news, so I will do my usual thing & try to make my weekly 100 pip minimum target as early in the week as possible. Tuesday is not so bad, but either cancel, close or move stops on anything Aud or Jpy until their interest rate decisions have been released & the dust has settled.
Wednesday is a Japanese bank holiday so I will ignore any Yen trades that day. A recent Bank holiday saw less than 30 pips movement on the $/Yen all day, so probability says that is likely to happen again, so why go looking for boredom/trouble?
Wednesday from the New York open I will avoid anything $USA related. There is a lot of red flag news, culminating in the FOMC statement. What usually happens there is that a few hours before the FOMC release, price stagnates and then, depending on the announcement we could have wild swings that could carry on all the way through to the London open on Thursday.
Thursday sees British & European interest rate decisions, reports & press conferences and USA employment statistics.
Friday is NFP – No Forex Please
Last week we concentrated mainly on trades placed from my weekly analysis. This week we will return to normal where I will show you areas I am looking at on a daily basis, but I will do brief updates on the weekly trades as & when there is anything I need to report.
In the first video I show you the results from last week, the 1st in our experiment of trading solely from weekly charts. The good news is that the account is in profit, though only 1.3% closed trades + another 0.8% in open trades. To keep up with the statistics & trades click here: MT4i Stats Weekly Trades
In the start of this first video I show you how I managed the trades, mistakes I made that we need to avoid for the future & where to look for trades for the week ahead, however the week ahead is not a great one for potential weekly trades for the reasons mentioned above.
As always we have lots of major news including FOMC on Wednesday ( I made a mistake in the video and said Tuesday), interest rate decisions, and culminating in “do anything but forex Friday” NFP news.
If you do take weekly trades then I explain in the video (and in the write up above) what I will do to attempt to circumnavigate these announcements.
Analysis based on weekly charts for the week ahead:
Despite my reservations these are the areas I will looking for & to place orders at market open. Remember we are NOT a tipping service, we do not make trade recommendations. Our aim is to teach you how to do this for yourselves & this is an experiment. Do NOT copy these trades. Study where & why I am looking for entries so that you can learn to do this for yourselves.
Remember I made a mistake & said FOMC was Tuesday it is actually WEDNESDAY this month
To see the video full screen, click on the square in the bottom right hand corner.
Daily & 4 Hour Intra day Analysis
As detailed above the news is likely to control most pairs this week. Many pairs are range bound and big, surprise news could give us break outs, spikes, the works!
Make sure you do not have orders placed or open with big stops around these announcements. Also many pairs are bouncing between relatively small areas so do not be greedy, move stops to entry after 25/30 pips and consider taking some profit there as well.
M1 This is a strange week for this method. European clocks move back this weekend so we will need to adjust the open/close times of the boxes, WAIT until next week when the USA & Canada do the same and then every body will be in psync.Continues to be hit & miss. If the overnight range is too big, the good thing is you just walk away. Continues to keep me out of losing trades & a few decent winners each week,
Lmt
Continues to be unreliable at the moment. Price seems to up one day & down the next on many pairs I am not using it at the moment. If you decide to use in the next few days, make sure you follow the advanced rules: LMT Advanced Rules.
Gbp/$ Price broke and closed above 1.6000 which is a standard M2 where we then look for a pullback to 1.6000 with a view to a long BUT I am a little wary with this. Stop below 1.5950 @ 1.5945 I will do my usual method of taking some profit at 30 pips area, stop to entry and balance to run, if it does carry on upwards will struggle to break through previous high/resistance at 1.6100.
If clears there then I will consider a 50% reduced stake short around 1.6250 which is weekly 78.6% fib.
If price pulls back down further I will be very interested to long around 1.5800/30 where we have multiple emas, previous support & resistance and a daily trend line.
Euro/$Head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart suggest possible 400 pip move down after a break of the neck line, as shown in the SECOND video.
The rest of my video & written analysis for tomorrow & the daily updates that are helping members of my mentor group learn & earn from forex is only available to subscribers. This low cost analysis, tips & advice is helping people like you become profitable traders, if you would like to find out more & how I can help you succeed, click on the following banner link, best of luck, Marc;
Hi, lots of carnage & chaos last week in various pairs on smaller time frames and yet if you look at the weekly charts most things seemed to proceed fairly logically. Last week end I posted two sets of analysis, weekly & daily. I have done the same again this week, but with a twist:
As an experiment I have created a demo account and attached mt4i stats so we can all take a look at the trades/results statistics etc. This is an experiment. We are NOT a tipping service & I am not an experienced trader of weekly charts so this has as much chance of being a complete flop as a raving success!!
I have set up the charts & will place the orders at market open : Weekly Analysis Test Account One potential problem is knowing how much overall risk to place on trades. Its highly likely that not all trades will fire, so for ease of use I will risk 1% of the $50.000 per trade. I will not place Chf trades at the same time as Euro/$ as they are virtually the same “bet” so I will choose the one one that looks the best.
I will show you in tomorrows video how to use/interpret mt4i stats, it really is a great piece of free software.
DO NOT under any circumstances copy these trades on a “live” account.
What we will do is look to test/tweak the stops, targets/ strategies over the coming weeks. This research & development may take many, many months before we have something that is consistently profitable. Equally it may not work & we move on to something else.
Forex Gap Trading
This year I have been involved with the testing of 4 or 5 new strategies, only one of which has been successful. This is a “Forex gap trading” method that has been phenomenally successfully, but it has taken a huge amount of time and effort, a very experienced programmer and late, late Sunday nights.
Due to liquidity problems we can not offer this Forex Gap trading method to many people due to the fact that we have to manage each account individually (trade copiers are unreliable due to the lack of liquidity at market open) here are the stats just from the beginning of the summer period: Forex Gap Trading Results non members temporary password (PIN) is: 1929
As you can see we have achieved an average return of 18%+ PER MONTH! We also have results going back almost a year on a smaller “live” account where, complete with mistakes & technical problems we still managed a VERY healthy 13.7% per month!
Forex Gap Trading
How to Register for Forex Gap Trading
If any members are interested in us trading this Forex Gap trading method for them, it has to be a minimum account size of $20.000 (no exceptions) – due to the reasons explained above. If you are interested then email me for more details: admin@forex-fxtrader.com
Webinar
I live on a small Island off the west coast of Africa. Unfortunately my internet connection is not good enough (think of tin cans & string to do regular webinars. We will have one more attempt this coming Friday. If we still have sound problems then Dean & I are working on something that will enhance everyone’s forexmentorpro membership, especially for those of you who are interested in trading off longer time-frames.
Dean is going to take a more active role in demonstrating his simple price action techniques. We will let you know next week when hopefully our site redesign is completed.
Weekly Analysis
Please find the video below. I will enter the trades, targets & stops on the demo account so you can see them all there. I have also set the trade manager to move the stops to entry on all pairs at 50 pips and take 35% of the profit at that point.
There are huge correlation issues here as well, so I may well cancel some trades if another opens eg if the Euro/$ opens first I will cancel the Chf & vice versa. As the weeks go forward I will revise possible targets etc
I REPEAT AGAIN: WE ARE NOT A TIPPING SERVICE: THIS IS A “REAL TIME” EXPERIMENT
Pair
Buy/Sell
Entry
Stop
Target
Gbp/$
Buy
1.5565
1.5475
1.5980
Sell
1.5590
1.6120
1.5670
Euro/$
Buy
1.3525
1.3380
1.3990
Sell
1.4115
1.4220
1.3525
Chf
Sell
0.9895
1.0020
0.9560
Euro/Gbp
Buy
0.8810
0.8760
0.8970
Weaker
Sell
0.8912
0.8955
0.8755
Aud
Buy
0.9745
0.9645
0.9980
Sell
0.9980
1.0020
0.9755
Aud/Jpy
Buy
79.35
78.60
81.20
Sell
81.20
82.20
79.35
Euro/Jpy
Buy
112.20
111.45
114.60
Sell
114.70
115.75
112.30
$/Yen
Sell
82.95
83.55
81.35
Cad
Sell
1.0380
1.0455
1.0155
Daily & 4 Hour Analysis
Some of you get very confused when we look at different time frames. The reason is very simple. The above weekly analysis may result in no trades being opened this week. If you are trading full time/every day then you need to look for opportunities on the smaller time scales. By definition there will be more opportunities. My most profitable chart is the 4 hour. You usually get a few chances per pair per day.
M1
Hit & miss. If the overnight range is too big, the good thing is you just walk away. Continues to keep me out of losing trades & a few decent winners last week,
Lmt
This is unreliable at the moment. Price seems to up one day & down the next on many pairs I am not using it at the moment. If you decide to use in the next few days, make sure you follow the advanced rules.
Gbp/$
4 hour has lots more opportunities, price can go up and then down which gives more chances intraday. : 1.5750 & 1.5800 are major areas for me. These areas for shorts, but if price breaks & closes above 1.5800 then I will be looking to long.
Euro/$
Looking to short at 1.3990
Daily: Longs around 1.3830
Chf/$
Only interested in a short. Main area is 0.9900/9920
$/Yen
Mainly interested in shorting: Main area is 83.00 BUT possible break up/pullback as shown in the video
Aud/$
Keep watching gold for clues. It pulled back on Friday, If gold pullsback to 1300 then a strong bounce will be expected the Aud usually follows. I will be looking for clues to long at 0.9750. I will be especially interested if price gets down to 0.9730 for a long.
Counter trend traders will consider shorts at 0.9900 not me this time! & more so at 1.000
Aud/jpy
Price has repeatedly bounced off 81.35 & it worked a treat again last week. This pair is currently range bound. If price gets back down to 79.30 area I am looking to long. Eventually It will break out, when it does look for candle close and pullbacks.
Euro/Gbp
Sat on weekly 78.6 fib. Shorters will be looking at 0.8890 & those wishing to long at 0.88300. If price breaks & CLOSES above 78.6 fib tomorrow then that signals a reversal to me & I would change my bias to long
Euro/Yen
112.20 Is the main area for me to consider a long & then possible short around 114.50.
Best of Luck, Marc
Like this analysis? Why not join Forex Mentor Pro? Just click the image below for more details.
In today’s video I have tried to concentrate on longer time frames. Member Karl tells me that he has made over a 1000 pips in recent months simply from my weekly analysis. The principle is exactly the same for whichever time frame you choose to trade.
We are simply looking for areas where price has previously reacted is likely to do so again: Previous support & resistance. Fib levels, emas, psychological levels eg 1.600 on Gbp, 1.400 on the Euro/$ etc.
To those of you who are new, please remember we are NOT a tipping service. Our aim is to teach you how to do this for yourselves. If you learn the M1 & M2 levels then you have the opportunity to see how I use those to plan for the day (s) ahead.
M1
Hit & miss. If the overnight range is too big, the good thing is you just walk away. Continues to keep me out of losing trades & a few decent winners last week,
Lmt
This is unreliable at the moment. Price seems to up one day & down the next on many pairs I am not using it at the moment. If you decide to use in the next few days, make sure you follow the advanced rules: LMT Advanced Rules: http://www.forexmentorpro.com/members/advancedlmt/lmt-advanced-manual.pdf
Gbp/$
Weekly areas are longs at 1.5600 area which is support & resistance, trend line, daily & weekly emas & 50% fib not far below at 1.5550 so stop below there for me.Daily: Major area for a pullback is 1.5720 to long for multiple reasons (all these areas are explained in the video), Shorts at 1.6100, highly unlikely for me.
4 hour has lots more opportunities, price can go up and then down which gives more chances intraday. : 1.5850 & 1.5900 are major areas for me.
Other option is of course if price breaks higher we look for our standard M2 break out, candle close, followed by a pullback.
Euro/$
Weekly: 1.3500 for longs. 1.4150 for shorts (not for me). Or same areas break outs then pullbacksDaily: Longs around 1.3800
4 Hour: In recent weeks, prior to Thursday & Friday Price has simply been bouncing from 1.3900 to 1.400, these areas will be important again either for bounces or M2 trades.
Chf/$
Only interested in a short. Main area is 0.9900/9920
$/Yen
Only interested in shorting: Main area is 83.00
Aud/$
Keep watching gold for clues. It pulled back on Friday, If gold carries on ever higher the Aud usually follows. I will be looking for clues to long at 0.9800. I will be especially interested if price gets down to 0.9730 for a long.Counter trend traders will consider shorts at 1.000, not me this time!
Aud/jpy
Price has repeatedly bounced off 81.35 & it worked a treat again last week. This pair is currently range bound. If price gets back down to 79.80 & definitely 79.25 area I will be tempted to long. Eventually It will break out, when it does look for candle close and pullbacks.
Euro/Gbp
Sat on weekly 61.8 fib. Shorters will be looking at 0.8830 & 0.8900.Weekly I am looking for clues to long at 0.8575.
Tomorrow may only get to 0.8650. Final option of course is if it breaks & closes above 0.8835 standard M2
Euro/Yen
112.00 Is the main area for me to consider a long and if the upper Bollinger closes then possible short around 115.00. Also 113.40 has been important support & resistance in recent weeks.
Best of Luck, Marc
Like this analysis? Join Forex Mentor Pro today! Just click the image below for more details.
“The market will find it has been selling the rumor and will rush to buy the fact,” when the Fed begins fresh purchases, said Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency research in London at BNP Paribas.
“Everybody sits in the same boat and is heavily negative the dollar. When too many people are sitting in a boat it’s no longer safe.”
We have been wondering for weeks if the current demise of the dollar will stop & rebound (it WILL but of course the problem is when). We are now in crucial areas.
The Aud is at its highest point ever and only 150 pips from 1:1. The Cad is again nearing 1:1. The Chf is bouncing along its lowest ever point.
The $/Yen was last down here 15 years ago (remember the “experts in May who were saying this would hit 1:1 & even 1.50 before Christmas – gotta love “experts” Gold is at its highest point ever. I could go on………
So is this the end for the $USA? Of course not, if nothing else its in no-ones interests, even the United States traditional enemies, or shall we say competitors in the modern world, China, oil rich countries, Russia etc dont want the dollar to collapse. Why, because they sell many of their exports in $US and therefore if the $US tanks so do their reserves!
China is thought to be sat on 4 TRILLION $USA in cash & bonds & it needs a weak Yuan to keep exporting to its biggest market the USA. Oh what a tangled web!
So where does it leave us?
There are plenty of clues that the $ is due a rebound (macd divergence on lots of pairs is just one), but we are only looking for 20 pips a day/100 pips a week. What we need is movement and we have had plenty of late which is great.
What we need to do is continue to follow what the charts tell us. If a pair is in a clear uptrend then continue to look for pullbacks and go with that trend.
If you do decide to go counter trend then reduce your stake and only be in one trade at a time. I actually shorted the Aud at market open today. A friend & I have developed a gap method that is working well & the Aud gapped & came within a few pips of last weeks all time high so I shorted. I know, I broke ALL my rules, but until you are consistantly profitable it is better if you “do what I say, not do as I do”!
The week ahead.
We are at THE major area on lots of pairs as I show in the video, so be EXTRA careful.
Tuesday is the first chance for Asian traders to give their vote on Fridays NFP news and all the worlds traders should be back at their desks. Most pairs have been predictably quiet today so we should get lots of movement tomorrow. There are a LOT of speeches by the top financial guys this week, all of this could well be intended to talk the $ back up and there is the slight matter of the FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow at 19.00 hours, London time.
What usually happens on FOMC day is that price will become range bound a few hours before the release and then has the potential to go haywire if anything unexpected is announced. DO NOT PLACE TRADES A FEW HOURS BEFORE OR DURING THIS NEWS RELEASE.
M1
Started to do well again. Continues to keep me out of losing trades & some decent winners last week,
Lmt
I prefer the 4 hour signals at the moment. If you decide to use in the next few days, make sure you follow the advanced rules: LMT Advanced Rules
Gbp/$
Cable has been range bound and simply bouncing between 1.5720 and 1.6000 & struggling each time at 1.5900. There are lots of clues that this MAY be going to change direction. 5/8 crosses, macd divergence on multiple time frames, stochastics rolling over etc
As I show in the video this is now at a crucial area. For a number of reasons I am interested in longing at 1.5860 area, trend line, 61.8% weekly fib etc. If it breaks through there then 1.5800 is the next strong area to consider. Unless it breaks and closes below 1.5800 I am going to favour a long.
Counter trend traders will be interested in shorting at 1.6000
Euro/$
Almost identical set up to the Gbp/$. These pairs are often correlated and for that reason I would not take trades on both at the same time.
Price is currently trying to break back down, but this could be todays illiquid markets. I will wait for the London open and see which way things develop then. A the moment I favour longs around 1.3900 for multiple reasons but NOT until after the Asian session has at least started.
If price breaks below then may only go as far as 1.5800 where price has bounced repeatedly in the last month
Counter trend traders will consider shorting if a break below 1.3900 closes below. Other counter trend area is of course 1.4000 where price rejected today.
Chf/$
Not Trading as it is at an extreme low & The Swiss National Bank may intervene & send it rocketing back up.
BUT a pullback to 0.9700/might interest me asit was a MAJOR previous support & resistance area
$/Yen
Not intending to trade yen pairs.
BUT
I may be interested in a short if price pulls back to 83.50 area.
Aud/$
Keep watching gold for clues. If gold carries on ever higher the Aud usually follows. I will be looking for clues to long at 0.9800. Counter trend traders will consider shorts at 0.9900, not me this time!
Aud/jpy
Another frustrating one, price has repeatedly bounced off 81.35 but that’s counter trend. If price gets back down to 78.80 & definitely 79.25 area I will be tempted to long. Eventually It will break out, when it does look for candle close and pullbacks.
Euro/Gbp
Also at 61.8% Weekly fib. 0.8720 is huge on this pair for me. Either a bounce back up to long OR wait for price to break and close below to short and then look for a pullback.
Cad
I have a love hate relationship with this pair BUT have done very well recently. Only interested to short and 1.02600 is the main area to look for clues.
Hi, I show in the first part of todays video how those of us who want to trade the longer time-frames could have made substantial profits just from trades made on the WEEKLY charts!. The great thing about the M2 method is that it does work on any time frame. Recently I have shied away from the bigger timeframes due to the lack of follow through, however that has changed in recent weeks and we need to look for more opportunities.
The first week of the month is traditionally when we have the most scheduled, potentially volatile news. This week will be no exception. This volatility needs to be handled carefully so that you can avoid losing trades and have the chance to catch winners.
I do not trade the news, nor take trades before or around the announcement. However I check my calendar before I take a trade and then wait for the release to come out and the initial surge to settle down and then see if price will pullback to areas I have previously analysed as being important.
Last Wednesday I told you this about the Aud:
“Aud: BIG Aussie news at 02.30am London time, building approvals month on month. We have a LOT of Aussie members, many of whom tell me there is a potential housing bubble about to burst in Australia – this you will recall is what preceded the 2008 crashes in many countries, so wait for this. If its particularly bad, the Aud could tumble. Price kept kept going today, if the news is as expected or not too bad a pullback around 0.9650 will have me looking for clues to long.”
What happened? The news came out worse than expected, price pulled back to 0.9658 in the London session (5 hours after the news) & bounced back up almost 100 pips. That is a good example of planning the trade & trading the plan & how you can use the news to your advantage without being part of the chaos that usually occurs around the time of the actual announcement.
This weeks news: We have a huge combination of interest rate decisions, speeches, fundamentals and then monster Friday: NFP. In recent months I have managed to make my weekly target by Tuesday, Wednesday at the latest. Price on a Thursday usually starts to stagnate and then Friday does nothing until the NFP release when it all goes crazy.
Speeches
I don’t like trading when speeches are due as you never know what the big guys are going to say next. Last week I explained in this article:http://www.forexmentorpro.com/members/blog/?p=2350 that many countries do not want their currencies to be too strong & therefore they may start to try & “talk it down”.
There was a perfect example of this last week when a minor member of the British financial hierarchy made comments at an even more minor meeting in Hull of all places & the Gbp fell 200 pips!!
Mr Bernanke & other Fed members are also scheduled for numerous speeches.
There are a lot of speeches this week so it is imperative that you check your calendars before making trades. The danger is there will be unscheduled announcements as well, but we can do nothing about that except don’t be in too many trades at once and don’t for example be against the $Usa for more than 3% of your overall risk.
$ Weakness
I have also explained on a number of occasions that the current strength of many currencies is not that they are doing particularly well, but its more of a case of $US weakness. CFTC figures released on Friday show that net $ shorts rose from $14 Billion to $22 Billion last week. If this was to carry on then eventually there will be no one with anything left to sell! Those with a head for figures can read them all here in this Reuters article: Reuters re CFTC Figures
Last time there were so many shorting the $ was in 2008 just before the Euro tanked. Is it going to happen again soon? Who knows but Europe’s economy is in a fragile state & many of the smaller countries would have solved this current crisis by devaluing their currency. The problem now is that whilst Germany’s economy is getting better too many of the smaller states are in a shambles.
Could the Euro be on the brink of a break up?
Here is a very interesting article here from the Uk’s Daily Telegraph article where Joseph Stiglitz, former Head of the World Bank warns that the Euro currency may not survive! You can read the full article here:Joseph Stiglitz, Why the Euro may not survive
What does it mean for us?
The great thing for us is that all this speculation will create lots of movement & mean that we should have lots of opportunities to make profitable trades. Without movement we have nothing. With it, as long as learn to read the signals, there will be loads of opportunities in the coming months.
M1
Started to do well again. Continues to keep me out of losing trades & some decent winners last week,
Lmt
I prefer the 4 hour signals at the moment. There are a lot of Daily signals likely to fire tomorrow & Tuesday, but although we had a few winning trades last week on the daily. I didn’t take due to the uncertainty. If you decide to use in the next few days, make sure you follow the advanced rules: LMT Advanced Ruleshttp://www.forexmentorpro.com/members/advancedlmt/lmt-advanced-manual.pdf
Gbp/$
The deputy governor of the Bank of England is making a speech mid morning, London time, be especially careful then.Cable is currently range bound and simply bouncing between 1.5720 and 1.5900. I favour longs at 1.5720. Counter trend trades will be looking to short at 1.5900. Both worked last week on numerous occasions.
If price breaks these ranges then look for break outs followed by pullbacks. Break outs in either direction could be limited. 1.6000 is not far above and will be a huge hurdle to break.
Euro/$
Has moved up 1100 pips in September and Fridays candle closed without a wick which is unusual and usually suggests further movement in the same direction.Some of you may consider a “Plan B” move: http://www.forexmentorpro.com/members/blog/?p=1435
Personally I will wait for my preferred pullbacks. The ideal would be 1.3500 but that is a long way behind at the moment, so I will look for clues around 1.3600 where I have a daily trend line & previous support & resistance. If you look at the 4 hour chart in the video 1.3650 area has also been important. The Euro has been bursting upwards and then moving side ways in a mini range for a few days at a time, it may do so again
Chf/$
Not Trading where it is now as it is at an extreme low & The Swiss National Bank may intervene & send it rocketing back up. BUT a pullback to 0.9850/80 would interest me again. It worked a few times in recent days.
$/Yen
Not trading yen pairs. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Friday renewed his threat to intervene in currency markets to cap the strong yen, last time they intervened the reverse was huge & quick. Its gambling not trading, only for those with big pockets & strong stomachs
Aud/$
Gold broke and closed above the huge area of 1300. The Aud is closely correlated with Gold so you would watch gold for clues. Aud stopped on Friday at the double top area I pointed out last week.I am only looking to long. I need a pullback. 0.9600 is a good area to look for clues. Counter trend traders (not me J will be encouraged by the macd divergence on the 4 hour chart and price did bounce off 0.9720 5 or 6 times last week, watch gold for clues.
Euro/Aud
In a daily down trend. Price broke and closed above the daily 61.8% fib at 1.4140 which was also previous support & resistance. It does look bullish on most time frames so if you are looking to long, that would be the logical place. I prefer to short until it breaks and closes above the 78.6 fib at 1.4275 and there is an old daily trend line just above there, so that’s my main point of interest.
Euro/Yen
Not trading Yen pairs. Very frustrating due to the BoJ’s threat to intervene. Normally I would look to long at 113.50 area
Aud/jpy
Not trading Yen Pairs. Another frustrating one, price has repeatedly bounced off 81.35 but that’s counter trend. If price gets back down to 79.25 area I will be tempted! I will have to decide on the day.
Euro/Gbp
Weekly traders will be interested to long at 0.8600. Break & close above last week. It’s the psych level, previous support & resistance and 50% fib of the weekly candle is near so lots of reasons!
Best of Luck, Marc
To get analysis like this 5 days a week, and for an arsenal of trading systems and training, why not join Forex Mentor Pro? To join, just click the image below:
“If I had to select one quality, one personal characteristic that I regard as being most highly correlated with success, whatever the field, I would pick the trait of persistence.” Richard De Vos, co-founder of Amway
Last week it was not easy to be a profitable forex trader, however towards the end of the week, things started to settle down & become a little more predictable, so hopefully the coming week will be a better one.
I started my first business when I was 20 years old. My family had no money so it was all done on a shoe string, borrowed products, a small line of credit from a supplier and I was driving around in a 10 year old car with a hole in the wing. When I visited a potential customer I would park well away from their premises.
This was horrible as I was selling heavy cash registers. Competitors had nice new cars that they pulled up outside of the front door. I was the one struggling down the street, arriving sweating & out of breath.
On more than one occasion clients offered to help me carry stuff to the car. I can still see the horror on their faces when they saw my old heap! I even told one guy that my car must have been stolen as he leant upon my wreck!
I had been working for another company for a year. I thought that the boss was an idiot (he was) & that I could do better. My earnings more than halved in the first year and on more than one occasion I got very close to going bust. What kept me going? A burning desire to succeed (aka Napoleon Hills, “Think & Grow Rich”)* AND PERSEVERANCE.
Years later when I started two subsequent businesses there were similar hurdles to overcome. All eventually succeeded, but none were easy and all had very difficult phases when things looked bleak.
The same was when I started trading forex. It took me 3 YEARS to crack the thing. It drove me absolutely nuts. I almost packed it in, but i KNEW there was money to be made here.
I also had the further incentive that I had emigrated with my young family and if I failed it would mean returning home with my tail between my legs. So a “burning desire” & persistence finally got me to my goal. If you want to succeed at this (or anything important in your life) then you need:
A plan
Clearly defined, achievable goals
Willingness to study hard & commit your time fully to your endeavour
A burning desire to succeed NOT ” I quite fancy getting rich at forex”……..
Guts
Determination
Persistence
One of my favourite “Americanisms” that I repeatedly quote to my kids is “When the going gets tough. The tough get going”. Does this mean that if you are losing that you plow on regardless? Of course not. Stop. Go back to the drawing board. Analyse where you are going wrong & look for ways to change & improve things.
Last week forex trading was rubbish for me! I went into ultra cautious mode as:
I do not like to lose money
Many of you are relatively new to forex trading & need to learn when to walk away
I feel some responsibility to help try & protect your money & save you from yourselves sometimes
I was slated by one member last week for being too conservative & for trading with “scared money”. If you are a more experienced trader & more importantly you are winning then obviously you can choose to ignore my advice. We are all adults here BUT I am trying to mentor a wide mix of people some of whom only started to learn forex in the last 7 days & others who have been trying 7 years & are still struggling. If you are a winner already then its obviously your call.
Personally I have learned that it is simply easier & less stressful to walk away. I have no interest in trading when I can not reasonably predict what is going to happen next. It took me a long time to get where I am financially & I have no intention of giving it back. Knowing “when to walk” of course is the key part!
End of the lecture
The Forex Week Ahead
There will be decent trades around. I intend to be a little more aggressive in my trading, but I will concentrate on a few pairs. We are technical traders who do take news into account. Some people trade purely on fundamentals & news, however the Japanese Banks intervention means that neither of these will be reliable in the week ahead.
There was a horrible spike on the $/Yen just before London open on Friday that probably had nothing to do with the fundamentals and everything to do with the Bank of Japan intervening.
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said today the central bank is closely watching the effect on the economy of the yen’s appreciation, and is prepared to take “appropriate action” if needed. “We are ready to implement appropriate action in a timely manner if judged necessary,” Shirakawa said today at a forum hosted by the Japan Society of Monetary Economics in Kobe, western Japan. Full Story
There is the further problem that the Governor of the BoJ is delivering a speech at 06.30am Monday, London time. Leave it alone!!
There are profits to be made with the Yen BUT it is extremely risky as we have no idea when or at what price the BoJ will intervene again. This is nearer to gambling than trading so my easiest solution is leave the yens alone, especially if you are relatively new. There will be easier, more predictable trades elsewhere.
The Euro made new highs last week and is clearly in a daily uptrend BUT on the weekly its at a 50% fib in a down trend! We have had two solid weeks of upwards movement, therefore at least a pullback is to be expected.
I have explained in recent weeks that the current state of the markets is all to do with $US weakness. This is not that the Euro is getting stronger. Far from it. the Eurozone still has huge problems that will not easily go away and therefore there is always the chance that a reversal can occur at any time.
I read a very interesting article in the Wall Street Journal this morning that explains in more detail what is going on: Euro zones woes, recent history
* For a free copy of Napoleon Hills “Think & Grow Rich” – one of THE most influential books I have ever read, CLICK HERE
It is important to remember we are NOT a tipping service. Our aim is to teach you how to do this for yourselves.
M1
Continues to keep me out of losing trades & a few decent winners last week, especially the Euro/Gbp I showed in one of the daily videos. Over night range 16 Pips. It HAD to go somewhere!
Lmt
A few winning trades last week on the daily. I didn’t take due to the uncertainty. If you decide to use in the next few days, make sure you follow the advanced rules: LMT Advanced Rules
Gbp/$
Down trend on weekly, up trend on daily. Still all over the place!I am only looking to long tomorrow. For this I need a pullback. The ideal place would be 1.3320 but it may only get to 1.3400 so look for clues there. 1.3500 will be of interest for counter trend traders to short, but not for me.
Euro/$
Mixed Trends on this pair too. Mr Trichet is making TWO speeches tomorrow. The first is at 08.00am London time at the London open. The more important speech is before the European parliament at 14.00 London time.Either could move the markets, the latter probably the most. There has been lots of talk at the weekend that 3 German Regional Banks are still in danger of failing. If there is negative bank news then the Euro could tumble & sharply. I said in my introduction that the current price has more to do with $US weakness than Euro strength, so be careful.
I certainly wont be looking to hold trades for very long. I will look to be in and out in as short a period of time possible.
My bias tomorrow (excluding news announcements) is to long. We are in a clear daily uptrend BUT price does not go in a straight line so I need a pullback. My preferred area is 1.3320 but it may only get to 1.3400. Look for clues at both these areas.
Those looking to short the logical area is 1.3500 which is a HUGE psychological level, weekly 50% fib & 200ema, so LOTS of reasons, I will wait until after the London open T the first speech to decide on my plan for the day.
Chf/$
Not Trading as it is at an extreme low & The Swiss National Bank may intervene & send it rocketing back up.
$/Yen
Not trading this pair.
Aud/$
Only looking to long. I would prefer a pullback. 0.9470 held last week so there will be a good point to enter. Alternatively wait for a break out and pullback of the daily trend line as shown in the video.Watch gold for clues. If gold breaks above 1300 then the Aud is likely to continue upwards without a pullback.
Euro/Aud
In a daily down trend. Price is approaching 61.8% fib and trend line at 1.4140. This is starting to look bullish, but that is the palce to look for clues
Euro/Yen
Not trading Yen pairs
Aud/jpy
Not trading Yen Pairs
Euro/Gbp
I Favour a short. 0.8600 is weekly 50% fib with 55ema just below around 0.8560. Price spiked but failed to close above this ema. Look at the weekly Bollinger bands for clues at the market open. If they swing open upwards I will be less likely to take the short. Again beware of Trichets speeches.
Best of Luck, Marc
To get analysis like this 5 days a week, and for an arsenal of trading systems and training, why not join Forex Mentor Pro? To join, just click the image below:
Extremely volatile markets last week, hopefully most of you, especially the new traders amongst you, took my advice & walked away. Things appeared to have calmed down and become a little more predictable on Friday, but as ever we can never be sure if some kind of normality has returned or not.
Its the same situation when we are waiting to see if trends have reversed or its simply a pull-back. As ever patience is the name of the game (Thanks to Adrian for todays cartoon).
I am a technical trader. I use charts and emas etc to try to predict where the markets will go next based on previous market patterns.
Those of you who have been with me for over a year know that i am often very spookily accurate & on balance I find this the most successful way to trade forex.
I do pay attention to scheduled news announcements and take them into account before deciding whether to take or delay the taking of a trade, but usually that is the extent of my news monitoring. At the moment I am shifting my emphasis a little.
As I have explained in recent weeks, the current strength of many currencies eg the Euro, Gbp etc has little to do with their economic situation improving & more to do with $USA weakness.
We have had a slew of poor $US news and accordingly it has slumped BUT the Euro zone is in no better health than it was a fortnight ago & I mentioned last week that Irelands Banks were under more pressure.
On Friday more news came out concerning their plight and the danger is anything major news wise could see the Euro/$ suddenly reverse and pile back down again ( I suspect this will happen, just not sure when).
So how do we play things in the coming week?
Cautiously of course I explain in today’s video that there were a lot of daily reversal candles on Friday & there is a lot of macd divergence on the 4 hour charts on lots of pairs that suggest that we should some reversals in the early part of the week at least.
These potential moves may only be short term so my best advice is take small 1st profits and move stops to entry as soon as possible. Also aim for conservative over all targets. Price may move 100 or more pips and then simply bounce back again. This being forex I could of course be completely wrong and the $Usa may simply continue to tumble!
My Plan for the Week
I will avoid all Yen pairs. When a central bank intervenes your technical analysis should go in the bin. They can & will do anything to suit their plan. We do not know exactly what & when they are planning, so the simple solution is to walk away. This is further complicated by the fact that Monday & Thursday are Japanese Bank Holidays & they too usually impact on trading patterns.
I will avoid anything Chf related for similar reasons. The Chf is at parity with the $US & the Swiss National Bank does not want that.
I will concentrate on trading from 4 hour charts as explained in detail in the video. There are too many conflicting signals on the daily & weekly charts.
I will not be greedy and will be happy to achieve my 100 pip weekly target.
I will set conservative targets & be extra attentive to news.
I will NEVER be in more than one trade for or against the $US at any one time. (This covers me if there is a sudden reversal in either direction). The only exception to this rule is if I have moved my stop to entry or more on an open trade, then I will be allowed to open a second trade.
I will not take any new trades after 15.00 hours (London time) on Tuesday as there is FOMC news a few hours later. Often price goes sideways prior to the announcement and can be explosive when it does. A few months ago Mr Bernanke sneaked in some unexpected news and price spiked horrendously. In view of recent $US weakness, he may be tempted to do the same again.
I will continue to ignore the LMT until things settle down.
M1
Biggest benefit at the moment is that it should continue to keep you out of potential losing trades as explained on numerous occasions recently
Lmt
Maybe some trades later in the week, Leaving for now.
Gbp/$
Down trend on weekly, up trend on daily. All over the place!
Looks bearish at least temporarily on the 4 hour & the daily candle on Friday was a reversal one. Rejected at 1.5720 which I have had on my charts for months, if it gets back there I will look for short clues.. 5/8 cross and stochastics suggest short as well on 4 hour BUT 1.5550 will be huge again if it falls back so look there for clues for a bounce back up. If it breaks that area then wait for a candle to close and a pullback for a short. The problem with the latter idea is we will then be back in amongst all the emas and the previous range.
Euro/$
In a clear uptrend on the 4 hour chart BUT emas, stochs, macd divergence all suggest down move! Price rejected on Friday at my 200ema on the daily which is also the 4 hour upper trend line going back a month.
Counter trend traders will consider shorting @ 1.3150 if it gets back there tomorrow, personally I favour a long around 1.2950 which is previous support & resistance and a 4 hour trend line and we have emas and bollingers not far below for additional support. 1.3000 is another obvious area to consider longs.
If price does break up then I will be looking later in the week to short @ 1.3300/30(yes it will be counter trend so only 50% of my normal stake) but I fancy that as there are bollinger bands, multiple emas/double top etc on the weekly chart
Chf/$
Not trading as per my rules above & the correlation with the Euro/$ is not great at the moment either.
$/Yen
Not trading this pair.
Aud/$
Spiked through but failed at 0.9400 as per last weeks advice. Fridays daily candle is a pin bar reversal one. Looks bearish on a 4 hour chart, with emas, macd, stochastics all supporting that theory. Counter trenders will consider shorting at 0.9400 again, personally I only want to long. 0.9220 was previous major support & resistance so good palce to consider.
The BESTplace to look for a long on this pair later in the week would be 0.9035 area which is 61.8% of recent daily moves. Previous huge support & resistance (was also 78.6% daily fib a few weeks ago) Daily trend line, daily 55ema, monthly 5ema, eg multiple reasons/clues
Euro/Cad
In a daily down trend. Price is approaching an upper trend line at 1.3550 which is also previous support & resistance. Previous major support & resistance is at 1.3340 area so look for clues at both areas for entries.
Euro/Yen
Not trading Yen pairs
Aud/jpy
Not trading Yen Pairs
Euro/Gbp
Another pair with 4 hour macd divergence. Only looking to short tomorrow. 0.8380 held all last week and now has a daily trend line as well as previous resistance 61.8% daily fib etc to support the theory. If it gets down to 0.8210 later in the week then consider counter trend longs
Best of Luck, Marc
Like this analysis? Why not join Forex Mentor Pro and get detailed Forex training and analysis 5 days a week? Just click the image below to find out more.
I’ll start this week’s Forex analysis with this: Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1. Warren Buffett. I do love a good quotation & Mr Buffett is a master of them
In my Forex analysis I cautioned last week that the first week “back at school” would see the experienced old forex hands sitting on the fence whilst the newbies dived in and got their fingers burned. Which were you? In recent years it has been mid September before things started to really get going, so the priority at the moment is the old “patience & discipline.”
I show again in the start of this week’s Forex analysis video how you can use the 15 minute, M1 charts to help keep you out of losing trades. I still get people emailing me that they have just taken a trade that contradicts this rule & then they are wondering why it fails. I can advise until the cows come home guys, but YOU need to absorb this information & more importantly, act upon it.
Most people, at whatever level, manage some winning trades in a week, even if its only luck. If you could only reduce the losers you would have a far healthier account balance. So, if you are struggling look upon this as step 1. “I will reduce my losing trades.” Step 2 is learn, learn, learn. In my experience anything worth doing takes time & lots of effort, but when you do start to succeed it makes the success so much sweeter. This free weekly Forex analysis can be the backbone of your trading success – we have plenty of people using it who are making a decent LIVING from Forex trading!
The Forex Holy Grail does not exist but if you can learn to avoid predictable losing trades, then you are half way to succeeding.
So we know that the M1 can be used to avoid losing trades. The other thing is to listen & act upon what I advise you in this Forex analysis! After all people are paying me to tell them what to do! The LMT is not working at the moment because the markets are going sideways and it needs a trend. Please do not email me this week & tell me about the losing LMT trade you just made!!
Forex Analysis: Watching & Waiting for that Explosive Move
Periods of quiet are always followed by a storm in forex. I am expecting price to break out of tight ranges in the coming days. One of the members, Mike, sent me a research paper this week from a well known, experienced financial commentator who is predicting that the US stock Market is top heavy and is due a fall, which could be big & in the next 10 days. Will it happen? I have no idea BUT if it does, falls in the stock market usually strengthen the $USA so that may be the catalyst we are waiting for.
In the recent summer competition both Viktor & Miles showed in their Forex analysis how they use this correlation between Euro & Usa indexes to keep them out of losing trades, their articles can be found here, Viktor: REDUCE YOUR LOSING TRADES. USD AND EURO INDEXES. & Miles’: Is The $US Correlated to World Bourses & If So How?
Forex Analysis: How do we play the big moves when they arrive?
I will wait for the moves to take place on a daily or 4 hour chart. Candles to break & CLOSE through major previous support & resistance and then look for a pull back as explained in detail in the M2 section. I will NOT dive in to the moves as they are happening. Every time I used to do that in my early days you could guarantee price would reverse the second I pulled the trigger! Sit & watch & wait. Will you miss some of he moves? Of course, but the ones you do catch are likely to give 100′s of pips.
Triangle Break Outs
There are lots of triangle break outs brewing on daily charts which ties in with my theory that we should get some big break outs & soon. We will study these more closely as the week develops – I’ll be looking out for these in my daily Forex analysis on Forex Mentor Pro. If the moves start tomorrow, you need to put the lines on yourself. If you are new, ignore this for now, but there are videos in the strategies session explaining the theory about triangle break outs & they do work a surprising % of the time:Triangle Break outs
News
There was big news out from China this week that could fire the Aud even higher, so be careful with anything Aud related. Monday is a fairly light, scheduled news day, but as ever check your calendars before entering trades.
We have had an influx of new members in recent weeks. Welcome to the site. We have lots of experienced traders who are willing & able to share ideas & offer help & advice in the forum which you can find here Forex Forum. The following is a summary of my Forex analysis and are the areas that I will be looking to trade myself in the next few days.
Weekly Forex Analysis Breakdown:
M1
A few decent winning trades today & just as important should have kept you out of lots of losers as per the first of tonight’s Forex analysis videos.
Lmt
I said yesterday that “it needs trends to do well” we still do not have any so leave for now. There were quite a few losing daily trades today & there could be more until we get the break outs we need.
Gbp/$
Bollingers opened last night at candle close but price pulled back to the trend line. I took the short despite that doubt, it lost. Moveon.com.
Too messy again for me. Watching & waiting. Price has now moved back into a sideways range, upper area being 1.5540 and lower 1.5300 so these are the important zones for me. Either look for bounces off or break out/pullbacks/M2 trades. Personally only looking to short unless breaks and closes above 1.5550
On the weekly this is in a clear down trend. Technical Forex analysis shows we have had a 5/8 cross & stochastics are rolling over. We have had lower lows & lower highs, all of which suggests price should fall. I will be interested to short around 1.5550 which is previous support & resistance and has lots of emas. Further options are an M2 break & close below 1.5380.
Euro/$
Also now very messy/back in a range. M2 worked well today but now bouncing between 1.2800 and 1.2680. Personally prefer a short and 1.2800 is the major short term area for me. Second short option is a break and close below 1.2680. Be aware that 1.2600 was a recent low so that would be the target.
Final option if it breaks out upwards then 1.3000 was huge before and should be again
Chf/$
Same Forex analysis as last week: We are in a clear down trend but very near recent lows. I mainly use this pair for correlation with the Euro/$, but will be interested to short at 1.0220 & definitely 1.0340 if price gets back up there later in the week.
$/Yen
Not for me. Counter trend traders had the opportunity to make 40 odd pips last few days from bounces off bottom trend lines as I have pointed out in my analysis. Still very important area, low of 83.60 but not for me
Aud/$
Same as last few days. Mainly looking to long. more news 02.30 London Time. Wait until that is out & the dust has settled before taking. I will wait for the London open. A pullback to 0.9030 will be a good place to look for clues to long or if price breaks and closes above 0.9220 on at least the 1 hour chart I will also be interested.
Final thing is if counter trend trader (not me) price does get up to 0.9220 which will be a double top or 0.9400 later in the week then counter trend traders will consider shorts
Euro/Cad
I showed in last nights video how to play this and it worked to perfection, currently + 140 pips. However for me the move has now gone. Those still trying to enter need to look ofr a pullback. Fib todays candle at the close. At the moment 50% is at 1.3250 which also happened to be yesterdays low so that would be a good palce to consider a short.
Euro/Yen
Only looking for shorts. 107.30 is previous support & resistance so pullback to there for a short will be very tempting, almost got there today. Watch the daily Bollinger if stays open gives more confidence for the short.
Aud/jpy
Wait until after the news: Same advice as yesterday: 77.75 has been previous major support & resistance and daily Bollinger will be around there tomorrow. If price spikes at the news to 79.00 then could be the best trade opportunity tomorrow.
Loads emas, psych level, support & resistance etc ie multiple reasons. 76.00 was previously strong support but ema & stochastics look like they might force price through this time-
If later in the week gets down to bottom trend line also a good area to look for trade clues.
Euro/Gbp
Too near recent low. I am only interested to short. A pullback to 0.8290 seems unlikely now, but that is where I will look tomorrow. Counter trend traders see tonights video
Best of Luck, Marc
If you really want forex training from a professional trader then heres where you need to click the banner below – you can get training, Forex systems that WORK and my daily Forex analysis!
Hi, I am back from my cruise on the yacht, welcome to members new & old. Those of you who have been waiting for the master strategist to return with his spookily accurate analysis then its here: This could be the worst, most difficult, scary forex trading week of your life! Groan. Those of you of a nervous disposition should leave now!
As I have explained before it is just as important to know when not to trade, especially if you are relatively new to forex trading. The more experienced amongst you need to tread carefully. Remember my mantra. IF IN DOUBT. STAY OUT
Last week I was showing you how emas were going horizontal on lots of pairs & how these pairs were becoming trapped in tight ranges. This is all due to summer illiquidity (most of the big boys are on holiday). Now for the first 4 or 5 weeks of the summer holidays I showed you a simple method to trade bounces off areas of support & resistance. Lots of you grasped the concept very quickly and many of you emailed me privately to say you had your best weeks ever. Well done.
To achieve that in summer markets was incredible BUT this is the last week of the holidays, the most of the major world economies are all screwed, tomorrow is a bank holiday in the UK, there are major news releases from Tuesday onwards, its FOMC news oh and the “slight” matter of NFP friday etc etc, need I say more!
Because of the lack of liquidity & the humongous amount of news this week there is the distinct possibility that fundamentals (ie news releases) & not technical analysis will be the major factor influencing trades. We are technical traders and 95% of the year I find that to be the most successful method to trade forex. If you do decide to trade this week then have both eyes on the calendar before placing any orders.
As I mentioned Monday is a Bank Holiday in the UK so the London markets will be closed. London is a major centre for forex trading & there is hardly any important scheduled news. The most probable outcome is that markets will simply go side ways on lots of pairs, however as this is forex then as we know anything can happen, but I will go for caution first & will certainly not touch anything Gbp related.
One other thing to bear in mind is that when you have been away from the markets for a few weeks, it can take a while to get back in “the groove” & get back in tune with the movements. I have explained many times that you are best advised to concentrate on only a few pairs & you will develop a “feeling” for them. When the rhythm has been broken do not rush back in.
The Week Ahead
Now that is out of the way then lets take a look at potential trades for the coming week:
M1
In summer ranging markets this is not generally the best method for taking trades BUT it is great at keeping you out of losers: How to avoid losing trades http://www.forexmentorpro.com/members/edu-m1m2.php
Lmt
Still waiting for summer doldrums to finish. The LMT needs a trend. No trend = No signals or unreliable ones. Leave it until after NFP Friday is likely to be the best advice.
Gbp/$
Stuck in a tight range at the moment, I will wait for a break in either direction before getting involved.
I said in last Sundays update that I wouldn’t look to short due to the emas below the then price. Price went down & promptly bounced off them. The daily emas are now horizontal & close together & price is bouncing between the weekly 55ema and these daily ones. I need price to break and close outside of this tight range before I get involved.
There is a potential triangle break out on the 4 hour chart as I show in the video. I need to either break below the daily 55ema which is around 1.5400 or above the weekly 55 @ 1.5560. Price to close and then pullback, standard M2 method.
Euro/$
This one does interest me. There are conflicting clues on daily charts (suggests up & weekly which suggest down) but 1.2800 has been a strong area of previous support & resistance & there are 4 hour as well as daily emas in the area so I will look for clues to short here as explained in the video. I also show how we have a potential “flag pattern” on the 4 hour so loads going on here. 1.2800 is the upper area & 1.2700 the lower. Price could simply continue to bounce between these areas so take some profit early & then move stops to entry as soon as possible,
If price breaks and closes above or below these areas then look for standard M2 break out/pullback method.
Chf/$
We are in a clear down trend but very near recent lows. I mainly use this pair for correlation with the Euro/$, but will be interested to short at 1.0340 & definitely 1.0380 if price gets back up there.
$/Yen
Not for me. I used to like this pair but it has been very messy recently. We are in a clear long term down trend so I will only consider a short if price gets back up to 0.8630 where we have 50% fib of recent move. Its major previous support & resistance as well so a number of reasons.
It does look bullish on the daily at least temporarily so counter trend traders will consider a long if price pulls back to 85.00 which is a major whole number as well as being strong previous support & resistance.
Aud/$
Weekly bullish engulfing candle suggest upwards movement & price is above emas on all the longer time frames but Price is back within the range of 0.8850 & 0.9027 which has been very important here in recent months.
So either look for bounces off again or wait for these areas to break & close above or below for M2 trades. Best opportunity for me would be if price gets back down to 0.8850 area for a possible long.
There is a lot of important AUD NEWS THIS WEEK SO CHECK CALENDARS CAREFULLY AS THIS COULD CAUSE VOLATILITY.
Euro/Aud
Weekly bearish engulfing candle & Potential M2 developing now on daily chart. Price broke and closed below the trend line and major psychological level of 1.4200. In normal markets I would not hesitate to short if price pulls back to 1.4200 but be careful here. There was a big gap at the market open last week. Wait & see what happens before diving in.
Euro/Yen
Not Sure, Leaving. Still watching monthly chart for possible 6500 pip triangle break out
Aud/jpy
Weekly pin bar reversal candle and Also moved back into previous range on Friday. 77.75 was previous upper area where price was bouncing off & the trend line which is now at 74.00 held again last week, so bounces off or break outs & pullbacks are the order of the week. Counter trend traders may consider a long at 76.00
Euro/Gbp
Another bullish weekly engulfing candle but this is still in a clear down trend. Numerous options as explained in the video, personally I am only looking to short (with the trend) 0.8320 was strong previous support & resistance so I will look for clues there after Monday.
The last few weeks we have had lots of profitable forex trades just from my Sunday analysis. Last Sunday I showed you how we were looking for trend line breaks on lots of forex pairs & many worked brilliantly.
In mid July I explained that in these thinner summer markets you often find price respects technical areas often to the pip. In recent weeks we have had price bouncing between areas of support & resistance. How important fibs are. Macd divergence. M2 trend line break outs & pullbacks of which we had many last week.
If you are still struggling & still “don’t get it” then look back at last Sundays video before you watch todays. There I showed you how we were looking for trend/triangle break outs & pullbacks.
I showed you where the lines were & what to do if price fell into our “trap”. I show in the first part of todays video how one trade on one pair (Euro/Gbp) would have made you more than a weeks target.
I suspect that the fundamental problem is that some of you still do not plan in advance what you are going to do.
If you do not plan & simply react after a movement, you will invariably lose. If you are scared to “pull the trigger” then reduce your stake. Plan your entry, stop & exit strategy before price comes to your area.
Pierre showed a perfect demonstration of this in the forum last week. He had waited for over a week for the Euro/$ to come to his entry. He planned the stop. He planned where he was going to take his 1st profit & second.
Some people seem to get confused about targets & yet the principle is exactly the same as looking for entries. We are looking for logical areas where price is going to stop or at least react; eg recent highs & lows, support & resistance, emas, whole numbers etc ( I show more about choosing targets in the video).
Yesterday I received the following email from one of our members, Frieda who joined forexmentorpro pre Christmas. Frieda has had her struggles with forex the same as everyone else & she has taken her time in getting to her current level.
She has persevered. She has learned the importance of Patience & discipline. She has studied all the videos in the forex strategies page, over & over again. She has reduced the number of pairs that she trades.
She has joined our forum, in other words she has done all that we advise but more importantly she has made a huge effort. Last week Frieda made……drum roll…..1600+ pips!
Marc, a little note to thank you, again, and assure you that your teaching method is working!!! I had such an awesome week that I cannot believe it myself. I keep going to my platform to check and double check, but it was not a dream. … So far in august, in just the last week, I made 1600 and a few pips.
Wednesday, I quickly closed all my trades when I realized I made 1000 pips in one day, trying to close them before I went even a pip below 1000. And, I just opened a Meta4 account with forex.com-uk, that I also quickly got from US $500 to $832 in the last week. Hard to believe.
After that, on Friday, I opened a trade to promptly close it at 6 pips, because I knew I should not have been trading. I did that twice, then successfully managed to shut off the computer.
I promise myself I will only make trades that are planned and can be justified, with traps set ahead of time. Last minute decisions will have to go on the demo. Now I am just so scared to lose it all again, I will have to force myself to pull the trigger, next time a good one comes around.
But I know I can do it, at least after analysing your analysis. The analysis, the patience, the money management part, stop losses, and very importantly, confidence, as well as the famous moveondotcom, when a trade goes wrong, ..it’s all coming together. poco a poco. (well, this week was not poco )
Next week, though, I shall be extremely satisfied with 100 pips for the week?
gracias por todo. Frieda
Absolutely fantastic achievement Frieda. I know from private emails how much effort she has put in & that it has not all been plain sailing. I take my hat off to you & hopefully those who are struggling will take comfort.
One of the recent competition entries had the following quotation that I think sums it up perfectly: “Treat forex like a hobby & it will pay you like a hobby. Treat it like a profession & it will pay you like a professional”
If you are struggling at the moment then take heart from Frieda’s story ( I get dozens of similar emails every month). There is enough information, help & advice here & in the forum for you to live the dream, if you put in the time & effort.
The Week Ahead
There are a lot of weekly engulfing candles on many pairs (explained in the forex strategies section & todays video). These signify that price is reversing BUT a lot of last weeks candles were huge, so I will be looking for pullbacks as per my normal M2 method.
Either pullbacks to fib areas or recent support & resistance.
Please remember, we are NOT a tipping service. What we are trying to do here is teach you how to do this for yourselves. Frieda is a classic example, she made far more pips than I did last week, but that gives me as much pleasure than if I had won that many myself.
M1
Hit & miss at the moment. In summer ranging markets this is not generally the best method, but wait & see what happens around London open & follow my previous videos where I showed you how to use this method to avoid losing trades: How to avoid losing trades
Lmt
Recent big moves could mean we get some signals later in the week. As ever make sure you follow the “Advanced Rules” and be very careful with big candles.
Gbp/$
Currently sat on weekly 55ema & daily trend line that goes back to mid May. This one is not the easiest. There are conflicting signals. We have the above acting as support and yet Fridays candle was a hanging man reversal one.Best advice is await for market open on smaller time frames for a possible bounce back up. Personally I would prefer a short, for that I either need a break out followed by a pullback of that daily trend line/weekly 55ema or if price was to bounce back up to 1.5720 then I will look for clues to short.
If price gets above here later in the week then look at 1.5800/1.5900 & definitely 1.6000. There are simpler opportunities elsewhere.
Be particularly careful with this pair on Wednesday. There are rumours that the MPC minutes release could contain some fireworks! Explained in the video,
Euro/$
Weekly bearish engulfing candle suggests a reversal in price(back down) however last weeks candle was huge, so I need a pullback or a break & close below 1.2700 which is also the daily trend line. Some may consider a Plan B trade but the candle size puts me off & the trend line is too near.If we get a pullback then the first area to consider is the weekly 55ema round 1.2820 but that only gives a 100 pips back down to the trend line. I would prefer a pullback to 1.3000 which is around the weekly 50% fib area as well as being a huge psychological level.
Be mindful that price has stopped at whole numbers on the way up & down recently.
Chf/$
It gets better further down the page, honest I am not sure with this pair. Last weeks was also an engulfing candle that suggest reversal from a recent low but we are in a long term down trend. I mainly use this pair for correlation with the Euro/$, but will be interested to short at 1.0700
$/Yen
Not for me. Price bounced off the 121.4 fib/recent low and now looks bullish but that is counter trend so not my cup of tea. You also need to be aware that there is talk of the Bank of Japan intervening here.
A strong Yen kills Japans exports so they may well start to manipulate the price in coming weeks which will make this a bumpy ride.
I Might be interested in a short if price gets to 87.00.
Aud/$
Weekly engulfing candle. Gave a great entry on Friday but I missed it. 0.9027 was major previous resistance & daily 78.6 retracement so price could well bounce between there and 0.8850 which was another similar area. So bounces off or break outs followed by pullbacks is the order of the day. I wouldn’t short from current price as its too near 0.8850.If price gets back to 0.9027 then I will place my stop 10 pips above the weekly 50% fib which is at at 0.9062 & was also previous support & resistance.
There is a lot of important AUD NEWS THIS WEEK SO CHECK CALENDARS CAREFULLY AS THIS COULD CAUSE VOLATILITY.
Cad
Bounced off upper trend line & daily 200ema at 1.0475 so break & close above to long but not for me. 1.0400 & 1.0300 have been the most important areas of late. Break & close below 1.0300 would interest me later in the week, but not my favourite pair.
Euro/Aud
We had a perfect example of a daily M2 trade last week. Another weekly engulfing candle so either 50% fib pullback to 1.4350 which is my preferred trade or a break and close below 1.4200 which is a weekly trend line
Euro/Yen
Perfect example of M2 on a 4 hour last week as shown in the video. Weekly 50% fib pullback is at 111.60. Counter trend traders will consider longing at 109.20 but not for me
Aud/jpy
Last 2 Sundays analysis has yielded 100’s of pips on this pair.Normally not my favourite, but its growing on me J Also great example of M2 last week. Now looking for potential short at 77.75 with stop above 78.00 which is also daily 55ema. May bounce off 76.00 again for counter trenders. If breaks & closes below here I will also be looking to short
Euro/Gbp
Simple break out & pullback of the trend line that we planned last week as per Sundays analysis. One trade on this pair would have given you over a weeks pips. Another text book M2 trade on the 4 hour charts.If you are not in already then look for clues to short at 0.8210 which was major previous support which broke on Friday. Weekly 200ema will be my target which is currently around 0.8135.
Beware Wednesday big GBp news. Could work in your favour if you are already in BUT don’t take trades just before that release.
If it pulls back after news/later in the week to 0.8300/8320 then again I will short
Best of Luck, Marc
The above is an example of the detailed analysis that members of my forex mentor service receive every trading day, as well as 50 mini videos that teach you how to trade forex profitably. Suitable for beginners to intermediate level, to find out more, click on the following link:
I hope you have had good week trading Forex. This week was a profitable one for many members who watched my analysis and stuck to the rules. At this time of year, many Forex traders are getting burned, yet Forex Mentor Pro members are still making loads of pips. As always in Forex, if you maintain your discipline, you will come out on top.
I have published another great Forex competition entry in the forum, from Keith W. Keith has entered the following article where he explains that even though he has never been particularly sporty, how he set out to run his first marathon. The importance for us is that Keith points out the many similarities that exist when you plan to undertake such a gruelling event & when you set out on your Forex journey & what you need to do every trading day. The Forex Marathon – how to Plan for Success
Last week
In the recent Sunday updates I have shown you how to trade ranging markets. The areas to look for to take trades. If you were trading on the 4 hour & daily charts in recent weeks there have been a lot of great trades from this method & I know many of you have done very well. However many people struggle at this time of year & I suspect that the main reason is that they are not flexible enough with their strategies AND too many people are still sat there all day looking for trades, often on smaller time frames. STOP IT!
At the start of todays video I remind you of the areas we were looking for last week. Why & how successful this method was on many pairs. These were classic examples of Plan the Trade. Trade the Plan, then walk away. During the week I showed you how I had just taken the Chf short which went on to gain well over a 100 pips. This was a simple bounce off a line that I had first pointed out a fortnight before & then re-stated last Sunday.
Set the trap. Wait for price to come to you. Take the trade. If you are still struggling with this then I urge you to go back to the videos in the Forex strategies/Advanced LMT section which you will find at the top of the home page (you do NOT have to be an LMT owner/user to benefit from this section).
The videos in here are the basic building blocks you need to succeed at Forex & were the key to finding literally dozens of profitable trades in recent weeks. Support & resistance (it is crucial that you fully understand this). Trend lines, fibs & most important of all PLAN THE TRADE: TRADE THE PLAN
The Forex Week Ahead
Having said all of the above, tomorrow could be tricky. NFP news was mixed, but overall much worse than expected & therefore it is reasonable to assume (in Forex assume NOTHING that there will be further $US weakness, BUT these are thin, illiquid markets & price is at extremes (recent highs & lows) on many pairs so I will be ultra cautious tomorrow. There may well be gaps at the market open & these may not fill. Asian traders have had all weekend to analyse the US data & its their first chance to “vote” on it. Apart from red flag Aud news 02.30 London time, there is no scheduled major news tomorrow so it could be less predictable than usual.
All my thoughts/ramblings are explained in detail in the video. Here follows my brief written notes;
M1
Hit & miss at the moment. I expect the Asian session to be bumpy so there may well be no opportunities in the morning. Certainly not a method to get up early/stay late for tomorrow. If you are around then watch London open.
Lmt
Better for keeping you out of trades than winning at the moment. It needs a trend. Its summer markets & the trends are not clear. I can see nothing on Alpari for tomorrow. It is important you follow the “Advanced Rules” now more than ever.
Gbp/$
Too messy for me at the moment. Better opportunities elsewhere.If I was to go long I need a clear break & close above 1.6000 which is huge psychological area that failed to break by 2 pips on Friday. Also interested to long if pulls back to 1.5800.
If you are looking to short then the area of interest is 1.600 because of the psych level, BUT we are now in a clear uptrend so this will be half stake/counter trend trade..
Euro/$
Another messy situation. To long I need a clear break & close above 1.3300 but the daily trend line is not far above & 1.3400 was a major previous support & resistance area so its not that tempting.Crucial area is now @ 1.3300 area. this is the whole number, daily 200ema & 78.6 fib, & upper daily trend line is not far above around 1.3350: in other words MULTIPLE reasons why price will react.
The brave (reckless J amongst you may consider a short here BUT only half stake as its very counter trend
Chf/$
Finished the week near where it started. Currently sat on a quadruple bottom/strong support line. I have now put another support line at last weeks double bottom low at 1.0340 area. To short I need price to close below here & then pullback.Alternative is could bounce back up here again so counter trend traders will consider a long. 1.0550 has been strong upper resistance in recent weeks, so again considering a short if it gets up there.
$/Yen
Did the break out we looked for last week. Too extreme a low for me now. Possibly consider a short if price pulls back to 86.30 but will wait for London open. To get back to that area it would need to bounce back up but not for me.
Aud/$
Big news release in the Asian session, 02.30am London time. Broke 78.6% fib eventually last week so now it’s a reversal, but it never pulled back. I show in the video how its bouncing off a daily trend line, but need a pullback to get me interested. Will struggle around 93.75/94.00 which was previous highs so counter trend short later in the week may be of interest.
Cad
Got the break out followed by the pullback last week. Price pulled back to 1.0300 after NFP. Any other time of the week & that would have been a great place to short. Watch 1.0300 closely as this was previous support therefore now resistance. If it did break above here then 1.0400 is the next important place to consider shorting
Euro/Aud
Possible 700 pip triangle break out still brewing. I have moved the lines again, all shown in the video. Prefer a short but if it breaks upwards I want it to close above 114.00 & preferably above 114.20 8last weeks high) and then pullback.
Euro/Yen
Possible 5000+ pip triangle break out! Still watching, & waiting & waiting zzzzzzzzzz JI have moved the lines on the daily chart. Still looking for a triangle break out. Most interested in a break to the down side which is straight forward M2 break out pullback method BUT would also be interested if breaks up.
Aud/jpy
Wait until after Aud news. Worked brilliantly last week bouncing off 79.20 and 78.00. I have moved the lower line now to 77.75. So my strategy is either bounces off again or a break out followed by a pullback. I show in the video where I will place my stop if price gets back up to 79.20/30If price breaks out of the range I am only interested in a short as there is too much in the way for an upward move: emas, 50% daily fib etc
Euro/Gbp
Loads going on here! Member Frans points out a possible Head & shoulder pattern that would be good for 250 pips and also there is a possible triangle break out. I am only looking to short so break of lower trend line & pullback or if price gets back to 0.8380/8420 definitely looking for reasons to short.
Best of Luck, Marc
The Above is an example of the DAILY analysis members of my Forex mentor program receive as well as training videos, ebooks & email support. To find out more click on the following banner;
Hi, Strange few weeks, BUT there are still profitable forex trades out there. Whilst the general $USA weakness of last week means I am still not sure with the Euro & the Gbp, there are lots of potential technical moves developing, especially triangle break outs, head & shoulders pattern and a few flag pattern break outs that could give over 2000 pips!!
If you are not familiar with these kinds of techniques then take a look in the forex strategies section where there are short videos explaining each of them, you can find them in this section; http://www.forexmentorpro.com/members/edu-marc.php
The Week Ahead
There is a bank holiday in Japan today, consequently there is likely to be much less liquidity, so be wary of all things Yen related. Monday is a fairly light news day, but big news announcements as the week progresses. Lot of big Gbp news & The Euro culminates in the banking ”stress test” results on Friday, which could cause huge movements in either direction.
Be careful at market open as there is always the chance of “gaps” in price. The last few weeks there have been very few, BUT don’t be lulled into a false sense of security!
M1
Worked well on lots of pairs last week. Hasn’t been great in recent weeks on a Monday due to too much Asian range movement. Look around London open.
Lmt
Gave a few reasonable trades on 4 hour charts towards the back end of last week, Last weeks big moves could start to give us some trades again. Important that you follow the LMT Advanced Rules which can be found here: http://forexmentorpro.com/members/edu-lmt.php
Gbp/$
I am undecided on this pair. Possible 1000 pip flag pattern break later in the week. For tomorrow all I can do is tell you areas that are likely to be important. Its then your call if you choose to long or short.I realise this is confusing if you are new, but I am still interested to short around 1.5550 area as I explain in last weeks & todays video. This could just be a bounce though so move your stops to entry after 20/30 pips profit.
Areas for likely reaction/areas of interest
Those considering shorts: 1.5540 as above
Break & close below 1.5200 followed by pullback (standard M2)
Break & close below trend line around 1.5050
If on the other hand you feel that we are now in an uptrend
Then look for clues to long around, 1.5050, 1.5200 & 1.5250
Sorry I can not be more specific, but remember:
IF IN DOUBT. STAY OUT Wait until things become clearer. Its more important that you do not lose.
Euro/$
Undecided, but possible 1500 pip flag pattern later in the week!I said on Thursday (& explained why in the video) to look for shorts at 1.3000 – “he must be mad,” they cried – it worked for 70+ pips :)
Same as the Gbp, these are just areas where price is likely to struggle or react:
Those thinking of shorting: 1.3000, 1.3100 & 1.3300 as explained in the video.
The flag pattern lower line will be around 1.2500 later in the week, I will keep my eye on it for you.
Those looking to long 1.2800 whole number and previous support so consider there & below there 1.2600 was previous MAJOR support & resistance.
Chf/$
If the Euro bounces back down then the Chf should go up. Chf bounced off a new low on Friday. Could just have been a “dead cat bounce”. Only looking at shorts. 1.0600, 1.0700 & 1.0800 are the areas to look for clues.
$/Yen
Last weeks triangle break out worked to perfection, unfortunately as I was in “ultra cautious” mode, I didn’t take it. Japanese bank Holiday tomorrow so could be very slow. I will however be interested to short at 87.00 which is standard M2, break out/pullback. If that area breaks then 88.00 is next big line in the sandSimilar triangle break outs lining up on other Yen pairs.
Aud/$
Only interested in a short. Struggled all last week around 0.8840 and again on Friday, so interested to short if it gets back there. Bouncing up from weekly 55ema at 0.8660 Consider bounces up from here (counter trend so half your stake). Break & close below 0.8650 look for standard M2 break out/pullback
Cad
Up & Down like a yo –yo, 1.0600 will be strong resistance/possible bounce back down, but not my favourite pair, leaving alone tomorrow.
Euro/Cad
1.3900/1.4000 was very strong previous support & resistance, look for clues of a bounce back down there.
Euro/Yen
Only looking to short. Possible best move, except those darn Japanese Bank Holidays could kill it tomorrow J Triangle break out suggests possible 600 pip move if we can get a break down & close below 111.50, followed by a pullback.
Aud/jpy
Still looking to short. Pullback to 76.00 will be VERY interesting Also Head & Shoulders pattern developing, could be 1000 + pip move down, keep your eye on it for opportunities to short
Euro/Gbp
Only looking to short. But broke major previous resistance at 0.84020 so counter trend traders will consider longing if price pulls back there. Consider shorts if price gets to 0.8500 & definitely if it gets to 0.8650 later in the week. We have daily 200ema, weekly 55ema & daily 78.6 fib all in the same area
Best of Luck, Marc
Today is the last day before the doors close on the biggest & best forex site in the world! No its not our mentorpro site but we are catching up quick)!
If you haven’t seen what all the noise is about or just want the last chance to see all the great free information & videos then check out the Surefire Traders Challenge
To see the video “Full Screen” Click on the square icon, bottom right corner
As the last chance for the Greeks to avoid a fresh general election which may see them commit an act of joint economic suicide and create waves for the Eurozone and wider EU seems to have slipped by, better economic news is always welcome. […]
With the Greek drama playing out on centre-stage right now as last-ditch efforts are made to avert the need for a second general election which could give a mandate to the left to tear up the austerity package that secured Greece its second EU/IMF loan, it is timely to remember that the Greek economy is not in the top tier of EU economies. […]
The Greek president is still valiantly trying to persuade Greece’s politicians to come together in a coalition of national emergency to avoid the necessity for new elections next month. […]
everything arrives at once!).
Dean on the other hand has always traded longer term charts which often results in taking no trades sometimes for weeks on end.
)
