- Learn Forex Archives

Learn Forex – Possible 5000 Pip Move? & Analysis for the Week Ahead

Comments (1)

Learn Forex – Professional Forex Trader, Marc Walton offers his tips & advice for the forex week ahead. Many traders struggle during the ranging forex markets of the summer months but I have had decent results, so see if you can learn these forex methods. There are simple tricks & often the trades have great risk reward ratios. Here is Marc’s forex analysis for the week ahead, taken from the forexmentorpro site he runs with Dean Saunders.

One of the great things about being a forex analyst is that if you get something wrong, nobody dies.  I was convinced on Friday that we would have major volatility on the Euro because of the bank stress tests & what happened? Nothing. Nada. If I were a surgeon the patient would have died :) Instead I had the day off so it wasn’t a great loss.

So whats the plan today maestro? I hear you ask.

I will still be wary with all things Euro! The ECB were very sneaky releasing the news just as European & London markets closed & the weekend has been spent with the experts questioning the validity of the tests. It was obvious that the ECB wouldn’t devise something that was not going to have a favourable outcome, so still be wary of volatility both at market & London open.

A lot of pairs are now ranging, ie price is bouncing between an upper & lower area & this could be the pattern for the next few weeks, BUT these markets are not so difficult to trade & I usually find them to be very profitable.

As I show you in todays video, some of the pairs have given dozens of profitable trades, some with no losers. The best way I find to trade these kind of markets is from the 4 hour charts & possibly as low as 1 hour.

News

Tomorrow is a strange day as far as scheduled announcements are concerned, Forex factory shows only 3 for the entire day BUT 2 are possibly major market movers. There is big Aud & USA news so be extra careful around those times (check your calendars). As the week progresses we have more, important announcements, and they can often cause more volatility than normal, when things are generally going sideways.


M1 Now more than ever you need to use the emas on different time frames to keep you out of potential losing trades, see the section at the bottom of this page http://forexmentorpro.com/members/edu-m1m2.phpLook around London open.
Lmt

 Gave a few reasonable trades on 4 hour charts towards the back end of last week, I would leave the daily for now BUT the 4 hour is more sensitive and could start to give us some trades again.
Gbp/$ As I explain in the video we are currently “range bound” between 1.5250 & 1.5450 & the Weekly trend line & 55ema are just above at 1.5525 so these are the important areas for me to consider bounces off, in the coming week.If you wish to long this pair then a pullback to 1.5250 would the main area I will consider. If it breaks up & CLOSES above 1.5525 then a pullback afterwards would be our standard M2 method.Be careful with the Gbp, there has been a fair amount of positive UK news in the last few weeks and this could go on a run & leave the Euro behind.
Euro/$ Fridays news had very little effect, but the “experts” & commentators have spent the week-end opining that although most of the banks passed the test, the validity of the test itself is now being questioned.Was it strongly applied etc so we could still have some “aftershocks” either at market open or in the London session. There is no other Euro scheduled news tomorrow so this could rumble on all day.Another range bound pair. So until something breaks consider longs at 1.2800 & shorts at 1.3000. If either of these breaks, wait for a clear break & close, followed by a pullback.
Chf/$ If the Euro bounces back down then the Chf should go up. Spent all last week bouncing between 1.0550 & 1.0400 – take a look at the 4 hour charts, there were approximately 20 opportunities to enter last week & NO LOSERS!. Same areas again until something breaks.  
$/Yen Not Sure/neutral. We are in a clear daily down trend but price has bounced back off 87.00 & there is macd divergence on the daily which suggests an upwards movement at least short term.Last week I was looking for shorts at 88.00, this still looks interesting BUT for reasons I just mentioned I would be wary tomorrow. If it gets up near 90.00 later in the week, I would definitely be considering a short.Since doing the video I also noticed a possible daily triangle forming – I will report in more detail  tomorrow.
Aud/$ MAJOR news at 02.30 London time a few hours after the markets open. WAIT until the news is out & the dust has settled before trading this pair.Detailed analysis in the video. Price was range bound but broke above the resistance level of 0.8850 on Thursday & stayed above. Standard forex theory is that resistance now becomes support so consider longs if price gets there tomorrow.As long as the news is not hugely better than expected then the logical area for price to struggle at & possibly bounce back down is 0.900/9020 which is the psychological level/78.6% daily fib & previous support & resistance ie multiple reasons.
Cad Up & Down like a yo –yo not a pair I trade much, nor like, but price broke back down below 1.0400 and therefore consider pull backs to there for shorts. If it does start to fall again then everyone will be expecting price to reach 1:1 once more
Euro/Cad Leaving alone
Euro/Yen Possible 5000+ pip triangle break out! We have had a lot of success with triangle break outs this year, but to be honest I have never traded one from a monthly chart & this could be a way off, but have a look at the video. Its there!Another range bound pair. Trend followers who shorted at 113.40 in recent weeks will have had approx 10 winning trades & no losers! Price is on its way back there at the moment so consider again tomorrow.Counter trend traders will consider a long at 112.00. If price breaks either areas then standard M2 break out and pullback method.
Aud/jpy Starting to look bullish on the daily chart & last weeks weekly candle is a “bullish engulfing candle” which definitely suggests a move up here.80.00 will be interesting to short, but risky. Daily 50% fib,  lots of daily & weekly emas, psych level etc ie multiple reasons. Pullback to 76.00 would be good area to consider a long later in the week
Euro/Gbp

 Only looking to short. 0.8380/8400/ still major area for me, consider a pullback to 0.8380 but may only get to 0.8320 if it heads down.
Best of Luck, Marc

If you would like to learn how to trade forex there is loads of free information here on the blog. You can take a copy of my free ebook, simply fill in the box top left of this page to request a copy, you can learn from & help other forex traders in our forum, click here: FORUM or you can consider joining the low cost forex mentor program that I run with Dean Saunders, click here to find out more : Forexmentorpro.com

Trade Forex – A Guide

Comments (1)

We often get asked questions by newcomers to the wonderful world of Forex, the main one being “How do I start to trade Forex”? We have put together this article as a guide to help you navigate this ever-growing website – there should be almost everything on here that you would ever need to know. One of the best places to start is to take a look at this article, which examines the five stages of a Forex trader and will give you an idea of where you are in terms of your development – Trade Forex: Five Stages of a Forex Trader

Hopefully you now know where you are in terms of your trading mindset and abilities. To say there is a huge amount to learn about Forex is something of an understatement. If you don’t already have Marc’s excellent free eBook (we aren’t just saying that, this book is an honest and thorough guide to becoming a professional trader, which makes eBooks that sell for $200 and more look poor), then you can get it here – Marc Walton’s How To Trade Forex

Learn How to Trade Forex - Free

How to Trade Forex is an excellent resource to get you started

Whether you are a total novice or a trader of intermediate skills or experience, it probably pays to check the basics. You can find examples of trade setups and explanations of trading rationale here – Trade Forex: The Basics and ask questions of experienced traders on our Forum here – Trade Forex: Discussions

Hopefully, you now know what a chart looks like and what a pip is, or have brushed up on your knowledge (there is always something for even pro traders to learn, you never stop learning in this game) so what you may need now is a Forex system so you can start to trade Forex on a demo account. There are some systems on our Forum – if you have some trading ideas, why not ask us to start a thread for you so you can share them with other traders – Trade Forex: Systems

Trade Forex with your own trading system

Trade Forex with your own trading system

If you want to get into more complex ideas of technical and fundamental analysis, we can recommend some good books. By now, you probably are very interested in Forex (we certainly were!) and you are hungry for knowledge. Some of the books can be a little…technical and involved, but they are worth persevering with – Trade Forex: Books

If you want to skip expanding your knowledge for now, fair enough, it can be a time consuming process. In that case, you might be interested in outsourcing your signal generation and investing in a Forex signal service provider – we have some reviews and recommendations here – Trade Forex with Forex Signals

Alternatively, you may wish to try your hand at automated Forex trading with a Forex MetaTrader (MT4) Expert Advisor (EA). Don’t worry about all the terminology if it’s a bit daunting. We have the information and reviews you need here – Trade Forex with Expert Advisors

We have also extensively tested some popular robots, including live testing by our members, which you can read about here – Trade Forex Robots: Live Testing

Trade Forex with Forex Robots

If this is your idea of a Forex robot, you better read our guide....

Whilst it can be very tempting to rush in and start trading with your real, hard-earned money, we would recommend you get used to your trading terminal and at least try and understand how your chosen system/signal service/EA functions in real life by trading on a demo account. You may be spending $99 a month on a signal service, but it is far better to “lose” $99 getting to know what you are doing than blowing your account.

You will now want to choose a Forex Broker, and take advantage of their demo account. It’s worth trying a few Brokers to make sure you are happy with the range of instruments they provide, and that their spreads aren’t too large. We have found a few decent Brokers and you can read about them here – Trade Forex Using a Reputable Broker

Whilst you are practicing, you will need to understand both trading psychology (the most overlooked thing in Forex, and the second-most important) and money management (the second-most overlooked thing in Forex and the most important!). To know more about money management, there is a great article here by Marc – Trade Forex Using Proper Money Management

Trade Forex with money management

Once you have worked your way through this list, which shouldn’t take too long, you will probably be better armed and have a better grounding than most retail traders.

We hope this guide was useful both for your trading knowledge and navigating the site. If you have enjoyed what you have read, why not try Marc Walton and Dean Saunder’s “Forex Mentor Pro” service, which provides a great way to learn more about Forex trading from a professional, and at an exceptionally low monthly price?

Good trading.

Simon.


Forex Analysis for the Week Ahead

Leave your comment

Forex Analysis for the week ahead- For those of you who are new, please note that my forex analysis is intended to show where & why I am looking for trade possibilities in the day/week ahead. That way you can put our methods in to practise. We are NOT a tipping service. The aim of this site is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

If you are relatively new to forex and or this site then do not risk real money until you know what you are doing. Every broker has a free metatrader platform that you can practise on. Those who come into forex and are trading within days & weeks are members of the 90%+ group who fail. Take your time & study, practise, study.

M1 Has been getting much better in recent weeks, look around London open.
Lmt Gave a few reasonable trades on 4 hour charts towards the back end of last week, I would leave the daily for now BUT the 4 hour is more sensitive and could start to give us some trades again.
Gbp/$ Still Only looking to short. Same as all last week. Price has failed to break & close above the 78.6% fib so is still in a down trend for me.Macd divergence on 4 hour & daily charts as well. The danger is that price will break back down & then bounce back up again, so I am not expecting 100’s of pip moves in 1 direction unless there is a major news announcement.Decide which time frame you are trading. Then consider the following:

As I show in the video, if you are trading from weekly charts then the main entry area of interest for the week will be 1.5550, if price was to spike up there. We have 50% daily fib, weekly 55ema, trend line & daily bollingers all in the same area; ie multiple reasons. That’s it, place the order, walk away. See you next week! If you are willing to trade counter trend, then consider a half stake long at 1.4775.

Daily charts: I will be looking for reasons to short at 1.5200 again. This is 78.6% fib on the daily + major resistance last few weeks & psych level. Counter trend traders consider a long, half stake @ 1.4930. I do not recommend counter trend trades, but its your decision:)

There is also a triangle break out on the 4 hour charts which broke on Friday. A pullback to 1.5100 would be the norm for this type of move.

Big Gbp news 09.30 London time tomorrow so be careful. Its gdp news which has moved the market the last few times.
Euro/$ I still only want to short: Technically this has broken 78.6 and therefore is a reversal, but I still have my doubts. Also the most accurate forex experts say that this pair will hit parity I Euro = $1) by the start of 2011 so I am not sure. Will look at M1 in the morning.If you think price has reversed then areas to consider longs are 1.2600 (not for me). If price closes below there tomorrow then look for reasons (ie pullbacks) to short.
Chf/$ Broke & Closed below 78.6 so reversal BUT as above the Swiss national Bank could throw the technical stuff out of the window, Will be looking for clues to short at 1.0700 & definitely 1.0800 as per my video analysis
$/Yen Looking for shorts. 90.00 is the overall weekly area. 50% daily fib, support & resistance, emas & psychological number. Anyone mention multiple reasons J

There are lots of clues that price may be due to rise back up. Daily macd divergence, stochastics rolling up & price broke and closed above the 4 hour 55ema which was significant resistance/support Thursday & Friday.

Counter trend/swing traders may wish to consider a long at 88.30 area with a stop at 87.90. This is not a TIP & I will not take it BUT that’s what swing traders look for.
Aud/$ Only interested in a short. BUT as I mentioned above, the weekends Chinese news could see this race up for a while at least. My only suggestion is watch fib/resistance areas for a sign of a bounce back down. This being forex do not discount the possibility that price may go down! In that case counter trend traders will consider 0.8500 to be major support so goo area to enter.
Cad Weekly engulfing candle & break below major support/resistance at 1.0400 suggests it is going down again, but this has been all over the place in recent weeks.

The cad is not my favourite pair. Years ago I coined the phrase “cadsanonymous” for those of us who had been bitten repeatedly by the wild swings on this pair :)

Technically  a pullback to 1.0400 would be a good area to short. I will look at London open and decide then.
Euro/Cad Leaving alone
Euro/Yen Only looking to short. I show in the video how on the monthly chart this long term down trend is confirmed, but as you know price never goes in a straight line so there will be pull backs along the way.

Until the Euro becomes clearer I am leaving this one too.
Aud/jpy Still  looking to short. Wait for all the news to come out. If the news is Aud positive could race back up. If races up then weekly move would be to look for short around 82.30. If trickles up then 80.00 will be very ineresting to short. Daily 50% fib,  lots of daily & weekly emas, psych level etc ie multiple reasons.
Euro/Gbp

Only looking to short. Last week was looking to short at 0.8420 which is still main area, previous support & resistance & daily 50% fib and emas ie lots of reasons, as explained in the video BUT watch the bollingers at market open. They opened on Friday on the daily chart, if they stay open then this could move higher. If so then next area to consider shorting is 0.8500.Have a great week, Regards, Marc
Best of Luck, Marc

The above is a copy of some of my detailed analysis that is available to members of the forex mentor program I run with Dean Saunders. I do this every trading day, BEFORE the event. To find out more click on the following link;

Possible 1000 Pip Move on Gbp/Yen & Forex Analysis for 20th June 2010

Leave your comment

Hi, welcome to this weekends free forex update. We have had a lot of success in the last few months with very technical forex trades. There is such a trade forming now on the Gbp/Yen & fundamentals could support this theory in the week ahead. Lots of positive emails re last weeks posts’ showing you how to avoid losing trades. If you didn’t have the chance to watch them yet then I strongly recommend that you do so NOW :)

As I explained our 1st priority is to not lose. In the current markets that is easier said than done. Personally I have been taking fewer trades and only those with the highest potential. Last week I only made 5 trades all week. I moved stops to entry/took the 1st profit at the 1st sign of trouble and only had smallish profit targets.

Remember our weekly, basic target is 100 pips/20 pips a day. We have had plenty of weeks in 2010 where members have achieved over 500 pips, those were the great weeks that come along from time to time. When times are more difficult just go into “ultra conservative mode” & wait for better times, they are always just around the corner.

Trading with the Trend

This is easier said than done at the moment due to the uncertainty BUT over the long term trading with the trend is acknowledged to be the safest, most profitable method. Why would you wish to sell a pair when the rest of the world seem determined to buy? Forex is one of those occasions in life when you want to running with the herd.

The big banks & hedge funds are the ones who drive the markets, all we little guys want to do is hang on their coat tails and grab some of the profit for ourselves. You have no chance of forcing the markets with your $1 a pip trades when there is $2+ TRILLION changing hands everyday :)  So do NOT try to force trades.

I mentioned last week that many pairs are currently at the limit of their current trends, so we have the eternal question of whether these moves are simply pullbacks or reversals. Pullbacks are to be expected after such major moves but you can never tell. Remember my mantra “IF IN DOUBT STAY OUT“

Despite all this uncertainty we have had some decent technical trades in the last few weeks, especially triangle break outs. There are a few of them forming at the moment and there are also a few possible Plan B trades at market open. If you missed the previous post re Plan B trades, you can find it on the forex strategies page.

News

Last week we had days with very little movement until news announcements proved to be the catalyst. Tomorrow is a fairly light news day until 17.30 London time when the ECB President, Mr Trichet is making a speech to the European parliament. This could cause massive spikes on any/all European pairs. Do not open trades near the London close & if you are already in then either move stops tight or take your profit.

M1 As I showed in last weeks videos how this could be the best method at the moment & certainly help you avoid bad trades. Check pre London open
Lmt

 There are some possible moves developing on the daily charts for later in the week. There is a probable daily signal on the Aud/Jpy at the market open. Wait for any gaps to close before considering taking, but there is room below to recent lows.
Gbp/$ Still Only looking to short. Price stayed above the major resistance @ 1.4775 and the weekly candle closed above.Counter trend traders will consider a long after a pullback, not for me but 1.4775 is the area. This is previous resistance becomes support as well as  a 4 hour trend line.

More conservative countertrend traders will wait for a break and close above 1.4850 on the 4 hour.

Trend traders will consider a short at this point but the problem is it is only 50 odd pips back down to 1.4775. If you shorted at a break, close and pullback at 1.4775 the problem is there are the 4 hour 200 & 55emas not far below.

Best advice is to wait for a clear break out and look again at Mondays candle close
Euro/$ I only want to short. Look at daily Bollinger at market open. If closes, suggests a move back down is more likely. Very similar 4 hour pattern to the Gbp/$. Counter trend traders will consider a long at the 4 hour trend line around 1.2350 tomorrow  or a break and close above  1.2450

Trend traders will look at possible shorts at 1.2430 or more conservatively; break & close on 4 hour trend line.

Personally speaking, if it gets all the way to 1.2600 will be interested, anything else and I will not :)

Chf/$ Still looking to long but this is tricky. Counter trend traders may consider a Plan B short trade. Personally I will be looking for clues to go long at 1.0900 area & especially 1.0820
$/Yen Only looking to short. A Pullback to 91.20 would be a good place to consider a short. Counter trend traders will be waiting to long at 90.00
Aud/$ Only interested in a short. But it broke major resistance at 0.8665 on Friday & it is starting to look bullish. Not sure, so staying out of this one. Check again tomorrows candle close.
Cad Only interest in a short. Possible Plan B trade or pullback to 1.0250 would be best opportunities.
Euro/Cad I am only interested in shorting Leaving tomorrow. Too much support & resistance in the area. Will be looking to short if price gets back up to 1.2850/weekly trend line later in week.
Euro/Yen Only looking to short. Daily triangle break out brewing. Need price to break and close below trend line and 4 hour 55ema which is currently at 111.80. Need a break & close below there on 4 hour, followed by a pullback. If it goes up at market open watch daily bollingers. If they close then a bounce back down off 114.00 would be a logical area as it is the psych level, previous support & resistance as well as 4 hour 200ema.
Aud/jpy Still  looking to short. 80.00/80.20 is a very big area, watch daily Bollinger if closes favours a short either at 80.00 or triangle break out.If bollinger stays open then 82.50 could be next stop from where I will definitely be looking to short as there are plenty of weekly /& daily emas there. Final option watch for possible daily triangle break out downwards.
Euro/Gbp

Gbp/Yen

 Only looking to short. 0.8400/8420 next strong areas. At the moment 0.8380 is strong resistance. Counter trend traders could consider bounces back up from 0.8220 area

Only looking to short. Possible 1200 pip triangle break out. Want price to break through & close below bottom triangle/trend line and 4 hour 55ema and then pullback to there (around 134.20 )
Best of Luck, Marc

The above is an example of the analysis/advice that members of our low cost forex mentor program receive every trading day. There are dozens of mini educational videos to teach you how to trade forex. This is suitable for complete beginners through to intermediate level forex traders. To find out more, click on the following link:

Possible Big Forex Trades for the Week Ahead

Leave your comment

Hi, lots of emails from members who caught some of the Gbp move on Friday, I was away and missed it. This was a move that I had suggested 5 days earlier. As I have explained in the last few weeks we ony need to catch a couple of these moves in a week, job done. There are lots of traders  who spend hour after hour looking at charts and taking dozens of trades. Learn to sit back & try to only take the best few opportunities that the week offers.

I have just got back from a weekend spent in a hotel with 200+ very noisy teenagers (I coach one of the Islands football teams). I have had about 12 hours sleep in the last 4 days & am absolutely worn out. I have only had chance to do a brief video BUT there are some interesting areas lining up again. I will do a more detailed post tomorrow evening, have a great week, regards, marc

Possible 1000 Pip Triangle Break Out & Free Forex Analysis for Week Ahead

Comments (1)

Hi, we should be in for a very exciting roller coaster ride on lots of pairs this week. Remember back a few weeks ago when we were all praying for movement? Be careful what you wish for :)

The secret to being successful at the moment is to take your time. Do not force trades. Wait for price to come to you. In last Sundays update (repeated on Monday) I explained I was waiting for the Cad to pull back to to 1.0200. We had to wait until Wednesday for the trap to close, but that move alone was almost 2 weeks worth of pips.

On Monday I repeated Sundays suggestion that 1.0700 would be a good area for the Chf to pullback to. It did on Tuesday & went 200+ pips overall. Finally on Thursday evening I said;
“There are a few potential moves I can see on bigger timeframes. The Gbp/$ is coming back up towards the weekly support & resistance area of 1.5380 again so I will be looking for clues to short there”. These 3 moves were worth over 500 pips. As member Pierre said In Fridays message,

“As you say Marc, set the trap and wait – even if it takes days but the results will be out of this world.”

There is simply no need to sit at your computer all day. It leads to poor health, stress & tired decisions where you will invariably lose. Many members now tell me that they do their week-ends analysis before I post mine. They then compare theirs & mine So they are starting to see things for themselves.

You need to develop this type of mentality for yourself. I do my analysis 2 or 3 hours before daily candle close & I am trying to predict something that is allegedly impossible to do! Often other opportunities will arise during the day that you have the chance to win decent pips but you will be unable to take advantage of them if you have not put in the effort.

We are here @ forexmentorpro to teach you how to do this for yourself. Many of you have the dream of quitting your day job & trading full-time. If you were going to re-train for any other career that has the potential to earn you a lot of money & give you a great deal of freedom then you would expect to put in a lot of hard work.

I still get people who have only been with us a few days and are desperate to start trading. Guys if you want to give money away just send it to me :) The brokers just love new traders who don’t know what they are doing. They are like crocodiles at the side of the river just waiting for some idiot non swimmer to take a dip. DONT do it.

This ability to see things for yourself will enable you to take advantage of things when I have spoken of  ”areas of interest” in recent weeks. Normally I give out definate areas I am looking to trade, BUT things were so uncertain recently that it was safer not to do so. Some of you are still trying to use us as a “tipping service”  I am often very accurate BUT as I have said before if I win the lottery or God forbid get run over by a bus, I am out of here. If you have not learned for yourself you will be back at square one.

There is enough information & knowledge on our forexmentorpro site for you to become successful forex traders but you have to put the effort in as well.

The Week Ahead

There is an unbelievable amount of news, speeches & bank holidays this week. A week that culminates in the dreaded NFP Friday. This week is likely to be humongously volatile but if we are careful, patient & disciplined then we will have the opportunity to do well.

We have Bank holidays in various parts of the world tomorrow including the UK. Japan has 3 days of bank holidays, Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday. I will not trade any pairs with either of these tomorrow nor any Yen related pairs until Thursday. Why? Last week I was in an Aud/Jpy trade for 10 hours (I failed to check the calendar properly). The trade went absolutely nowhere as did the $/Yen. What usually happens if people trade on bank holidays is either there is no movement or price sets off in a strange direction and fails to respect support/resistance, fibs etc. Best advice is don’t do it.

M1 Check around London open. We have had a lot of gaps & big moves in recent weeks BUT this method has started to work well again in the last week or so. When it does work this method can be extremely simple and often leads to quick profits.
Lmt I can see no possible daily signals for market open on alpari. Waiting for trends to re-establish themselves on most pairs.
Gbp/$ Possible 1000 pip triangle pattern break out forming as I show in todays video. This is on top of last weeks explanation re flag pattern break out SO lots of things technically suggest that the Gbp is in for a big fall.

If it wasn’t for the bank holiday I would be happy to short at 1.5380 again for all the same reasons that I explained in Thursday/Fridays blog post. However leave alone tomorrow because of the bank holiday. Also Thursday is a general election in Britain & for the 1st time in ages there is the distinct possibility that no single party will win. If that is the case then this could be extra volatile the following week as well. Markets HATE uncertainty so Tuesday/Wednesday could be best bet for all things Gbp.
Euro/$ The Greek tragedy has further to run & is likely to continue to create volatility on this pair & all things Euro. There are meetings in Athens & Brussels today to try finalise an agreement BUT the German local elections are next week & the deal could still be blown out of the water. This will run & run. I think that there will be an announcement tomorrow morning & there is definitely a speech by Trichets likely successor, Axel Weber at 10.00 BST so be careful around London open.I show in the video that on the monthly candle there has always been a pullback on this pair for more than a year so probability says that it will go up for at least a while and positive news re Greece could give it a push, albeit short term. Technically this is still in a down trend and therefore it’s a case of where to short. I will be very wary until the Greek news is settled but 1.3400 & 1.3500 will be definite “areas of interest” in the next few days.
Chf/$ If the Euro does go up then the Chf will go down. 1.0700 will be important again & just below that the weekly 55ema at 1.0665 means that this area will be hugely important. The problem will be that if the Euro races price could plough straight through here. Let the dust settle after the Euro news/speeches.
$/Yen Leaving until Thursday because of the Bank Holidays.

The above is just a brief example of the detailed daily analysis we provide in our forex mentor program. We have a 5* rating on forex peace army. We have dozens of educational videos. ebooks & daily blog posts as well as email support. If you would like to know more click on the following link:

Free Forex Weekly Analysis & Possible 600 Pip Move on Gbp/$

Leave your comment

Welcome all, We have had a few tricky weeks and I can honestly say I am sick of it so lets get back to work and start to make some pips!

Gaps

We have had some huge gaps at the market open in the last few weeks & I suspect that this week will be no exception so make sure you wait until the markets have opened and let the dust settle. This week-end we have had the G20 conference concluding as well as an IMF meeting & the slight matter of the world trying to digest Greeces’ request for up to $60 Billion of loans. I have had some success trading gaps in the last few weeks BUT i personally find it far too stressful & will wait until the London open tomorrow.

News

There are only 2 scheduled news announcements for tomorrow, which is extremely unusual but the Greek crisis is likely to rumble on for the foreseeable future so there is the dangerous prospect of unscheduled comments causing spikes and great volatility on ANY Euro pairs in the coming weeks. To make matters worse Mr Trichet makes speeches virtually every day of next week so be especially careful around these. Any unexpected comment could see 50/60 pip spikes in a heart beat. My best advice is only be in one Euro trade at a time. Do not open trades just before Trichet speeches & move stops tight before he speaks if you are already in a trade.

M1 Asian session could be busy again in which case this method will not work. The good thing is it only takes 2 minutes to check this method. If nothing is possible I will go back to bed J
Lmt

 There are a few possible daily signals for tomorrow on Alpari platform but because of the lack of clear trends I do not have any confidence so will leave alone. The LMT is a trend following system. We have little or no trends hence it will not work until they return. Not for me at the moment
Gbp/$ Possible 600 pip flag pattern break out on this pair as I show in the video. The bottom trend line is around 1.5300 so look break out followed by a pullback for a further move down. This is a fairly strong trend line and psych level so consider possible bounces back up from there (counter trend 50% stake) On the upside price has failed to close above 1.5380 which is a weekly resistance area. Price may just bounce between these 2 areas. If price gets up to 1.5560 later in the week I will be very keen to short. Fairly light news week for this pair so hopefully we will have a technical week. There is a general election coming up in 10 days time so there is some uncertainty.
Euro/$ I had an order to short at 1.3700 last week which I cancelled on the Wednesday. Price has since fallen 500 pips. On the weekly charts this looks so obvious now. This is still in a clear down trend for me. As usual I am looking for a pullback for entry. 1.3500 seems the logical point. We have 61.8% fib of daily move, psych level & it was previous support & resistance, so lots of reasons. If it gets all the way to 1.3580 (seems unlikely now, but you never know:) then I will definitely look to short it
Chf/$ I said last week that if it goes up I need price to break and close above 1.0700. This happened on Thursday so now we need a pullback. 1.0700 is an obvious area to consider 1.0660 would be even better as it is the weekly 55ema which was resistance for the previous 5 weeks & therefore should now become support.
$/Yen Has been all over the place recently and could simply bounce around again BUT price has broken and cleared the weekly 55ema & psych level of 93.00 and is riding the 5ema on the daily & the weekly bollingers opened last week, so lots of clues it may be about to break out upwards. Also the 34/55emas have crossed the 200ema on the daily chart for the 1st time since September 2008 so lots of clues that this is on its way up. Watch daily & weekly Bollinger bands at market open. If stay open gives even more confidence.

The flip side of this pair is that it has been up and down like a yo-yo in recent weeks. If it does break back down to 92.00 area I would be definitely looking to long.

The above is just a small selection of analysis I do on up to 10 forex pairs every trading day for members of my low cost forex mentor program. To find out more click on the following banner advertisement:



Free Forex Video Analysis for 22nd April 2010

Leave your comment

Another great video for you today with guest analyst David Strack:

There are some very interesting discussions going on in the Forum at the moment. Why not sign up and join in?

Forex-FXTrader Forum

Have a great day and good luck with you trading.

Simon.

Free Forex Analysis for Week Commencing 18th April 2010

Leave your comment

Hi, welcome to the start of another weeks forex trading. Hopefully you managed to make pips from Fridays analysis on the Euro/Gbp which was a simple break out, followed by a pullback. Standard M2 trading method. There are more of this type of trade lining up for tomorrow as explained in the video below. After last weeks gaps at the market open I am going to concentrate on daily & intra-day trades trades for the week ahead.

The Goldman Sachs Fraud Case which was announced late on Friday may cause more volatility at the market open. Personally I will wait until London open before deciding on tomorrows trades. There is a huge amount of news this week which again is likely to drive price as we wait for the markets to establish some overall trends. Trading with the trend is much safer and a lot easier to analyse.

The $USA gained late in the New York session on Friday, now we have to discover whether this just a temporary phenomenon or the start of some $ strength. The Euro zone & Great Britain has a lot of scheduled news this week and there is the ongoing crisis with the fallout (literally) from the Icelandic volcano eruption. Almost all flights have been cancelled since Friday. This is obviously costing the Airlines a fortune but there is the further knock on effect to all these economies if this situation drags on.

The Greek situation has not gone away & the UK has a general election in a couple of weeks time. Markets hate uncertainty so all of this could lead to yet more volatility. I have had a much higher % of losers in the last few weeks than normal because trades are being taken out before reversing back in the direction I want. If you are having the same problems, don’t beat yourself up. Concentrate on the lower risk trades like the one I pointed out on Fridays Euro/Gbp.

The current choppiness is not easy, but there are trades to be had. Trade conservatively. Wait for price to come to your pre-determined place. Only trade 1 pair at a time. Consider reduced stakes if you are not too confident. If you are relatively new continue to trade on a demo account. Use the time to learn. Heaping stress upon yourself is a pointless exercise.

Note to new members: This is NOT a tipping service. What we aim to do here at forexmentorpro is to teach you how to trade forex for yourself. I show you in the daily blog posts the areas that I am looking to take trades & why. All based around the M1 & M2 methods that we teach in the forex strategies section. If you are new please start in the LMT section. You do NOT need the LMT BUT the videos in that section are fundamental for mine & most professional forex traders systems; support & resistance, fibs, trend lines etc


M1 Asian session could be busy again in which case this method will not work. The good thing is it only takes 2 minutes to check this method. If nothing is possible I will go back to bed J
Lmt Still too much sideways movement.. The LMT is a trend following system. We have little or no trends hence it will not work until they return. Leaving alone
Gbp/$ The Icelandic volcano is crippling Britain at the moment. This uncertainty may contribute to a weakening of the Gbp. There is House Price Inflation news around the market open. Housing costs are very important in the UK economy. Another months weak figures would put further strain on the Gbp. Price finally broke and closed below 1.5380. This is also a break out on a 4 hour chart as I show you in the video. Standard M2 method we now need a pullback to around 1.5370 for a short.
Euro/$ I had an order to short at 1.3700 last week which I cancelled on the Wednesday. Doh, price then fell 200 pips over the next couple of days. Moveon.com J There are very mixed signals on this pair at the moment. A 50% fib pullback of last weeks candle would spookily take us back to 1.3580 which is also the monthly 55ema which has been hugely important over the last few months. So I will consider shorts there and possible half stake longs (counter trend) at 1.3380 BUT I will decide at the time NOT a forward order. Price could simply fall straight through here.
Chf/$ Very messy. Price has again stopped at major support & resistance & daily trend line at 1.0610. It may once again bounce back down from here but its not for me. If the Euro does fall down this will go up. If it goes up I need price to break and close above 1.0700. We have had a lot of opportunities to long around 1.0510 in the last few weeks so I will consider a half stake long if it gets back down there.
$/Yen One to watch: Finally we got the triangle break out on Friday that we had waited for all week. You could have successfully traded this from the 4 hour charts on Friday, but if you are a daily charts fan we now need a pullback to this line around 92.90 tomorrow which also happens to be the weekly 55ema & the psychological level triangle break & the 50% fib of last weeks move ie MULTIPLE reasons which as you know is what I am looking for. My main concern Is that it might not get that far back so watch carefully around 92.50. The theory of a triangle break out suggests that there could be another 150 pip fall here.

The Above is just a small example of the detailed analysis I provide every day on up to 10 forex pairs with my low cost forex mentor program. We have over 50 mini educational videos, e-books & indicators as well as the daily blog post & email support from myself and Dean. Between us we have over 14 years experience trading forex from our respective homes and have “been there & done that” including every mistake known to man! If you would like to know more, click on the banner below:

Free Forex Video Analysis – Euro Focus

Leave your comment

Today’s video from guest trader David focuses on the fundamental issues facing the Euro at the moment. This is a very interesting analysis and is well worth a watch.

Hope you enjoy this video and have a good weekend.

Simon.

Free Forex Video Analysis for 15th April 2010

Leave your comment

Hi, we’ve got another free daily analysis video from David today – you can watch it below:


We’ve also added a lot of new product reviews to the Forum. We’ve done a fairly extensive test of some of the latest Expert Advisors and are impressed with a few of them -

Forum Expert Advisor reviews

We’ve also added a review of ACT Brokers, a US ECN broker that allows hedging and other trading activities banned by the new FIFO rules – Atc Forex Ecn Review

Have a good day,

Simon.

Free forex Analysis for 14th April 2010

Leave your comment

Hi Simon here. I used to post in the forum under the name Baboon (Don’t ask me why)! Marc is struggling to keep up with the forexmentorpro site, trade forex for a living and give this blog & forum the time it requires, so I have offered to do it for him! Marc will still post his uncannily accurate weekly analysis updates & videos, and be around to offer support & advice, but I intend to have lots more free stuff for you every day so dont forget to drop by on a regular basis.

I have also managed to persuade New York pro forex trader, David to let us have a copy of his video analysis twice a week from now on, (latest video below) Wednesdays & Fridays. If you would like to make sure that you receive notification of new posts & if you would like a copy of the free e-book, “How to Trade Forex” make sure you fill in your email details in the box to the left of this article. Lots of great new ideas in the pipe line. If you have any suggestions please let me know on the forum (link above).

Today is the last day that you can join the forexmentorpro site that Marc runs at the introductory price of only $29.95 per month (goes up to $49.95 tomorrow). If you join now you “lock in” the ridiculously low price  for the lifetime of your membership. It has a 5* rating on forexpeacearmy & has a whole host of educational videos/e books & indicators as well as support & daily blog analysis to help novice & intermediate level traders achieve their goals.  It is the best value for money site I have ever seen, so if you are thinking of joining do NOT delay a moment longer :)

http://www.forexmentorpro.com/special-discount.php

Free Forex Analysis for 6th April 2010

Comments (1)

Hi, I am back, cough almost gone. Thanks to all the well-wishers/thanks for all the remedies, ancient & modern. Also thanks to Dean for filling in for me at short notice. Simple solution was I just needed a rest and some sun. We live 500 metres from the beach & have an almost perfect climate & yet I can’t remember the last time I sat on it & chilled.  I tell you not to trade if you do not feel 100% – once again I am great at giving advice, need to follow it more often :)

I didn’t post yesterday for the simple reason that half of the worlds traders were missing today and therefore it was likely that very little would happen AND things could change completely tomorrow when the big guys get back. There is the further fact that the NFP news was still released on Friday even though most of the world had a  day off, therefore after todays candle close will be the 1st time the pro traders/banks will have had the opportunity to trade the statistics & todays much better than expected USA existing home sales.

Fridays & Todays inertia could be followed by some explosive moves tomorrow. My best advice if you can only/choose to trade from the daily/weekly charts is wait & see what happens tomorrow. Often NFP gives us direction for the following month & lots of pairs are at extremes at the moment. One more day will not kill us, but could seriously damage your accounts if you dive in.

If the asian session is quiet (I have my doubts, but we live in hope) then the M1 could be the best possible method tomorrow after such little movement today, so if you can trade around the London open then make sure to drop by.

Another Big News Week

News has been a big factor in moves for many of the pairs so far this year & there is lots of MAJOR news this week on lots of pairs. Starting after todays candle close there is the 1st interest rate decision of the week, this one from the Bank Of Australia. The BoA has been raising rates, but there is uncertainty over tomorrows announcement. Do NOT touch this pair until after the rate & the statement have been delivered and digested.

Best Advice for tomorrow: Is Wait & See.

Personally I am not in a rush to trade & would strongly recommend any inexperienced traders to simply sit & watch. We need to hang on to the coat tails of the big guys, so let them fight it amongst themselves & show us the way to go. The following figures are only “areas of interest” for your perusal. If you do trade, only place one trade at a time and consider reducing your stake.

M1 Started to liven up and a few decent wins last week. We had a good 3 months run with this pre Christmas, lets hope this is the start we have been waiting for. If the asian session is quiet we could have some opportunities here
Lmt Waiting for trends. Leave until we see some.
Gbp/$ Broke daily 78.6% fib so could be on its way back up. Normally I would be very keen to long at 1.5232 as explained in the video. Possible counter trend short around 1.5380
Euro/$ Still technically in a down trend for me. 1.3580/1.3600 is strong previous support/resistance. Monthly 55ema. Psych level. 61.8% fib so loads of reasons to normally want to short there BUT……
Chf/$ Starting to look bullish but in a recent daily down trend. Had lots of success shorting around 1.0700 earlier in the year. Will be of interest again tomorrow and then possible longs at 1.0500
$/Yen I Sneeked a decent 200 pip move here last week (wife forbade me to trade but I just set it & forgot it J. I explained on the weekly how it looked to be breaking upwards which it has now done.  Now need to find a pullback to get in again. 93.00 of great interest for number of reasons as explained in the video
Aud/$ There is a LOT of news on this pair this week, including interest rate & statement @ 05.30 BST (GMT +1)be extra careful.We are back at the upper trend line at 0.9200 which held again last week. 0.9100 has been previous strong support so price could bounce between these two areas again.
Cad/$ Leaving. Need a decent pullback.
Euro/Cad Price broke 1.3600 so usually would be looking to short if price pulls back there. However could be limited move down as 1.3500 is previous major support/treble bottom going back to March 2006 so the brave may consider a reduced stake/counter trend long around there.
Euro/Yen Possible long opportunity at 125.00 but I am a bit wary with this one.
Aud/jpy Finally broke out of its narrow range. Need a pullback. If Aud news is negative and price pulls all way back to 84/84.20 later in the week, will be interested to long
Euro/Gbp Normally one of my favourite pairs but all over the place at the moment. Watching & waiting



Best of Luck, Marc

The above is an example of the low cost forex mentoring service I run. Lots of educational mini videos & daily updates showing you where I am looking to trade the following day. Sometimes its just as important to know when NOT to trade :) If you would like to know more, click on the following banner link, those who join before next week lock in the low, low price of only $29.95 per month. This price will rise for NEW members who join after 12th April to $49.95 a month

Free Forex Analysis for Week Commencing 28th March 2010

Leave your comment

Hi, strange couple of weeks finally seemed to have fizzled out. I mentioned a fortnight ago that the USA & Canada had moved their clocks forward 2 weeks earlier than the rest of us and it may have an effect. Did it? I don’t know BUT European clocks went forward today (Sunday) so everything is hopefully back in psync.

Lots of emails from those of you who caught some of the predicted/hoped for moves on the Gbp/$, Euro/$, Jpy & Chf moves later in the week. Hopefully the newer members amongst you will have learned why I bang on about patience & discipline. By walking away and leaving the markets alone until price comes to us (as per Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan) you can avoid all the pain, stress & suffering & capitalise when things are in our favour.

Often we can make a months worth of pips (400 is my minimum target) in just a couple of days.  One new member made his 1st “live” trade on Thursday for a 140 pip win which is incredible. Lots of people will have lost a  lot of money in the recent uncertainty with price bouncing around in small ranges on many pairs. If you followed my advice & the money management rules hopefully you will have avoided all of the aforementioned stress.

There is a huge amount of news this week culminating in the dreaded NFP friday. This is likely to be sillier & even more erratic than normal as most of the worlds traders will be taking the day off. So you get a short week! Check calendars everyday before entering trades & also be aware that the Greek situation has not gone away & there is a G8 summit in Canada and a raft of other politicians making speeches, all of which could lead to lots of volatility.

M1 Started to liven up and a few decent wins last week. We had a good 3 months run with this pre Christmas, lets hope this is the start we have been waiting for.
Lmt

Started to get movement and hopefully new trends which this system desperately needs. There is a probable Euro/Gbp trade signal tonight on the daily on Alpari’s platform. I quite like the look of that one. There is certainly room above & stochastics & 5/8 cross look to be in our favour (as long as there is no “gap” down at market open). I am less confident with a possible Chf short signal. Price is currently stopped at the weekly 55ema/previous support & resistance line and Fridays candle was a little on the large side. Prefer if this pulls back to say 1.07000 and then look for possible clues to short there
Gbp/$ Currently half way between recent support & resistance areas. Will be very interested in shorting at 1.5000 again. Psychological level, big previous support now resistance, 4 hour 55 ema, 61.8% fib of last weeks moves, daily trend line, in other words multiple reasons! Consider possible bounces back up at 1.4800, but counter trend so half stake.
Euro/$ I show in the video how the overall, monthly move would tempt us to short at 1.3550 for multiple reasons, however for intraday trades we may not get such a big move. 1.3450 was strong previous support and is 61.8% of Fridays move so also consider shorts there and 1.3490. The bollingers and macd divergence suggest a move up tomorrow, but this one could be  a little tricky. We are in a longer term down trend though so I favour shorting if we can get an entry.
Chf/$ Looking to short at 1.07000 and then possible longs at 1.0580  & definitely if price gets back to 1.05000 due to fibs, emas etc as explained in the video
$/Yen Two types of trades I am looking for here. I am looking to long for both. 1st entry point of interest for both is our normal break out pullback. Pullback to 91.50. If price does pull back further in the week, say to 90.000 I will definitely be looking for a longer term, reduced stake “carry trade.” I explain in the video the principle behind the carry trade. This is not the best pair for this at the moment due to low USA interest rates, the Aud/Jpy for example is a better bet for this method. For more details check out Investopedia

The above (and the video) is a brief selection of detailed analysis I prepare every trading day for members of the low cost forex mentor program that I run. If you would like to know more click on the following banner

Free Forex Analysis for 22nd March 2010

Leave your comment

Hi, hope you are all enjoying your weekend. I had quite a few emails Friday from newer members who were having difficulties because price was simply piling straight through support & resistance. Things you have to bear in mind here; NOTHING is guaranteed in forex. What we are aiming for is probability, certainty is simply not possible.

The other thing to take on board is the fact that all week I was warning how difficult things were. On Thursday I explained I had gone into ultra cautious mode & Friday I said my best advice was to leave the markets alone until things settled down. If you are in-experienced and you continue to trade despite the resident “expert” :) telling you not to, then do not be confused/disappointed when things go wrong.

If I told you that a certain Casino had croupiers that were definitely cheating, would you still go with your hard earned cash? Of course not! (If you answered yes to the previous question you have a serious gambling habit :) Our number one priority as forex traders is to NOT LOSE. When things are not in our favour, learn to walk away.

Since the end of December we have had some brilliant results just from placing trades from weekly analysis. At the moment I am waiting for the markets to form a trend/stop all of this bouncing back & forth. Therefore I am looking to trade only from daily & 4 hour charts until things become clearer.

When markets are not behaving in a way that we feel comfortable with, then spend your time studying the re-vamped forex strategies area. Watch the videos/study the analysis so that when things do go back to normal you will be able to capitalise.

Big news Week

Lots of news this week on most pairs so make sure to check those calendars before placing trades.

Flag Patterns

In the last few months we have had some major wins following “flag pattern” break outs (if you are new there is video explaining flag patterns in the forex strategies page) I can see a few possibilities brewing for this method. I may have doubts from a logical perspective, BUT technically they look correct. See the video for details.

If you do trade in the early part of this week, then I would strongly suggest that you reduce your stakes & follow the money management rules EXACTLY – these can be found in the M1 & M2 introduction section of the forex strategies page.

M1 Worked on a few pairs on Friday, including the Gbp/$ & Euro/$ lets hope this back to its winning ways
Lmt

 Quite a few possible signals tomorrow on alpari uk platform. A lot of the candles are too big and therefore “no trades” Personally I am leaving this method alone until we have some definite trends.
Gbp/$ Possible 700 pip flag pattern break out is a definite possibility. Price is currently at a major area right now. 1.500 is an obvious psychological area, is previous support & resistance and a trend line. What we need to know here is price going to bounce back up here all the way back up to the top of the channel or break down. I would say that the odds are 50/50 which is not what we want to hear! I would prefer a confirmed break below 1.5000 followed by a pullback. If price starts to go back up then I would be very interested in shorting at 1.5140 area. This is previous support and resistance as well as a daily trend line. The problem is though that last week price simply continued through these kinds of areas, so be careful. If gets higher than this then later in the week I will definitely be looking to short at the upper trend line anywhere between 1.5310/40.
Euro/$ Fridays candle was a break of a flag pattern/trend line which suggest a 900 pip move down. Very difficult to believe but standard procedure here is to look for a pullback with a view to a short. The flag bottom line will be at 1.3590 tomorrow which is also near the psych level AND the monthly 55ema which as held the recent move, in other words multiple reasons why a short looks attractive here. If price gets down to 1.3450 the brave amongst you may consider a counter trend /half stake long here.
Chf/$ If the Euro does go down then the Chf will go up (97% correlation this year), but could be a limited move. Will struggle at 1.0650 (weekly 55ema & previous support & resistance), 1.0675 (weekly trend line) & finally 1.0700 which was major previous support, hence all areas to consider a move back down.

If price gets back down to 1.0510 area then I will be very interested to long here. Previous support & weekly 50% fib of recent moves so HUGE support area as seen on Wednesday of last week.
$/Yen Ignoring most yens until we have some kind of confirmed break out. This one is in a triangle pattern so look for break out and pullback to 0.9000 or upwards break of 0.9080 and then pullback either on 4 hour or daily. Overall still waiting to short at 0.9150 area from monthly downwards trend line & daily 200ema
Aud/$ Continues to bounce between 0.9100 & 0.9200. Too small a range for me.
Be cautious. The priority is to not lose money. If you have doubts then reduce your stake per trade & follow the money management rules to the letter. Remember you do not HAVE to trade. If in doubt. STAY OUT
Best of Luck, Marc

The above is just a small example of the analysis I provide every trading day to members of my low cost forex mentor program. The site includes 40+ mini videos to teach complete beginners through to intermediate level forex traders, how to become successful. We hava a 5* rating on forexpeacearmy for quality & value. To find out more click on the following link:

Free Forex Advice for NFP Friday 5th March 2010

Leave your comment

Hi, my best advice for NFP Friday is: DON’T DO IT!  :) I have explained many times before why I do not trade today. This is forex at its most illogical, silliest most volatile period. You can win or more likely lose in a heart beat. rather than me repeating myself, here’s a video I did in December showing you why I do not recommend trading NFP news, especially if you are new. I do show you a method that one of the “gurus” shows you on fxstreet, but to save you the 2 hours of tedium it takes only 2 minutes for me to explain in the following video: NFP Friday & Why I do NOT trade it

Guest presenter David from New York explains a few things in the video at the bottom of the page, that he may take a few trades AFTER the news has been released and certainly potential trades for Monday.

Forexmentorpro

We had a tricky start to the week this week but it all came good on Wednesday when 5 out of 6 of my “tips” came good for 100′s of pips. This is a copy of my summary that was posted on the blog of the mentor service that I run;

“I have had a lot of emails today asking me how did I “know” that the Euro was going to bounce back up & the Chf down. I have no more of a crystal ball than anyone else, but this is why I tell you to specialise in a few pairs as I honestly believe that you can develop a “feel” for markets. Do I get it right all the time? Of course not, but those of you who have been with me for a while know that I am correct more times than not :) For a refresher take a look at last nights video again.

One of the members, Barry, kindly sent me a review of one of the best forex books that I have ever read, called “Trading in the Zone”, by Mark Douglas. I will post this on Friday. I haven’t read the book for ages but one of the important points the author makes is;

“To be in the Zone: Your mind and the market are in sync. You sense what the market is about to do as if there is no separation between yourself and the collective consciousness of everyone else in the market”.

Can you learn to do this? Of course you can, BUT its a damn sight easier starting with two or three pairs rather than ten!

What was apparant today was that you need to take small first profits & stops to entry as soon as possible in the current markets. The nearer we get to the dreaded NFP Friday the more likely the movements will dry up (excluding news of course) .

5 out of 6 Aint bad :)

  1. Euro/$ I said that I felt that the recent major resistance level of 1.3650 would not hold this time & I explained my reasons why. I suggested that price could bounce back down at 1.3740. I took just 15 pips off the 1st part and I have moved my stop on the second part to entry + 15 pips. This is risk free and gives this a little bit of room to breathe.
  2. I said that the Chf could break 1.0700 which has held for last week or more and possibly come as far down as 1.0660 & bounce up. It did.
  3. Been saying for over a week that the Aud should be going up. Said last night to look for a pullback to 0.9010. It did. gave 60+ pips on 1st move. I am still in with 2nd. left stop at entry. This could go a lot further.
  4. Was looking for pullback to 0.8900 on $/Yen. Said the daily bollinger suggested further fall. It teased by closing 2 pips above where I wanted last night but it did pullback and is currently up 50 pips. I am still in from the short from 90.00 so its been a good week for me on this pair, which is not my favourite.
  5. Euro/Gbp Said to look for pullbacks to 0.9050. It did. I have been in and out of this three times today. Each time only for average of 20 pips, but hey its a win!
  6. Said to look for pullback to 1.5050 on the Gbp/$ WRONG. Price went straight through. This was just general $ weakness today, NOT  a Gbp move.
  7. Said to look for a pullback on the Cad to 1.0375. I had an order in at 1.0365. It missed by 4 pips and fell 80. doh!

If you would like to find out more about the forexmentorpro service then click on the following banner/link. We have over 40 mini educational videos to teach beginners through to intermediate level forex traders as well as daily blog updates where I show you which trades I am looking to take the next day. At the moment the price is only $29.95  a month for those who join now. At the end of March we will be raising the price to $49.95 for NEW members (I paid over $3000 many years ago for a course that delivered much less)!

To find out more, Click on the following Banner:

Elliott Wave Theory: Part 1

Comments (2)

Part 1: Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory : By Julie H. Julie Is an ex professional bank forex trader. Along with her husband Jay they have over 25 years experience trading forex at the highest level. They are also regular contributors to the forex mentor site where this article first appeared and in the forum attached to this site.

The first of a series of articles that covers a brief history of Elliott Wave Theory, what it is and measures, and what it can tell you about the market that is useful in price forecasting.

This article/series is intended to show you how experienced traders can use more sophisticated methods to try & analyse movements in the forex markets. If you are new or have not yet mastered my methods DO NOT get distracted or confused by this. I have been trading for over 6 years and I do not understand it fully! This will be here later for you to come back & refer to when you are ready. Remember our mentality is K.I.S.S – KEEP IT SIMPLE :)

Elliott Wave Theory was derived from the principles of psychologically-based market price action originally discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliott and published in his seminal book “The Wave Principle” in 1938. In its present formulation, Elliott’s original ideas have since been expanded upon by notable present-day Elliotticians like Robert Prechter, A. J. Frost and Dave Allman whose primary focus is on forecasting stock market prices.

Nevertheless, any market with largely-unregulated prices and in which human psychology plays a key part in the determination of prices tends to demonstrate the fundamental principles of Elliott Wave Theory. For example, this phenomenon is widely observed to be true of the forex, futures and commodities markets that each provides interesting strategic trading opportunities for personal traders managing their own accounts.

As applied to the price action observed in financial markets, Elliott Wave Theory involves performing a meticulous and ongoing analysis of how mass psychology alternates between periods of bullishness and bearishness. According to the Theory, the resulting price patterns created by fluctuating public opinion tend to take on the appearance of waves of varying smaller degrees that are repeated in larger cycles. Furthermore, these waves demonstrate specific common behaviors, follow certain rules and have probabilistically-quantifiable price objectives. All of this information can be very useful when one is attempting to forecast longer-term market price action.

Specifically, Elliott Wave Theory proposes a series of five waves to any upward or downward market move or trend that are customarily numbered as Waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Three of them, Waves 1, 3 and 5, are movements or “impulses” in the direction of the trend. These waves are interrupted by two counter-trend movements or “corrections” which are know as Waves 2 and 4. Once Wave 5 of the cycle is completed, the overall move then corrects itself in three waves that are known as the A, B and C waves and which collectively result in the price action having moved against the preceding trend.  Refer to Diagram 1 for a pictorial example of a theoretical Elliott Wave pattern along with the traditional numbering of waves in the classic eight-wave sequence.

Elliott Wave Theory
Elliott Wave Theory

Diagram 1: A Classic Elliott Wave Pattern


Basically, by correctly assessing the location of the market in terms of the overall wave cycle that is presently unfolding, a technical analyst well-versed in using the techniques of Elliott Wave Theory can probabilistically foresee what the market is likely to do in the near and even in the relatively distant future. Not only would such an analyst be able to forecast the direction of the upcoming price move with reasonable accuracy, but in many cases, they would also be able to determine the likely extent of that move, as well as whether the market might dip before rising, for example.

While this might make Elliott Wave Theory sound like the Holy Grail of technical price forecasting, using it in practice has some considerable shortcomings. For example, the key to obtaining accurate market price and timing predictions using the Theory is to have been skillful enough to have grasped the correct location of the market in the prevailing market cycle.

Furthermore, since Elliotticians first observe price action and then “count” waves in order to determine where the market might be trading in its larger cycle, this is often referred to as their “wave count.” Unfortunately, while the true wave count of a market might be quite clearly apparent in hindsight when reviewing historical price data, it often can only be guessed at in the present moment. As a result, this wave count uncertainty presents the most critical problem facing the technical analyst wishing to use Elliott Wave Theory to forecast price movements.

Nevertheless, if one is willing to trade not on certainties, but instead on reasonable probabilistic assessments of what the most likely wave count scenario is, then performing an Elliott Wave analysis can be a useful trading tool for performing market forecasts on a variety of time frames and can give a trader useful information that they could not otherwise hope to attain from any other analytic techniques. Many people are also not even aware that they are already using an aspect of Elliott Wave analysis when they use Fibonacci retracement levels to determine likely correction targets.

The forthcoming series on Elliott Wave Theory will go into greater depth about the basic elements involved in an Elliott Wave analysis. It will also cover the psychological aspects that characterize markets depending on what wave of the larger cycle they are in, how impulses and corrections are analyzed, why and how Fibonacci numbers are used in Elliott Wave analysis, and how this unique type of technical analysis can be used to help you forecast markets prices and obtain profitable trading opportunities.

This article first appeared in the low cost forex mentor pro site that I run. Here we have lots of mini videos to teach you how to trade forex (beginners through to intermediate level) as well as articles, tips & support. I also post analysis EVERY EVENING for the day ahead. What I am looking to trade. Where & why. To find out more click on the banner below:

 Page 3 of 3 « 1  2  3 
Partly powered by CleverPlugins.com