Copy of this mornings pre london open email analysis

I decided to release the analysis (still free) before the london open, ie in “real time” by email only. If you would like to receive a copy of my “day ahead forex analysis”, then simply fill in the e-mail box top left. If you want to check out later in the day whether i got it right or not, then i will post on here later in the day. Good luck to you all

O.K lets get something straight, the last few days have been amazing. 545 pips in just 2 days  is unbelievable, but if you’ve followed the analysis as i posted it then you know its true. This level of success is not normal, especially in the current markets. Please do not go out and order that yacht just yet !

Copy of email

morning all 7.15 am here now. just before london open. time for a breather. the last few days have been crazily successful, but if i (we) start getting carried away then the danger is we get over confident and blow the lot – i and many others have done that before.

possible best move of the day could be the chf. look at report below

what i am trying to impress upon you in the lessons on the main site is that we only need to earn 15 pips a day to turn $1.000 into a million over 2 years. see the compound interest article if you have not already. This is VERY important. http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/compound-forex-profits.html. the mindset we need to achieve is that we can get rich slowly. if we start to think we can do it in a few months believe me, it will all go badly wrong.

Good news and bad news. i made 27 pips overnight on the 3rd part of my euro/gbp short (details posted yesterdays results). Bad news is that i am out of what i thought was a longer term move. Still +27 pips before breakfast, i will settle for that !

I normally trade off a 4 hour set up. the last few weeks it has not worked so well due to the market trends. As a result i have been trading simple break outs & bounces off asian overnight ranges. I put a horizontal line at the top and one at the bottom line & then see how price reacts in that area, and look for ema/psych level/fib clues as to where it is going next.

today i have NO 4 hour signals. i have triangle patterns forming on all the majors though on 1 hour/4 hour charts which normally suggest break outs as price nears the point of the triangle.

gbp/$ there is a lot of gbp news out this morning. it may be best to wait for that. to be honest i have no clear idea of where price is going at the moment. BUT on the daily chart yesterdays candle was green. usually gbp moves on daily are min 3 candles red or 3 up – very complicated but it seems to work !! however there is a 5/8 cross down (quickest emas to react) at 1.4700 area & 34/55 cross up at 1.4570 so this could be the range. it is in a tightish overnight range of 75 pips (average daily move 250/last 5 days 225) so there is room for an explosive break out. a http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/chartpts.html. simple tactic is to wait for bounces or confirmed break outs of over night range

euro$. 56 pip asian range. last 5 days average move 150/200+ longer term. look for confirmed break outs. ie break out then a pullback to psych/fibs or emas for entry. on the daily all the emas are pointing down and price is below so trend is down.

chf/$ this could be the big mover of the day. HOWEVER it is prone to fake outs. i usually use it to confirm moves on the euro in the opposite direction. its in a tight 45 pip asian range (average last 5 days 124/longer term 175+). yesterday it only did 85 pips. if it goes it could pop 100+ pips very quickly. it is also in a flag/pendant range on the 1 hour chart and is near the tip of a triangle NOW. keep your eye on this one. on the daily the emas are all pointing up as is the trend.

$/yen. i dont normally trade & wont today. it is bouncing between 200ema on 4 hour & daily.

aud again tight over night range. Nothing clear on longer charts. Only thing i can look for is break of range, but not one of my favourite pairs when things are ranging.

Euro/gbp only 30 pip asian range. VERY tight. again look for confirmed break outs. gbp news could make this one pop very quickly. safer to trade than gbp/$ on news

good luck,

marc

yesterdays euro . 55ema clearly in control

Diagram above shows how price rejected each time it hit/came close to the 55 ema. You could have shorted here each time for a low risk trade (stop say 10/15 pips other side of ema). Great risk/reward ratio.

Today. I have posted on twitter at 7am bst (1 hour ago), the following;

4 hour buy signals on euro, cable, jpy & aud & sell signal on chf. BUT they are all pulling back at the moment & are still within the overnight asian ranges. Thus i now go to the 15 minute charts for signs that the pullback has reached its bottom point before turning back.

This signal has been 94% successful so far this year, but has become a little wobbly the last few weeks. At the time of writing this it looks on the 15 minutes as though it could be spectacularly wrong ! However it is a longer term move and these pullbacks will look like nothing later in the day.

What i will look for is the possible longs to pullback to their overnight lows. At this point i will look for clues for a bounce back up. enter 50% of normal stake at this point, with small stop just below overnight low & any other fibs or emas that might be there. If the price looks to be confiming a break back up i will enter the 2nd part of the trade. A conservative trader might wait for a confirmed break of the overnight high of the range.

Aud – This could be the lowest risk of the possible long trades. Price is just above the 200ema on the 4 hour chart at 0.6940 area (also yesterdays low is near here). If it pullbacks near here look to long. If  it breaks the 200 on 4 hour look for reasons to short.

chf -  i dont really like the chf. It seems to stop at every ema along the way & good solid movement in 1 direction is rare, BUT it is stuck in a range. Yesterday it moved 90 pips (average is 140). and it is moving sideways.

Usually when this happens with any pair, periods of inactivity are followed by explosive movements. I use the chf as an indicator to trade the euro (it goes in the opposite direction 76% of the time.

gbp – there is a lot of news out this morning (every day i check out what news events are programmed for the day; http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php.

if i am not in the gbp an hour before important news then i will leave it alone until after.

euro: on the 4 hour it looked good for a long an hour ago, now not so sure ! as i say the bottom of the overnight range 1.2895 & yestedays low 1.2886 are crucial. confirmed break below = short or could bounce back up for the long.

If in doubt, best advice is STAY OUT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER:

Morning all. Still a few techie things to sort, but getting there. I started late this morning. I don’t always trade fridays, but a few interesting possibilities will keep me interested for the next few hours.

I have no 4 hour signal (93% successful 2009 on twitter- marc12001) on any pairs this morning (7am gmt). Aud has most potential for me today. See below;

Cable is in a VERY interesting area. 4 hour & daily looks like fall due today. Very important area now. Psychological level 1.4800. 1 hour 200 ema & 4 hour 55 all in this area.  If breaks here could see BIG move down today. Alternatively this could be the area for another bounce back up to the 1.500 area. Keep looking for clues. Has done 65% of average daily move already which is a negative though.

Euro/$ & Chf/$ have already moved 65% of average days range today, so limited potential for break out/further moves, other than pullbacks, so I am leaving alone today.

Aud on the other hand had very little asian moves so far (only 60 pips at time of writing) . Average day move is 150, so room to go.

I have set alarms top & bottom of the asian range. will be looking for break outs with a pullback for entry. Slight bias on the 4 hour/daily chart is up. Needs to break 0.7225.  If it does my target would be 0.7280.

Alternatively,  aud also near top of 15 min trend line 7215 area. If reverses then potential decent move down. 1st target if reverses is 0.7185 area. then if can break  asian low 40+ pips below.

TRADE: I shorted aud at 0.7218. Its a bit speculative BUT only need very small stop loss of 12 pips. Risk/reward ratio therefore is very good. Risking 12 pips for a possible 60+ gain. If it doesn’t work, will revert to plan A & go long !

Jpy is range bound.  Only 50 pip asian move. Have set alarms above & below asian range. looking for break out with a pullback. Must wait for pullback. Danger of fake out BUT when a pair has been range bound (especially near major psychological  level of 100.00) then a break could be explosive.

Good luck with your trading. I have lots to do today so only trade 1st few hours but alarms set. marc

I am often asked what it is that I am looking for when I look at the forex daily charts. The answer is really simple. The same as every other chart ! Trends, support & resistance, break outs, fib bounces, emas etc etc.

The great thing is that anyone can trade At any time of the day off daily charts. You have so much time to decide what you are going to do.

The main difference is that when you place a trade based on the daily charts you normally have to place a much bigger stop loss. However, occasionally, like today’s example that is not the case.It only needed a 50 pip stop loss for a possible 150+ pip gain = excellent risk/reward.

I posted the following on twitter this morning;

http://twitter.com/marc12001;

“euro/gbp VERY interesting on daily. last 5 days moved sideways along 61.8 fib if breaks now cud pop to 88 area (150 pips below)” about 9 hours ago from Tweetvisor.

What first alerted me to the trade was that I had a strong trend line, going back to November 2008 which had previously acted as support.

On three previous occasions I had longed the pair (bought), including last week. There was also a 61.8% fib retracement in the same area. On the shorter time frame charts there were lots of other clues to support the decision to sell.

Because the euro/gbp average daily move is less than half of the other majors I double my stake & look for smaller gains on this pair. I took 50% of my profit at 48 pips. Moved my stop to entry + 10 and left the rest to see if I can catch a potential bigger move.

clear break of strong support trend line on euro gbp daily chart

For a more detailed in depth explanation of this trade, have a look at the article that I just posted on my main site in the forex free training section;

http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/forex-trade-example-from-daily-chart.html