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Here follows the analysis/advice & video update for the evening of 24th November for 25th November where I predicted todays break out moves on the Euro, Chf & $/yen amongst others
We have enjoyed a lot of very simple trades from bounces off areas of support & resistance and trend lines in the last few weeks. The longer this goes on the more likely that these areas are to break. Lots of bollinger bands have opened on daily charts which suggest that quite a few pairs are ready to “pop” and break out of these ranges.
Therefore do not just blindly keep taking bounce trades. Look for the lowest risk and only take one at a time is my best advice. If there are break outs we need to see a candle close and a pullback before entering. Some could have a limited break out and reverse again, particularly the Chf, which would then have an impact on the Euro/$ due to correlation.
Reasonably good day again today. Simple M1 trades on the Euro/$ & the Chf. Both broke out of the asian range & the 200ema before pulling back. Textbook move. Remember to only take one of these at a time due to correlation. 99% of the time I take the Euro/$ it has a bigger daily range/therefore bigger potential move and it is more reliable when it sets off. Look for M1 again tomorrow.
Lmt: Hopefully you took my advice and didn’t take last nights Daily Aud, Aud/Yen & Gbp/Yen for the reasons I explained in yesterdays blog update. I also said that the 4 hour has been more reliable of late and we had winners on 4 pairs. Hopefully you all have realised by now that the The Euro/$ 4 hour in the New York session was a definate no due to its close proximity to the 1.500 area and especially the one on Alpari at 19.00 hours gmt as that coincided with the FOMC news. If not go back and study the LMT videos in the forex strategies section.
I can see no daily signals lining up on any of the platforms tonight. Again look for 4 hour signals where there is enough room to recent highs & lows.
Once the dust settles after the FOMC news, tomorrow is fairly light until the New York session where volatility can be anticipated. In the London session there is only 1 large piece of Gbp news and a little lower grade Euro. As ever check your calendars.
Gbp/$: Came down & bounced off 1.6500 again. This was another simple bounce trade that we have been taking for the last few weeks. You also had an opportunity to short at 1.6600 again. Eventually these will break, but for now keep looking for clues. Todays was easy. It was another bounce off the 4 hour 200ema as well. Remember we are always looking for multiple reasons why price might reverse in an area. Here you had the psychological level of 1.6500. Previous strong support & resistance. Daily 34 ema. 4 hour 200ema. Weekly 5 ema. If these areas break, look for pullbacks.
The Euro Gbp: Tiny moves last few days. Usually this is followed by a break out. To short I need the daily candle to break and close below 0.8970 (all the emas on daily & 4 hour charts). To go long I need a confirmed break above 0.9060. Remember if in doubt stay out I said yesterday that price looked to be bullish and that it could pullback to the upper daily bollinger band. It did. This bollinger band is confusing because on some of the platforms it has been open for the last few days. My best advice is follow the signs on the platform that you use. If you try to read too many platforms you will never make a trade. However wait & see what the bollingers do at the daily candle close tonight. If the bands open then price is likely to keep going up.
Euro/$: We have had loads of simple bounces off 1.500 in the last few weeks. Do not rush into doing this again. This is starting to look very bullish on the daily & weekly charts . Price is still bouncing between 1.4800 & 1.500. If it pullsback down to 1.4800 again I would be very interested but look for lots of clues before shorting here again. Eventually these areas will break. If they do, look for a break out/ candle close and then a pullback.
Chf: Coming down to bottom support again at 1.0030/50 area. Look at daily bollinger band at tonights candle close. At the moment the daily & weeklys bollingers have opened which suggest that this time it could break through. We are in a long term down trend and ALL emas are pointing down as well. If breaks out could be limited $1 to 1 swiss franc is the biggest psychological area around. Could break through and then simply bounce back off here as it did last time in March & May 2008. Less risky trades elsewhere. Remember if this does happen it should mean that the Euro/$ has an equally limited break out potential upwards.
$/Yen: Very similar to the Chf. Could have a very limited break out and then simply bounce back upwards off 88.00
Aud: Came back down and gave a buy at 0.9150 again TWICE today on the 4 hour chart. Also 200ema on 4 hour. Still bouncing between here and & horizontal resistance at 0.9300. Said yesterday possible head & shoulders pattern developing on the daily. Price needs to come up to 0.9300 again and then fall down to confirm this. It doesn’t look as bullish as the Euro so could be the safer short.
Nzd: Another pair that gave a couple of entry possibilities at the bounce off 0.7200 area on the 4 hour
Euro/Cad: Looking for possible bounce again off upper trend line in 1.5900 area.
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Have a good day tomorrow, regards, marc
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Filed under: Example Forex Trades
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Interesting article and nice blog you have too!
Interesting article and nice blog you have too!