Forex Analysis for the week ahead- For those of you who are new, please note that my forex analysis is intended to show where & why I am looking for trade possibilities in the day/week ahead. That way you can put our methods in to practise. We are NOT a tipping service. The aim of this site is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
If you are relatively new to forex and or this site then do not risk real money until you know what you are doing. Every broker has a free metatrader platform that you can practise on. Those who come into forex and are trading within days & weeks are members of the 90%+ group who fail. Take your time & study, practise, study.
| M1 | Has been getting much better in recent weeks, look around London open. |
| Lmt | Gave a few reasonable trades on 4 hour charts towards the back end of last week, I would leave the daily for now BUT the 4 hour is more sensitive and could start to give us some trades again. |
| Gbp/$ | Still Only looking to short. Same as all last week. Price has failed to break & close above the 78.6% fib so is still in a down trend for me.Macd divergence on 4 hour & daily charts as well. The danger is that price will break back down & then bounce back up again, so I am not expecting 100’s of pip moves in 1 direction unless there is a major news announcement.Decide which time frame you are trading. Then consider the following:
As I show in the video, if you are trading from weekly charts then the main entry area of interest for the week will be 1.5550, if price was to spike up there. We have 50% daily fib, weekly 55ema, trend line & daily bollingers all in the same area; ie multiple reasons. That’s it, place the order, walk away. See you next week! If you are willing to trade counter trend, then consider a half stake long at 1.4775. Daily charts: I will be looking for reasons to short at 1.5200 again. This is 78.6% fib on the daily + major resistance last few weeks & psych level. Counter trend traders consider a long, half stake @ 1.4930. I do not recommend counter trend trades, but its your decision There is also a triangle break out on the 4 hour charts which broke on Friday. A pullback to 1.5100 would be the norm for this type of move. Big Gbp news 09.30 London time tomorrow so be careful. Its gdp news which has moved the market the last few times. |
| Euro/$ | I still only want to short: Technically this has broken 78.6 and therefore is a reversal, but I still have my doubts. Also the most accurate forex experts say that this pair will hit parity I Euro = $1) by the start of 2011 so I am not sure. Will look at M1 in the morning.If you think price has reversed then areas to consider longs are 1.2600 (not for me). If price closes below there tomorrow then look for reasons (ie pullbacks) to short. |
| Chf/$ | Broke & Closed below 78.6 so reversal BUT as above the Swiss national Bank could throw the technical stuff out of the window, Will be looking for clues to short at 1.0700 & definitely 1.0800 as per my video analysis |
| $/Yen | Looking for shorts. 90.00 is the overall weekly area. 50% daily fib, support & resistance, emas & psychological number. Anyone mention multiple reasons J
There are lots of clues that price may be due to rise back up. Daily macd divergence, stochastics rolling up & price broke and closed above the 4 hour 55ema which was significant resistance/support Thursday & Friday. Counter trend/swing traders may wish to consider a long at 88.30 area with a stop at 87.90. This is not a TIP & I will not take it BUT that’s what swing traders look for. |
| Aud/$ | Only interested in a short. BUT as I mentioned above, the weekends Chinese news could see this race up for a while at least. My only suggestion is watch fib/resistance areas for a sign of a bounce back down. This being forex do not discount the possibility that price may go down! In that case counter trend traders will consider 0.8500 to be major support so goo area to enter. |
| Cad | Weekly engulfing candle & break below major support/resistance at 1.0400 suggests it is going down again, but this has been all over the place in recent weeks.
The cad is not my favourite pair. Years ago I coined the phrase “cadsanonymous” for those of us who had been bitten repeatedly by the wild swings on this pair Technically a pullback to 1.0400 would be a good area to short. I will look at London open and decide then. |
| Euro/Cad | Leaving alone |
| Euro/Yen | Only looking to short. I show in the video how on the monthly chart this long term down trend is confirmed, but as you know price never goes in a straight line so there will be pull backs along the way.
Until the Euro becomes clearer I am leaving this one too. |
| Aud/jpy | Still looking to short. Wait for all the news to come out. If the news is Aud positive could race back up. If races up then weekly move would be to look for short around 82.30. If trickles up then 80.00 will be very ineresting to short. Daily 50% fib, lots of daily & weekly emas, psych level etc ie multiple reasons. |
| Euro/Gbp
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Only looking to short. Last week was looking to short at 0.8420 which is still main area, previous support & resistance & daily 50% fib and emas ie lots of reasons, as explained in the video BUT watch the bollingers at market open. They opened on Friday on the daily chart, if they stay open then this could move higher. If so then next area to consider shorting is 0.8500.Have a great week, Regards, Marc |
| Best of Luck, Marc |
The above is a copy of some of my detailed analysis that is available to members of the forex mentor program I run with Dean Saunders. I do this every trading day, BEFORE the event. To find out more click on the following link;
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