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Current Forex Markets

Things were going so well. We had an extremely profitable December & January was doing ok until the middle of last week. Wednesday/Thursday I started to post that I was becoming very wary on all pairs  & that even though the Gbp/$ had broken & cleared the very important 1.6300 I was not looking to trade it. What should really have scared you away from longing this pair was the daily bollinger band that slammed shut at Thursday nights candle close. Bollinger bands have been extremely significant in the last few months & do give big clues on the longer time-frames as to where price is likely to stop or proceed.

As I said last week, sometimes it is more important to know when NOT to trade. Tomorrow is a public holiday in the USA, Martin Luther King Day. As a result a huge portion of the worlds traders will be absent & we are likely to see illiquid, thin markets & as a result I am not intending to trade.This is now the start of my 7th Year trading forex. On two previous occasions the markets have been like this in January & then settled down after Martin Luther day. I have no idea why, BUT hopefully that will be the catalyst we need to get back to some kind of normality.

Like many market commentators I expected January’s poor NFP news to kick-start things. As yet that has not really materialised, but there is a lot of news Tuesday onwards and there are continuing horror stories of problems in the Euro zone with some of the newer member states and their poor performance & allegedly equally poor book-keeping practices.  I have a friend who is quite high up in a major hedge fund and they have been predicting a substantial fall on the euro once this all comes out.  If he is right then the big question as ever is WHEN!

Monday is very light for news, but the rest of the week there is plenty, especially for the Gbp, so that may give us the direction we need. I will save my detailed analysis for tomorrows update, but below I give you a few things that you may decide to look for:

LMT: I can see probable daily signals on multiple platforms for the Euro/$ & the Gbp/$. For The reasons mentioned above and because of all the emas I mention in the video, I personally will not take them. On Friday I cautioned against the Euro/$ & Euro/Cad signals on forex.com because of their close proximity to previous strong support levels. Both did hit their 1st targets, so it is obviously your call. If you do try this method, only take 1 trade at a time

M1: Beware of fake-outs at the London open. Thin markets can go one of two ways: a) price races off without looking back or more usually, b) fake out. Whats it going to be tomorrow? I have no idea. If you do trade it, only 1 pair and be very careful (consider reducing your stake).

Euro/Gbp:Finally broke and closed below the daily 200ema for the 1st time since August 2009. Woo Hoo, here we go, obvious break out pull back short. Nope! Price spiked but failed to close below horizontal support at 0.8835. Even if it does break below here could be very limited moves due to further old support/resistance levels.

There is no point my going through each pair telling you why I will not be trading tomorrow. Today’s video goes through the different pairs with a quick over view & as I said I will post in-depth analysis for The rest of the week on Monday on my low cost mentoring site. If you would like to receive  detailed daily analysis, tips & advice then check out my low cost, daily forex mentoring service:

If you are in the USA then enjoy your holiday. Apologies for the sound quality on the video, I have a stinking cold,  to view full screen/larger screen click on the You Tube icon right hand corner. PLEASE leave a rating and or comment on You Tube,  catch you later, marc

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