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Forex & LMT Analysis For Week Ahead

by Marc on July 25, 2009

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Had you followed my advice last week you would have caught 300 pips from the cad alone using this method. In last weeks post entitled “forex Trade Examples” I gave you detailed analysis as to how to trade  break outs on the forex 4 hour charts.

In the “Forex Trade Tip” analysis of last week I told you to look out for such a move on the cad. The result if you took my advice was 300 pips on the cad and 130+ on the euro cad.

This is what I had to say about the Cad – “There is a doji candle on the daily chart which signifies indecision. Price has now entered a tight range, which is normal after a big move such as last weeks. If breaks out upwards, could go to 1.1400 area or down to 1.0800″. Price broke out and down and hit a low of 1.0792 !

cad_break_out

There was also an LMT signal on the wednesday morning that would have got you in for a 200 pip move.

In the current markets lots of pairs are at trend lines as well as horizontal support and resistance lines.

I would strongly advise you not to take trades that are very near to these areas, as they will quite possibly bounce off. The more conservative way to trade is wait for confirmed breaks of the 4 hour charts.

A confirmed break is when a candle breaks & closes through a line.

The euro cad also gave us an identical trade, this time for a 130 pip gain. This was also signalled by the LMT (low maintenance forex trading) software that we use.

euro_cad_break_and_lmt signal The red arrow shows where I entered the trade at a confirmed break of the support line.

The vertical red line is where the lmt gave a sell signal.

Had you simply entered the lmt trade you would have made 130 pips.

In thin markets that is an amazing achievement from a simple piece of software.

The Forex week ahead

You need to look very carefully at support and resistance areas this week. Lots of pairs are struggling at recent highs and lows. Take a look for example at the following euro/$ chart

Price has failed to break recent highs all week

Price has failed to break recent highs all week

As you can see, price has failed to break (and close) through the horizontal resistance line all week. Be very careful going long here, even if you get an LMT signal.

Even if it does break up here, the recent May high was only 1.4300 area.

Price is now being squeezed between the horizontal resistance line and the diagonal support line, to form a triangle pattern. The nearer price gets to the the point of the triangle, the more explosive the break out is in either direction.  If price broke down here the 1st target would be 1.4000 area again. If it breaks that then 1.3850 will be next.

Due to family commitments (getting ready for our holidays) I haven’t time to analyse all the pairs for you today. Look closely at the euro example. There are similar set ups on many of the pairs. If you are trading the LMT stick to the advanced rules and if you are combining the 2 methods look for breaks of support and resistance. good luck with your trading.

If you would like to trade forex successfully with us here on the blog, we have more than 1500 registered traders, and 16.500+ on twitter following both my advice, and sharing advice with each other.

The following is concerning the LMT forex formula. More than 500 of us here trade this system. It is the BEST, SIMPLEST,CHEAPEST forex trading system I have found in almost 6 years of trading forex. Click on the coloured banner below to find out more, regards, marc walton

These are the results (as supplied by Alex) for june 23rd 2009 to 21st july. For summer time thin markets these results are simply astounding.

Daily H4
Broker total won lost win/total total won lost win/total
GMT1 8 3 5 38% 91 73 18 80%
GMT2 7 4 3 57% 95 74 21 78%
GMT3 7 4 3 57% 85 69 16 81%
total/avg 22 11 11 51% 271 216 55 80%



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    • veronica cordoba
      Hi Gally, I was reading what you wrote about the signals today, I didn't get so many signals and most of them were in an opposing direction to the Daily trends. Latelly lmt hasn't given me any good results any clue?
    • alx
      Hi Veronica,
      please take about 20 seconds of your precious time to read my post just above yours (#16). It answers your question in 100% I believe.
      This 20 seconds may save a lot of your money.
      ALX
    • Gally
      Another good Monday. 15 H4 signals. 12 winners. Arguably one wouldn't have taken the EURCAD losers as they were in an opposing direction to the EURCAD D1 signals. Still, even with those, a good day.

      Still not trading though!
    • Kevin Joyce
      Hi Gally,

      Had my FXDD on all day and only got 4x 4H signals all in opposite direction to the day for Aug10. 2 gained for the period and one lost. The day trade €/$ was a loss.
      How come I am not getting the 12 signals...any ideas?
    • alx
      Hi Kevin,
      we get 3x more signals by running 3 different timezones broker terminals.
      But for the time being the winning ratio is erratic. LMT is a trending system. Markets are not trending or not trending the way it could work. EURUSD is confined in 400 pips wide up channel on daily. The price action is choppy and full of long local consolidations.
      Better stay away till the end of August I believe.
      ALX
    • alx
      Oops, missed that: "Still not trading though!"
      Frankly - very good stance for the time being.
      I took just SOME trades today only because I had signals from other systems and detailed trading plan.
      It's very rare I can create trading plan looking like a timetable: what, when and how to buy/sell during the day.
      ALX
    • alx
      That's right Gally :-)
      I hope you could get them all. And hopefully you let the GBPUSD and USDCAD run beyond the 2nd target :-)
      You know, when I see GBPUSD going down about London open, I somehow know it's not going to stop soon. Strange I don't have the feeling when going up...
      ALX
    • Gally
      I took a break too.

      I am now kicking myself royally for it. Well over 1000 points today. 600 alone on the H4 JPY crosses this afternoon.

      Great.
    • alx
      Not only you Gally.
      But who would have known? Last week H4 wining ratio dropped bellow 60%. With RR 1:1/2 it could not be traded. Daily signals were about 50% for more than two weeks...
      On another hand I have a feeling I saw it couple of times: big moves on Friday US news resulting in explosion on Monday. One of my big days recently was Monday... I have to check this out.
      ALX
    • Gally
      Yup, that's why we need to look at days and times and success ratios. Monday continues to be very strongly consistent. And my gut feeling is Monday pre-midday is up near 100%. Friday is pretty well always bad.
    • alx
      My LMT trade history is very short: just 6 "LMT" Mondays.
      Buy you're damn right!
      None of them was bellow 67% winning rate. And this is still the worst, outstanding case of just one broker. If I average the 6 weeks and the three brokers results, it makes 92% on H4.
      Note: I don't want to make any figures on D1 signals - not enough data and too erratic behavior to make any stats.

      I'm very curious if the pattern repeats next Monday, after NFP Friday...
      As I said, I reviewed my other trade history and found more "happy" Mondays. Oops, did I say I just found the Holly Grail? Not at all - I also found some very, very bad Mondays...
      ALX
    • kevin
      We will live to fight another day!

      kevin
    • kevin
      I am taking an LMT break too...

      I need help choosing a non NFA micro broker that I can use EA's on. I have read reviews and it's very confusing. I still have a couple of robots that work well, and I want to continue using them, but I am getting to the point that I may refund them, and just stick with LMT signals on an MT4 demo and place them on another platform. I am planning on closing my IBFX this week cause of all the NFA crap.

      I have an FXPRO account, but no micros, so cannot compound, I am also looking at Forex.com and FXCM (UK) but also getting mixed reviews, I saw a post for a Canadian ECN here, but also mixed reviews. I don't have enough for a real ECN like DukasCopy so any advice would be appreciated!

      You can email me if you want, any advice and recommendations are welcome!

      Kevin
    • alx
      Hi All,
      even the best fighter has weak days. So has the LMT. It doesn't perform too good in this sideways market. Amazing it still can trigger profitable trades. But the average profit and winning rate is lower than just two weeks ago.
      If you really need to trade, check every signal carefully.
      But my BIG advice is: TAKE VACATIONS TIME!
      Go enjoy it and come back in September. Put your big plans aside - I guess additional 32 days will not ruin them. Bad trading will certainly do.
      Don't spend your time and money on poor result game.

      I'm going to get some sun&wind and polish my tools so they're better prepared for the next season - it's good to have some break as programming and trading just don't play together.

      Take care.
      ALX
    • alx
      Taking trades becomes more and more difficult and results erratic. You need to qualify trade signal - while you do it, it runs out. Or pulls back so much it almost invalidates the trade. Time slots get shorter, price movement flatter. You get 15 pips here and lose 30 there. Trades after London fix freeze in limbo. Better stay away.
    • BlueMental
      I enjoy looking at the charts for patterns. They are fractal in nature, and if you observe a tic chart or a 4 hour chart, they follow the same tendancies.
      Something that is quite nice (this example is the H4 EurUSD) throw in an SMA2000 and an SMA2400. Also put in a ZigZag (standard, not gann) but set it to Depth 600; Deviation 1200; Backstep 1200. If you zoom out to max, and you look at the ZigZag, you will notice that they cross over the SMA's. That is their tendancy. We are currently at a point where the ZigZag Line is touching the SMA2400. So too is the current price. Now since the ZigZag Lines tend to cross over the SMA, it is highly likely that the price is going long. (long term). Also by observing the SMA's, there is a crossover from the SMA 2000 below the SMA2400. but as you will notice, the curve is gradual. And usually the 'fast' moving SMA crosess a few times (shortest 2 usually 3 but sometimes 4) before the slow moving SMA's trend changes.

      Then go one step further (it is a bit difficult and takes some maneuvering) and draw a channel on the highs and lows of the ZigZags. They are neatly conforming to the pattern. So it is also highly likely that they will follow the tendancy to continue doing so.

      It seems like the price has hit a resistance (previous highs etc.) but in essense it is still on a steady course heading for 1.7125 sometime around the 30th of December.

      So from this it seems likely that the long term price trend is going upwards. Meaning that 'the trend is your friend' be biased towards going long rather than going short.

      This also gives a good indication of the HUGE problems currently facing the USD.

      Some see problems. Their natural tendancy (based on fear) would be to go short since the USD is strong and must win....... So they will go short and burn their fingers.

      Some food for thought.
      Lance
    • Gally
      Basically, almost every dollar pair is trading in a nice tight range and looking for a breakout. Might be a fun week.
    • alx
      "Quiet" week ahead. Just two big bangs: Wednesday and Friday.
      Be aware of quiet weeks - at low volumes anything can trigger sweeps across the ranges. Even the Asia session can be a big surprise...
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