Hi, hope you are all enjoying your weekend. I had quite a few emails Friday from newer members who were having difficulties because price was simply piling straight through support & resistance. Things you have to bear in mind here; NOTHING is guaranteed in forex. What we are aiming for is probability, certainty is simply not possible.
The other thing to take on board is the fact that all week I was warning how difficult things were. On Thursday I explained I had gone into ultra cautious mode & Friday I said my best advice was to leave the markets alone until things settled down. If you are in-experienced and you continue to trade despite the resident “expert” 
telling you not to, then do not be confused/disappointed when things go wrong.
If I told you that a certain Casino had croupiers that were definitely cheating, would you still go with your hard earned cash? Of course not! (If you answered yes to the previous question you have a serious gambling habit Our number one priority as forex traders is to NOT LOSE. When things are not in our favour, learn to walk away.
Since the end of December we have had some brilliant results just from placing trades from weekly analysis. At the moment I am waiting for the markets to form a trend/stop all of this bouncing back & forth. Therefore I am looking to trade only from daily & 4 hour charts until things become clearer.
When markets are not behaving in a way that we feel comfortable with, then spend your time studying the re-vamped forex strategies area. Watch the videos/study the analysis so that when things do go back to normal you will be able to capitalise.
Big news Week
Lots of news this week on most pairs so make sure to check those calendars before placing trades.
Flag Patterns
In the last few months we have had some major wins following “flag pattern” break outs (if you are new there is video explaining flag patterns in the forex strategies page) I can see a few possibilities brewing for this method. I may have doubts from a logical perspective, BUT technically they look correct. See the video for details.
If you do trade in the early part of this week, then I would strongly suggest that you reduce your stakes & follow the money management rules EXACTLY – these can be found in the M1 & M2 introduction section of the forex strategies page.
| M1 | Worked on a few pairs on Friday, including the Gbp/$ & Euro/$ lets hope this back to its winning ways |
| Lmt
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Quite a few possible signals tomorrow on alpari uk platform. A lot of the candles are too big and therefore “no trades” Personally I am leaving this method alone until we have some definite trends. |
| Gbp/$ | Possible 700 pip flag pattern break out is a definite possibility. Price is currently at a major area right now. 1.500 is an obvious psychological area, is previous support & resistance and a trend line. What we need to know here is price going to bounce back up here all the way back up to the top of the channel or break down. I would say that the odds are 50/50 which is not what we want to hear! I would prefer a confirmed break below 1.5000 followed by a pullback. If price starts to go back up then I would be very interested in shorting at 1.5140 area. This is previous support and resistance as well as a daily trend line. The problem is though that last week price simply continued through these kinds of areas, so be careful. If gets higher than this then later in the week I will definitely be looking to short at the upper trend line anywhere between 1.5310/40. |
| Euro/$ | Fridays candle was a break of a flag pattern/trend line which suggest a 900 pip move down. Very difficult to believe but standard procedure here is to look for a pullback with a view to a short. The flag bottom line will be at 1.3590 tomorrow which is also near the psych level AND the monthly 55ema which as held the recent move, in other words multiple reasons why a short looks attractive here. If price gets down to 1.3450 the brave amongst you may consider a counter trend /half stake long here. |
| Chf/$ | If the Euro does go down then the Chf will go up (97% correlation this year), but could be a limited move. Will struggle at 1.0650 (weekly 55ema & previous support & resistance), 1.0675 (weekly trend line) & finally 1.0700 which was major previous support, hence all areas to consider a move back down.
If price gets back down to 1.0510 area then I will be very interested to long here. Previous support & weekly 50% fib of recent moves so HUGE support area as seen on Wednesday of last week. |
| $/Yen | Ignoring most yens until we have some kind of confirmed break out. This one is in a triangle pattern so look for break out and pullback to 0.9000 or upwards break of 0.9080 and then pullback either on 4 hour or daily. Overall still waiting to short at 0.9150 area from monthly downwards trend line & daily 200ema |
| Aud/$ | Continues to bounce between 0.9100 & 0.9200. Too small a range for me. |
| Be cautious. The priority is to not lose money. If you have doubts then reduce your stake per trade & follow the money management rules to the letter. Remember you do not HAVE to trade. If in doubt. STAY OUT | |
| Best of Luck, Marc |
The above is just a small example of the analysis I provide every trading day to members of my low cost forex mentor program. The site includes 40+ mini videos to teach complete beginners through to intermediate level forex traders, how to become successful. We hava a 5* rating on forexpeacearmy for quality & value. To find out more click on the following link:
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