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Free Forex Analysis 18th December 2009

by Marc on December 18, 2009

Hi, Erol has kindly posted his video for today.

Had you followed by Daily updates this week you could have made 300+ pips from just 1 trade, on 1 pair, with only a 20 pip stop loss, from an order placed on Monday from my week-ends analysis. That is a 1 to 17 risk reward ratio!!

There were other trades like the Euro/Gbp that would have gained you 150 pips from Mondays analysis. I Gave you entries, stops and told you where I thought price was heading. My New Years resolution is to work smarter, not harder. I have said before that my goal is to only trade off daily & even weekly charts. If I want to have a bit of fun then I can have the occasional day like yesterday and trade through various parts of the day. If you wish to share this profitable journey, then dont forget to come along for the ride :)

I Seem to spend my life telling you to be careful :) My Advice for today? Be VERY careful. Today is Triple witching hour (ghostly sound effects) WOOOHOOO

Triple witching hour is the last hour of the stock market trading session (3:00-4:00 P.M., New York Time) on the third Friday of every March, June, September, and December. Those days are the expiration of three kinds of securities:

  • Stock market index futures;
  • Stock market index options;
  • Stock options.

The simultaneous expirations generally increases the trading volume of options, futures and the underlying stocks, and occasionally increases volatility of prices of related securities. Also a lot of traders will take this opportunity to take profits off the table from long term trades. So could be technically difficult tomorrow. Certainly I would suggest you either do not trade the New York session ( I do not on a Friday) or if you do be ultra, ultra cautious.

Euro/$, Euro/Gbp: Both hit their targets for me, so I may leave alone tomorrow. If the 200ema daily breaks and closes below then you could look for 50%/61.8% daily pullbacks, around 1.4420/1.4464. However it might just keep going. if it doesn’t close below I think there will be better opportunities elsewhere. I mentioned in an article a few weeks ago that there were rumours here in the Euro-zone that there was a lot of bad news still to come from some of the less well regulated, newer members of the EU. Greece and some of the Eastern states are the main focus of the rumours, but even Austria had to bail out one of its Banks this week, so do I think the euro will continue to fall? Yes, but I am not sure about tomorrow.

Chf: As explained in both videos the Chf is marching on towards the 200ema. Watch the Euro for clues. If the Euro rejects at its daily 200ema the Chf is likely to pullback too. Look for pullbacks to 1.0450 area, just above 50% fib and 1.0429/61.8%.

Gbp: Weird (timing) news releases at 00.01 am gmt near candle closes & even bigger news at 09.30am gmt. Any of these could cause this pair to rocket. We have been waiting like the cold hearted forex sharks that we are for this to break and close below the 200ema for almost 2 weeks now. Finally today our patience paid off. Price broke and looks to close below the 200ema and the daily trend line. Standard operating procedure, we are looking for pullbacks. 1.6200 area is 50% fib of todays candle & psych level. 61.8% fib, 200ema and trend line at 1.6240 would be better, but not sure if it will get that far.

The above is part of todays analysis sent to subscribers to my low cost forex mentoring service. If you would like daily updates and the chance to earn 100′s of low risk pips a week, then take a look here: http://www.forexmentorpro.com/

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