Free Forex Analysis for 19th November 2009
Hi Erol has kindly posted his technical & fundamental video analysis below. The following is some of the analysis I posted to the forexmentorpro members last night which hopefully kept them out of a losing LMT daily trade on the Euro/Yen last night and got them in to a winning Euro/Gbp break out trade at the London open. We have been waiting all week for pullbacks on the Gbp/$ & Euro/$ and price is in these areas now as I post this update (08.30 GMT).
News announcement sent the Gbp/$ silly this morning as I warned last night. Lots of news again tomorrow on numerous pairs and speeches by the top guysi at the Banks of Australia, Europe & Canada amongst others, so make sure you check your news calendars before entering trades.
Look for M1 again tomorrow but I am avoiding Aud & $/Yen for this method at the moment for reasons I explain in tonights video. Also don’t look to use it on any other pairs that are ranging eg Gbp/Yen. I also explain how I decide which pairs to concentrate on for this method.
Lmt daily signal on all platforms for Euro/yen tonight. Check out my analysis below. Also look for possible bounces off double tops & bottoms again. The Chf is only 70 pips off recent lows at 1.0030 area, so keep your eye on it.
Gbp/$: Same as last nights post I am still looking for a pullback. I have a new daily trend line intersecting with 61.8% 4 hour fib at 1.6650 area, with also the previous down trend line here. Very strong area. Prior to that 50% fib retracement would be at 1.6700 area. Price is currently at 1.6720 as I write this so look for clues that price may bounce back up. If it breaks 1.6650 trend line and closes below we are looking at a reversal.
Euro/$: Too near the 1.500 area for me to consider going long so still hoping for a pullback: 50% fib on daily at 1.4836 and even more important 61.8% & daily trend line at 1.4800. So anywhere here you need to look for clues on smaller time frames that price is going to bounce back up. This is a crucial area though. If price breaks and closes below the trend line tomorrow, we could be on for a move back down into the 1.4200 area. If it does expect ema resistance at 1.4725 where the daily 55ema is lurking. This has not broken since April.
Euro/Gbp: I longed this in the London session from a break of Asian range. There was further opportunity in the New York session from another simple bounce back up off the 15 minute 200ema and the 1 hour 55ema that was rolling up. I have since closed those trades and shorted at 0.8945 which was a bounce off the 4 hour 55ema. Emas do seem to play a big part with this pair. If you missed the entry a pullback tomorrow to daily 55ema again at 0.8870/daily 61.8% fib is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Aud: Firmly rejected 0.9350 area last week. Currently bouncing along the 55ema on the 4 hour chart for last few days.. Not enough room for me if it bounces back up here, but if breaks could pullback to daily 50% fib is at 0.9155 which was previous resistance and what would be even better is the 61.8% intersects with daily trend line at 0.9100 psych area AND 200ema on 4 hour is there too.
Chf: Bouncing between daily trend line again and bottom trend line/previous double bottom at 1.0030. Previously struggled at 1.0250 area which is also 78.6% daily fib. So look for bounce back there or up off the double bottom.
Euro/Cad: Bollinger now closing on daily. Another one of those annoying pairs that is up one day and down the next. Triangle breakout possibilty but now back at daily 200ema again.
Yens: Still waiting for some definitive movement. We need the $/yen to make a move to kick start the rest.
Euro/yen: DAily LMT signal tonight on all platforms. A few weeks ago I suggested a red (don’t trade), amber (possible), green (Yes) for the lmt. I would give this a weak amber light. On a positive note price bounced off the 61.8% fib on the daily chart and if it does start to move up it has a lot of room above to previous high of 138.00. On a negative note it is back at a whole cluster of emas on longer term charts that are all flat and just below the psych level of 134.00. Same as many yen pairs it does not seem able to make its mind up and is at the point of a triangle break out. If the current daily candle closes above 134.00 tonight I will take if not I will not.
Gbp/Yen. Same as yesterday. Still waiting for signs of triangle break out.
Cad: Still bouncing around, I am leaving for reasons mentioned before. Cad news tomorrow & Bank of Canada Chairman speaks.
Regards, Marc