Hi, I am back, cough almost gone. Thanks to all the well-wishers/thanks for all the remedies, ancient & modern. Also thanks to Dean for filling in for me at short notice. Simple solution was I just needed a rest and some sun. We live 500 metres from the beach & have an almost perfect climate & yet I can’t remember the last time I sat on it & chilled. I tell you not to trade if you do not feel 100% – once again I am great at giving advice, need to follow it more often
I didn’t post yesterday for the simple reason that half of the worlds traders were missing today and therefore it was likely that very little would happen AND things could change completely tomorrow when the big guys get back. There is the further fact that the NFP news was still released on Friday even though most of the world had a day off, therefore after todays candle close will be the 1st time the pro traders/banks will have had the opportunity to trade the statistics & todays much better than expected USA existing home sales.
Fridays & Todays inertia could be followed by some explosive moves tomorrow. My best advice if you can only/choose to trade from the daily/weekly charts is wait & see what happens tomorrow. Often NFP gives us direction for the following month & lots of pairs are at extremes at the moment. One more day will not kill us, but could seriously damage your accounts if you dive in.
If the asian session is quiet (I have my doubts, but we live in hope) then the M1 could be the best possible method tomorrow after such little movement today, so if you can trade around the London open then make sure to drop by.
Another Big News Week
News has been a big factor in moves for many of the pairs so far this year & there is lots of MAJOR news this week on lots of pairs. Starting after todays candle close there is the 1st interest rate decision of the week, this one from the Bank Of Australia. The BoA has been raising rates, but there is uncertainty over tomorrows announcement. Do NOT touch this pair until after the rate & the statement have been delivered and digested.
Best Advice for tomorrow: Is Wait & See.
Personally I am not in a rush to trade & would strongly recommend any inexperienced traders to simply sit & watch. We need to hang on to the coat tails of the big guys, so let them fight it amongst themselves & show us the way to go. The following figures are only “areas of interest” for your perusal. If you do trade, only place one trade at a time and consider reducing your stake.
|M1||Started to liven up and a few decent wins last week. We had a good 3 months run with this pre Christmas, lets hope this is the start we have been waiting for. If the asian session is quiet we could have some opportunities here|
|Lmt||Waiting for trends. Leave until we see some.|
|Gbp/$||Broke daily 78.6% fib so could be on its way back up. Normally I would be very keen to long at 1.5232 as explained in the video. Possible counter trend short around 1.5380|
|Euro/$||Still technically in a down trend for me. 1.3580/1.3600 is strong previous support/resistance. Monthly 55ema. Psych level. 61.8% fib so loads of reasons to normally want to short there BUT……|
|Chf/$||Starting to look bullish but in a recent daily down trend. Had lots of success shorting around 1.0700 earlier in the year. Will be of interest again tomorrow and then possible longs at 1.0500|
|$/Yen||I Sneeked a decent 200 pip move here last week (wife forbade me to trade but I just set it & forgot it J. I explained on the weekly how it looked to be breaking upwards which it has now done. Now need to find a pullback to get in again. 93.00 of great interest for number of reasons as explained in the video|
|Aud/$||There is a LOT of news on this pair this week, including interest rate & statement @ 05.30 BST (GMT +1)be extra careful.We are back at the upper trend line at 0.9200 which held again last week. 0.9100 has been previous strong support so price could bounce between these two areas again.|
|Cad/$||Leaving. Need a decent pullback.|
|Euro/Cad||Price broke 1.3600 so usually would be looking to short if price pulls back there. However could be limited move down as 1.3500 is previous major support/treble bottom going back to March 2006 so the brave may consider a reduced stake/counter trend long around there.|
|Euro/Yen||Possible long opportunity at 125.00 but I am a bit wary with this one.|
|Aud/jpy||Finally broke out of its narrow range. Need a pullback. If Aud news is negative and price pulls all way back to 84/84.20 later in the week, will be interested to long|
|Euro/Gbp||Normally one of my favourite pairs but all over the place at the moment. Watching & waiting|
||Best of Luck, Marc|
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