Hi, hopefully my advice that I believed the Euro was going to break out upwards, kept you out of losing trades on Friday. The last few weeks I am convinced traders have been waiting/expecting bad USA news which would allow the Euro to race back up to the 1.400 area at least. However the $US keeps coming out either mixed or slightly positive hence the indecison.
There is talk of a “bail out” being announced for Greece in the coming days. That could be the catalyst we need to make this happen. However this will probably be a non scheduled announcement (if it materialises) and therefore this could be very volatile in the next few days.
News has been VERY important in the last few weeks. We have had days of little or no movement followed by over reactions for even minor news. There is important news for all pairs this week so again watch your calendars carefully before placing trades.
The next few weeks could also be more volatile than normal due to fact that USA/Canadian clocks are out of sync with the rest of the world. USA & Canadian news releases will be an hour earlier/nearer to European announcements for the next 2 weeks & therefore the markets could be more volatile. Normally traders have plenty of time to digest the London session releases before New York opens. Its just something to be aware of.
We had some very good 200+ pip trades from last week-ends weekly update. This week will be more difficult especially for the Euro/$ & Gbp/$ as we have the age old problem of “when is a pullback a reversal”? Fridays moves could be the start of a major move back up, which technically the Euro particularly looks likely BUT this being forex price could just as easily fall the other way. So with these pairs especially I am going to wait & see what develops after the market opens.
| Gbp/$ | Lots of clues that this is going to go up BUT the question is how far. I see potential resistance at 1.5260. 1.5300 & 1.5400! Also if we are going to “long” this pair we need a pull back. 1.5100 would be an obvious area to consider. Watch weekly bollingers. If they close then would further suggest move up. There is Gbp house price news not long after market open 00.01 GMT. Watch that for clues. House proces are VERY importnat to the british economy.
If none of the above materialises I will be looking for potential shorts around 1.5430 and longs around 1.4800 |
| Euro/$ | Price finally broke 1.3735 for the 1st time in 3 weeks. Is it a reversal or just a pull back? Your guess is as good as mine  Technically this does look as though it is going to go up but it failed to close above 1.3800 and in the last 5 weeks this area has been strong resistance too. Could be limited moves unless we have positive euro/poor $ news. 1st area to consider a long would be a pullback to 1.3735 = standard break out pullback OR 1.3675 a triangle break out. As I said earlier this is very difficult to predict so best advice is see what develops tomorrow. |
| Chf/$ | Exact opposite as to be expected. If the Euro does turn up then this will go down. Broke major support at 1.0660 area so consider pullbacks to here. |
| Euro/Gbp | Waited most of last week for price to bounce back off weekly bollinger which was around 0.9150. This bollinger band is crucial at market open. If it opens then suggests that price will continue upwards. If so a pullback to 0.9000 would be tempting. If bollinger stays pointing steeply down then it will probably be around 0.9130 tomorrow so look for clues to short there |
| Cad | Technically this is a break out followed by a pullback. Price broke & closed below major support that has held for over a year at 1.0220 area. Every pro trader will have 1: 1 parity in mind for this pair so its a matter of trying to catch an entry 1.0200/1.2020 is the logical place but there are no fibs or emas to give it more strength (50% of last weeks move is at 1.0238 and are other previous support lines). All of these areas need to be watched closely |
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