Please find my forex analysis for the week ahead. I have lots of members of my mentor program who are very interested in trading from weekly & monthly charts (even less work for them, more for me In the members area I have posted a video that deals specifically with this type of trading, but I also refer to it in the video below. My methods using fibs, emas, support & resistance etc can be used on any time frame.

You simply need to decide which is your preferred one and concentrate your efforts there. The way I analyse my charts is to start with the monthly and then work my work down through the daily & 4 hour. Making a note of important emas/fib lines etc. The longer the time frame the more solid/difficult these areas are to break through.

What is great is that I get emails virtually everyday from people who are finally beginning to stop losing & actually make money & lots of emails in the last few months from people who have made 100′s of pips for the first time. It took me 3 years before I had consistent 100+ pip weeks.

Some of you want/can only trade off daily charts and my daily posts are all from analysis I do on these same charts. What you need to do is to learn how to interpret my observations and apply them yourselves. The other week I told you how the flag pattern on the Euro/$ suggested that the pair would fall 750+ pips it has currently moved 500 of them! Last week a 50% fib pullback on the Gbp/$ worked to perfection for nearly 300 pips. The best way to do this until you are confident enough is to do so on a demo account, but following strict money management rules (these are in the forex strategies page in the M1 section).

What I suspect will happen after all these major moves is that price will pullback & even bounce back up, if only for a couple of days. Stong moves are usually followed by a pause as traders reflect on where to go next.

This week I have split my analysis in two. This first video shows you how to use my techniques on the longer time-frames, including the monthly. It also shows my analysis for a possible exit strategy for one of our members, Jozsef. Jozsef shorted the Euro on the 19th January at 1.4294 from my daily analysis and is currently 400+ pips up on this trade.

Analysis for the Week Ahead 1st February 2010

There is a Huge amount of news this week: Interest rate decisions from Britain (including a likely split vote on their quantitative easing program), Europe and Australia, job figures from Canada, New Zealand and the US – the almighty Non-Farm Payrolls. So as ever it is important that you check your daily calendars before entering trades. For example NEVER enter trades when Interest rate news is due in a few hours and avoid other major news an hour or more before the release. You miss most of the spikes and silliness this way.  Often price will race away at news, only to return to the same place a few hours earlier.

We had some major trend line breaks last week. I avoided most of them because of the unpredictable news & Bernankes re-instatement & the Davos meeting statements. Now all of that has gone we will find out whether these were just fake outs or break outs. For now I will treat them as break outs. Therefore the standard break out pull backs will be what I am looking for. Always bear in mind if I am looking for a 150 pip pullback that means you have the opportunity to catch moves in both directions!

Bollinger Bands: Have been immensely important in the last few months on the weekly as well as daily charts and I have been placing much more emphasis on them. Remember, if they open on these larger time-frames it usually signifies a move through & if they slam shut a reversal, or at least hesitation.

M1 method: We have had a lot of gaps at market open in the last few months which can kill off the M1 on a Monday. Take a look at the market open to see if it is worth getting up early/staying up late for this method.

LMT: Lot of movement last week which means we should get some daily signals this week. Break outs are usually followed by pullbacks so fingers crossed that the LMT will get going this week.

Euro/$: Price finally broke & closed below the huge 1.4000 area. The only thing that concerns me is the unusual news situation of last week has not caused a “fake out” My best advice is just take one trade at a time on Monday whilst we find out. As I showed in the 1st video we had a very large weekly candle. The previous week price  pulled back EXACTLY to the 50% fib. If it happens again that would give us an entry around 1.400 which ties in nicely with the M2 break out pullback strategy.Also keep in mind the analysis from the other week where the “flag pattern” break out suggests this will eventually fall to 1.350 area!! Those trading smaller time frames a 50% pullback of Fridays move is 1.3925 & 61.8 at 1.3940

If price simply keeps going down you can consider a possible bounce back up at a number of points as explained in the weekly video above ie 1.3800 is weekly 50% fib as well as being psychological level. Below that there is the daily 200ema and previous support & resistance at 1.3750. Final line in the sand is 1.3600 which is monthly 55ema and psych level. All of these areas would be counter trend so I will only risk 50% of my usual stake. One clue here that price will pull back up, at least in the short term? Look at the weekly bollingers at market open. There is a good possibility that price will be outside the bands

Chf: Broke & closed above the weekly trend line that goes back to early 2009. It then stopped & bounced off the weekly 55ema. A weekly 50% pullback would be at 1.0500 which is also the psych level. However a day chart trader would be looking for a pullback to the daily 200ema at 1.0535 & the 61.8% fib is in the same area on the daily. This is beginning to look bullish (5/8 cross forming on the MONTHLY). If this goes up the Euro will go down and may yet hit the 1.3500 area as predicted by the flag pattern from a few weeks ago.

Gbp/$: Last week price pulled back exactly to the WEEKLY 50% fib/55ema. This trade alone, taken off a WEEKLY chart would have gained you almost 300 pips.  There is a monthly 5/8 cross with stochastics pointing down. This looks very bearish, but we need an entry. Again a weekly 50% pullback would take us to 1.6100/1.6125 which is stong previous support (therefore now resistance)? Also this same area gave us a decent trade last week. A daily 50% pullback is at 1.6078 so that is not a mile off either.

Euro/Gbp: Looks bearish on all longer time frames. 5/8 cross on monthly & broke and closed below the weekly 55ema.  Is likely to be outside the bollinger bands on weekly at market open. As you know when price goes outside the bands it always returns back in, we just don’t know when! daily and price spiked but then closed above the weekly 55ema. Weekly 50% pullback is at 0.8700, but 0.8650 will be tricky to break as it was twice major support last week

$/Yen: Stochastics and 5/8  cross on weekly chart suggests this has more to fall. Watch lower Bollingers at market open on daily chart (also wide open on monthly-watch those too).  Back at 90.25 again which was previous support and resistance. I will leave alone unless it gets back up to the weekly trend line at 93.00 or down to the support @ 87.00

Cad: Broke and closed above weekly trend line. Look for pullback here to 1.0600 area.

Euro/Yen: Broke multiple bottom at 127.00 and currently outside daily bollingers which again suggests a pullback if it is going to carry on down. Weekly 50% pullack would be at 126.60 & 61.8% at 127.00. If trading daily charts then 50% is at 125.75 & 61.8 at 126.00

Gbp/Yen. Not my favourite pair, but same strategy as Euro/yen

Aud: Gold broke its 61.8% fib last week and bounced of 78.6% so still technically in an uptrend. Aud had a very big weekly candle last week. These are usually followed by a pullback. Daily 50% fib is at 0.8897 & 61.8 at 0.8912. Weekly back at 0.8963. Monthly 78.6% is at 0.8945 so there are loads of reasons for price to react here. Tricky one. Waiting until tuesday.

Nzd: Weekly bollinger opened down like a trap door. Daily currently wide open too. Watch daily at market open. If closes will signal a move back up & price is sat on psychological level of 0.7000. So could be a bounce trade back up at market open or wait for possible short at 50% daily fib which is at 0.7050. Weekly traders fib the weekly candle.

Aud/Jpy: Very interesting. Sat on a weekly trend line & long term 50% fib% 34 & 55ema & DAILY 200ema. ie lots of reasons for price to bounce back up here. To consider shorting I need a daily candle to break and close below 0.7900.

The above is an example of the daily analysis I post in my low cost forex mentor site, along with dozens of video tutorials to teach you how to trade forex. At the moment we are still at the ridiclously low price of $29.95 per month. This will be going to $49.95 in the very near future. Those who join now lock in the price for the length of their membership. Click on the banner to find out more:

To view the Video full screen, click on the You Tube icon, bottom corner of the screen. Please leave a rating or comment on you tube, best of luck, marc

Have a great week, regards, marc

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