Free Forex Analysis & Trading Tips for 16 December 2009
Hi David has kindly posted his analysis for current markets. The written analysis below is a copy of that which what I posted to my forex mentor subscribers last night (21.00 gmt) to give you an idea of the daily updates they receive. Parts of this write up refers to the members daily video update, not the one below, hopefully I don’t confuse you too much!!
Hi, 5 out of 6 wins on Monday but mixed day today. I had a loss on the Aud from last nights analysis. I avoided the loss on the Euro/$ as it was correlated with the Aud & it was Euro news, however this news was so minor it shouldn’t, & normally doesn’t , have any effect, but thats indicative of how news is affecting the markets at the moment. Tomorrow is FOMC news. This is potentially as volatile as NFP Friday at the moment, so be very careful and I don’t recommend placing trades within a few hours of it. What may well happen is a tight sideways range during London session, followed by an explosive move at the FOMC release. There is other major & minor news tomorrow, so check those calendars carefully.
I did have a very good Euro/Gbp short from last nights analysis as well as the Cad. The significance? The losers were counter trend and the winners with the trend. I told you if you took the 1st 2 to go 1/2 stake because of this. For the next few days I am going to concentrate more on trading with the trend.
LMT: I can see two possible daily signals for tonight’s candle close. The Aud & the Nzd. Remember don’t take both as they are heavily correlated (going the same way 90%+ of the time at the moment). Of the two I prefer the Nzd as I explain in tonight’s video. I also re-explain which trades to avoid on the LMT 4 hour charts at the moment.
M1 trades: We did get some moves today as well as fake outs. Your call, but only take one at a time if you decide to try this method. Cautious traders will continue to wait for clearer trends.
Bollinger bands: Keep watching them, big clues here. I show you in the video how you can use Bollingers as targets as well as keeping you out of trades.
Bounce trades: If pairs pull all the way back to recent highs & lows (unlikely) then possible, but not as likely as recent days. Hopefully the $ reversal is continuing and we can ride the trend.
Euro/$: Broke and closed below 1.4625 again today which is also a weekly fib. Look for pullbacks to 1.4580/1.4600 for short entries. As I pointed out last week it does appear to be moving relentlessly to the 200ema on the daily, so we need pullbacks for entries.
Chf: Exact opposite of the Euro as per correlation. Look for pullbacks to 1.0370/ 1.0350 to go long.
Gbp/$: Again failed to close below the daily 200ema & bounced back up off daily trend line. On daily it needs to break & close below the 200ema and the trend line. Still not for me.
Euro/Gbp: Closes below 0.9000 & gave great entry today. Look for pull-backs to 0.8965/8973/80 areas as explained in the video.
Aud: Still to break daily 55ema . If price pulls-back to 0.9200 or even better 0.9300 look for bounces back down again.
Nzd: Going to get LMT sell signal at candle close, BUT doesn’t look as though it will close below 0.7200. Better bet than Aud though as it looks as though it will close below the 55ema. Best bet is still a pullback to 7300 or 0.7380 again explained in the video.
Cad: Did as I said last night. Same again for tonight: Bouncing between 1.04750 last week & 1.06650. Trend line will be a little lower at 1.06640 tomorrow. Candle currently closing below daily 55ema. Gives a short more confidence if stays that way tonight. If bollingers stay as they are or close down would give more confidence. If they open up on the daily, be careful as price more likely to break out and the emas ARE starting to look bullish on the daily.
Gbp/Yen: I Said last night that I was looking to short around 146.70/147.00 upper daily trend line/psych. It is still an area of interest BUT watch the Gbp/$ closely tomorrow. If it still can not break below the trend line and daily 200ema, then this pair could carry on up. I have explained before that this is what is known as a “cross pair.” This “cross” pairs’ price is determined by multiplying the price of the Gbp/$ & the $/yen, therefore look carefully at those. The $/yen is currently struggling to break the daily 55ema and has not broken the 78.6 daily fib at 90.50 area so technically still in a down trend, but tricky. This pair also has a big spread and can be very volatile. Not recommended for new forex traders.
Good Luck with your trading, regards, marc
The above is an example of the daily advice I post on the low cost ($29.95 a month)!!! forex mentoring site I run, if you would like to know more, click here:
http://www.forexmentorpro.com/
The following video was kindly supplied by David Strack a New York based trader. His analysis differs a little from mine, so you get 2 different perspectives, regards, marc