Welcome all, We have had a few tricky weeks and I can honestly say I am sick of it so lets get back to work and start to make some pips!
Gaps
We have had some huge gaps at the market open in the last few weeks & I suspect that this week will be no exception so make sure you wait until the markets have opened and let the dust settle. This week-end we have had the G20 conference concluding as well as an IMF meeting & the slight matter of the world trying to digest Greeces’ request for up to $60 Billion of loans. I have had some success trading gaps in the last few weeks BUT i personally find it far too stressful & will wait until the London open tomorrow.
News
There are only 2 scheduled news announcements for tomorrow, which is extremely unusual but the Greek crisis is likely to rumble on for the foreseeable future so there is the dangerous prospect of unscheduled comments causing spikes and great volatility on ANY Euro pairs in the coming weeks. To make matters worse Mr Trichet makes speeches virtually every day of next week so be especially careful around these. Any unexpected comment could see 50/60 pip spikes in a heart beat. My best advice is only be in one Euro trade at a time. Do not open trades just before Trichet speeches & move stops tight before he speaks if you are already in a trade.
| M1 | Asian session could be busy again in which case this method will not work. The good thing is it only takes 2 minutes to check this method. If nothing is possible I will go back to bed J |
| Lmt
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There are a few possible daily signals for tomorrow on Alpari platform but because of the lack of clear trends I do not have any confidence so will leave alone. The LMT is a trend following system. We have little or no trends hence it will not work until they return. Not for me at the moment |
| Gbp/$ | Possible 600 pip flag pattern break out on this pair as I show in the video. The bottom trend line is around 1.5300 so look break out followed by a pullback for a further move down. This is a fairly strong trend line and psych level so consider possible bounces back up from there (counter trend 50% stake) On the upside price has failed to close above 1.5380 which is a weekly resistance area. Price may just bounce between these 2 areas. If price gets up to 1.5560 later in the week I will be very keen to short. Fairly light news week for this pair so hopefully we will have a technical week. There is a general election coming up in 10 days time so there is some uncertainty. |
| Euro/$ | I had an order to short at 1.3700 last week which I cancelled on the Wednesday. Price has since fallen 500 pips. On the weekly charts this looks so obvious now. This is still in a clear down trend for me. As usual I am looking for a pullback for entry. 1.3500 seems the logical point. We have 61.8% fib of daily move, psych level & it was previous support & resistance, so lots of reasons. If it gets all the way to 1.3580 (seems unlikely now, but you never know:) then I will definitely look to short it |
| Chf/$ | I said last week that if it goes up I need price to break and close above 1.0700. This happened on Thursday so now we need a pullback. 1.0700 is an obvious area to consider 1.0660 would be even better as it is the weekly 55ema which was resistance for the previous 5 weeks & therefore should now become support. |
| $/Yen | Has been all over the place recently and could simply bounce around again BUT price has broken and cleared the weekly 55ema & psych level of 93.00 and is riding the 5ema on the daily & the weekly bollingers opened last week, so lots of clues it may be about to break out upwards. Also the 34/55emas have crossed the 200ema on the daily chart for the 1st time since September 2008 so lots of clues that this is on its way up. Watch daily & weekly Bollinger bands at market open. If stay open gives even more confidence.
The flip side of this pair is that it has been up and down like a yo-yo in recent weeks. If it does break back down to 92.00 area I would be definitely looking to long.
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