Hi, last week I pointed out that were lots of potential triangle & flag pattern break outs. Lots of these trades won 100′s of pips & we have a similar situation developing again. A few of these are not as straight forward as I would like, as explained in the video & the write up.
We had a lot of pullbacks last week. We now are in that transient state “is this a pullback or a reversal. For me I will continue to only look for trades with the trend (my main loser last week was a counter trend trade). I will especially only be looking to trade triangle break outs with the long term trend. the good thing about these pullbacks is that there could be a lot of LMT daily signals this week.
News
There is a tremendous amount of news this week building to my favourite (NOT 
NFP Friday so it will be a shorter week than normal & therefore a few decent moves will suffice for me. Make sure to check your calendars before entering trades. If BIG news is due then be especially cautious: wait for the news to come out and the dust to settle before entering trades and move stops closer or close open trades. This should help you avoid the vicious spikes that news can cause.
Re my analysis
Those of you who have been with me for a while know the drill but just like to point out to newer members: We are NOT a tipping service. The aim of this site is to give you the tools to be able to trade forex for yourselves. I show you in advance trades I am looking to take tomorrow and why but the idea is that you will learn to do this for yourselves. You will not master my methods in weeks but there was a comment on the blog on Friday from Frieda who has been with us since pre Christmas;
“I made 420 pips in May… so proud of myself and grateful to the teacher. Only 15 trades, 12 wins 3 losses, (really just about half that many trades, closing out half after 20 some pips…counts as two trades)
Restraint really pays off. Not being greedy, you end up with more at the end, not trading when marc says not to… save the foolish compulsive gambling for the demo account (lost 1000 dollars on a euro/gbp move last week that everyone else made money on), and every time I listen to all the videos again, I feel it becomes easier to read the charts. It is true that “getting it” comes and goes… next month I may be in the fog again, but, it does become easier.” Frieda
| M1 | Worked well on a few pairs last week, Check again tomorrow pre London open. |
| Lmt
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Woke up a bit last week on the daily & 4 hour charts. These big moves could herald a lot of daily signals later in the week although I can’t see any on Alpari for this evening, Check your own platforms at candle close. |
| Gbp/$ | I am only looking to short. Potential daily flag pattern break out, 4 hour triangle & or possible bounce off upper resistance again at 1.4600 so decide which method you prefer.
If I short at 1.4600 I will put my stop above 1.4650 which is 50% daily fib as well as upper trend line & recent support & resistance. If price goes straight through 1.4600 then 1.4650 would be the next option for the reasons just given. I said all last week that my main area that I want to short is 1.4775 which will be more of a weekly move. Still looking at that which looks very tempting!
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| Euro/$ | I only want to short. Failed to break monthly 200ema again. May pullback to 1.2500 which is big psychological level and previous support & resistance.
If you look to take the 4 hour triangle break out I would wait until price closes below the monthly 200ema at 1.2250 area as price could clear the triangle and simply bounce back up off here, as explained in the video. Long term move I am waiting for is 1.2600 which may happen later in the week. |
| Chf/$ | Only want to long. Currently in a daily triangle but I would favour a pullback to 1.1450. If we have big pullbacks tomorrow then a second area to consider a long is 1.1310 which is 50% daily fib & weekly 200ema |
| $/Yen | Unsure re trend and lots of emas in the way on multiple time frames but 92.00 would be a good area to consider a short as 61.8% fib is at 91.86 and lots of emas just above. |
| Aud/$ | Only interested in a short. There is a lot of big news in the asian session including interest rate update. Do not take trades until after the dust has settled. If price does not pullback to violently after the news then considering 0.8570 to short as its 50% daily fib & recent support & resistance. If the pullback is bigger then 0.8675 is a big area. Weekly 55ema which has rolled down & 61.8% fib just above at 0.8693 |
| Cad | Trapped between emas. Leaving tomorrow. |
| Euro/Cad | Last weeks big mover. Those who may be still in are now + 450 pips on this one. Its really mid way between daily trend lines but considering a pullback to 1.2900 for possible short |
| Euro/Yen | Possible triangle break out on 4 hour. Only looking to short. 112.50 has held/55ema on 4 hour for last few days. If that breaks look to daily fibs for clues |
| Aud/jpy | Bouncing off 78.00 now possible triangle or flag pattern break out forming on the 4 hour chart as I show in the video. Wait until after all Aud news in asian session. Only looking to short |
| Euro/Gbp | Weekly triangle break out possibility that I showed in Thursdays update worked to the pip today, for 80 pips, sods law! Only looking to short but recent low/major support is near at 0.8420 area so prefer pullback to say 0.8500 which is trend line, psych & recent support. I would look to put my stop above 0.8550
If price continues to fall without a pullback I would need a candle close below 0.8420 followed by a pullback. |
| Best of Luck, Marc |
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