Hi, welcome to this weekends free forex update. We have had a lot of success in the last few months with very technical forex trades. There is such a trade forming now on the Gbp/Yen & fundamentals could support this theory in the week ahead. Lots of positive emails re last weeks posts’ showing you how to avoid losing trades. If you didn’t have the chance to watch them yet then I strongly recommend that you do so NOW 
As I explained our 1st priority is to not lose. In the current markets that is easier said than done. Personally I have been taking fewer trades and only those with the highest potential. Last week I only made 5 trades all week. I moved stops to entry/took the 1st profit at the 1st sign of trouble and only had smallish profit targets.
Remember our weekly, basic target is 100 pips/20 pips a day. We have had plenty of weeks in 2010 where members have achieved over 500 pips, those were the great weeks that come along from time to time. When times are more difficult just go into “ultra conservative mode” & wait for better times, they are always just around the corner.
Trading with the Trend
This is easier said than done at the moment due to the uncertainty BUT over the long term trading with the trend is acknowledged to be the safest, most profitable method. Why would you wish to sell a pair when the rest of the world seem determined to buy? Forex is one of those occasions in life when you want to running with the herd.
The big banks & hedge funds are the ones who drive the markets, all we little guys want to do is hang on their coat tails and grab some of the profit for ourselves. You have no chance of forcing the markets with your $1 a pip trades when there is $2+ TRILLION changing hands everyday So do NOT try to force trades.
I mentioned last week that many pairs are currently at the limit of their current trends, so we have the eternal question of whether these moves are simply pullbacks or reversals. Pullbacks are to be expected after such major moves but you can never tell. Remember my mantra “IF IN DOUBT STAY OUT“
Despite all this uncertainty we have had some decent technical trades in the last few weeks, especially triangle break outs. There are a few of them forming at the moment and there are also a few possible Plan B trades at market open. If you missed the previous post re Plan B trades, you can find it on the forex strategies page.
News
Last week we had days with very little movement until news announcements proved to be the catalyst. Tomorrow is a fairly light news day until 17.30 London time when the ECB President, Mr Trichet is making a speech to the European parliament. This could cause massive spikes on any/all European pairs. Do not open trades near the London close & if you are already in then either move stops tight or take your profit.
| M1 | As I showed in last weeks videos how this could be the best method at the moment & certainly help you avoid bad trades. Check pre London open |
| Lmt
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There are some possible moves developing on the daily charts for later in the week. There is a probable daily signal on the Aud/Jpy at the market open. Wait for any gaps to close before considering taking, but there is room below to recent lows. |
| Gbp/$ | Still Only looking to short. Price stayed above the major resistance @ 1.4775 and the weekly candle closed above.Counter trend traders will consider a long after a pullback, not for me but 1.4775 is the area. This is previous resistance becomes support as well as a 4 hour trend line. More conservative countertrend traders will wait for a break and close above 1.4850 on the 4 hour. Trend traders will consider a short at this point but the problem is it is only 50 odd pips back down to 1.4775. If you shorted at a break, close and pullback at 1.4775 the problem is there are the 4 hour 200 & 55emas not far below. Best advice is to wait for a clear break out and look again at Mondays candle close |
| Euro/$ | I only want to short. Look at daily Bollinger at market open. If closes, suggests a move back down is more likely. Very similar 4 hour pattern to the Gbp/$. Counter trend traders will consider a long at the 4 hour trend line around 1.2350 tomorrow or a break and close above 1.2450 Trend traders will look at possible shorts at 1.2430 or more conservatively; break & close on 4 hour trend line. Personally speaking, if it gets all the way to 1.2600 will be interested, anything else and I will not |
| Chf/$ | Still looking to long but this is tricky. Counter trend traders may consider a Plan B short trade. Personally I will be looking for clues to go long at 1.0900 area & especially 1.0820 |
| $/Yen | Only looking to short. A Pullback to 91.20 would be a good place to consider a short. Counter trend traders will be waiting to long at 90.00 |
| Aud/$ | Only interested in a short. But it broke major resistance at 0.8665 on Friday & it is starting to look bullish. Not sure, so staying out of this one. Check again tomorrows candle close. |
| Cad | Only interest in a short. Possible Plan B trade or pullback to 1.0250 would be best opportunities. |
| Euro/Cad | I am only interested in shorting Leaving tomorrow. Too much support & resistance in the area. Will be looking to short if price gets back up to 1.2850/weekly trend line later in week. |
| Euro/Yen | Only looking to short. Daily triangle break out brewing. Need price to break and close below trend line and 4 hour 55ema which is currently at 111.80. Need a break & close below there on 4 hour, followed by a pullback. If it goes up at market open watch daily bollingers. If they close then a bounce back down off 114.00 would be a logical area as it is the psych level, previous support & resistance as well as 4 hour 200ema. |
| Aud/jpy | Still looking to short. 80.00/80.20 is a very big area, watch daily Bollinger if closes favours a short either at 80.00 or triangle break out.If bollinger stays open then 82.50 could be next stop from where I will definitely be looking to short as there are plenty of weekly /& daily emas there. Final option watch for possible daily triangle break out downwards. |
| Euro/Gbp
Gbp/Yen |
Only looking to short. 0.8400/8420 next strong areas. At the moment 0.8380 is strong resistance. Counter trend traders could consider bounces back up from 0.8220 area Only looking to short. Possible 1200 pip triangle break out. Want price to break through & close below bottom triangle/trend line and 4 hour 55ema and then pullback to there (around 134.20 ) |
| Best of Luck, Marc |
The above is an example of the analysis/advice that members of our low cost forex mentor program receive every trading day. There are dozens of mini educational videos to teach you how to trade forex. This is suitable for complete beginners through to intermediate level forex traders. To find out more, click on the following link:
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