Hi, as I said in my email update, I am currently spending 12+ hours a day working on an educational forex course for a major forex traders site. As a result, my trading has been very limited, and I am making much fewer trades than normal, BUT still seeing good returns due to the fact that I am only trading off the daily (and a few 4 hour) charts. Three trades this week off daily charts netted me over 500 pips with one trade still open.
Normal service will be resumed towards the end of the month. There are lots of experienced people here on the blog & in the forum who are willing and able to help. I am still giving email support, so if you can’t find the answer anywhere else, then drop me a line.
In todays video below I show you a classic set up on one of the forex pairs that COULD make somewhere in the region of 900 pips in the coming weeks.
Re the LMT. There have been some good day chart trades in the last few weeks, but much poorer with the 4 hour. Until the markets resume a trend then caution is still my best advice. I know that it is frustrating, but you can’t force the markets. Someone posted on the blog here a while ago the analogy that this change in trend was similar to an aircraft carrier doing a 360 degree turn, ie painfully slow!!
You have to wait for the favourable conditions to come to you. The markets are still waiting to decide where to go next. This is normal after a summer break. Sometimes the big boys come back and immediately set off in a new direction. Other times like now, there is major uncertainty.This phase will pass. You will look back on this period in a few months time and wonder why you were stressing yourselves out!!
The global situation is that all the major western economies are in a mess. What traders are trying to decide which ones are in a least big a mess as the others! As soon as this current indecision ends, the trends will return and we will have easier trading conditions. If you use the information from my free ebook re different trading methods, eg support & resistance and emas etc you can use this to make money with or without the lmt at the moment.
Earlier in the year I showed you how trading off more than 1 platform gave you more opportunities and possible trades. This was relevant when the markets are trending. At the moment there is little or no advantage to increasing your numbers until the trends re-establish themselves. All you are doing is swamping yourselves with poor potential trades. Take a look at todays video for another way that you can make profitable trades whilst we wait for the trends to restart. To enlarge the video click on the symbol to the left of the timer – bottom right hand corner.
Hi Marc,
Thought I would be the first to thank you for today's insight. This is my first comment by the way as I only found your site last week. Have been trawling through your previous videos etc. and I have to say it is a breath of fresh air.
I completely missed the head & shoulders on cable so thanks for pointing that out. It seems much clearer now and it certainly looks like a potentially interesting trade this week and indeed subsequent weeks.
Your analysis is very clear and concise and I am learning lots from you.
I cannot thank you enough.
Steve
Kiora Marc
Thanks again for taking the time to post your analysis – much appreciated, I like the fibs but how do you know where to stretch them out to ?
Thanks again
Viv
Best video yet in my opinion Marc, great stuff kep it up>>>:>)
Hi MArc thanks for the weekly videos I find them invaluable.
A question or a couple rather on the lastest one, you make mention of possible 900 pips -cable, but using your template (DAILY), the 200ema is not at that level but roughly at 1.6000, and the 200ema is the most difficult to break, how do you “play” this trade then. Enter a sell and exit at the 200ema, see if it is “broken” and closes below and then re-enter?
Thanks Again
Yeah, I'm waiting for the 200ema break. But then I'm not as bright as Marc!
Gally
So one question, why has GBPUSD got lots more room to move, and EURUSD/USDCHF gone too far? Both seem a long way from their emas?
Hi Marc.
YouTube video was better and easier to download than that.
Hi Gally (disqus working for you now)?. Most of the other pairs have moved so much in the last 7 days in one direction that it is normal for the markets to take a breather (ie pullback) before deciding where to go next. As there is a general lack of trend at the moment then this is quite normal. as you can see price has pulled back on nearly all the majors this morning. The problem is that if you want to trade with the last 7 days mini trend, you need to wait for price to pullback & resume the same direction. I realise it can seem a bit confusing, but the point i was making that i expected pullbacks this morning. we got them but i wouldnt have traded them. if they resume the mini trend i will be interested, marc
hi quinn. this is the problem of mixing different methods ! the gist of it is this: the head and shoulders says OVERALL it will go down (could of course be completely wrong)! the 200ema on the daily says it is at least going to pause there or bounce off. what could happen in an ideal world is that it bounces off the 200ema back up to the 50% fib of the daily, gives entry. then when it next comes down to 200ema carries on through.
if you were in the trade from earlier with split lots, the way to handle this would be to close one lot near 200ema. let balance run & then look for possible re-entry if price bounces off the 200ema.
The problem is that no-one knows where price is going next.what we are trying to do is give ourselves a better % chance of guessing! Welcome to forex!!
oh mr modesty, you make me blush. suspect you are as sharp as a knife!!
hi viv. will cover that in a later video. marc
Hi steve, thanks for the comments, glad that you are learning from all this nonsense! marc
Thanks, yes, seems to be working now. Shall sit and wait like a great waiting thing then…
Thanks Marc, will watch this pair closely
hi Miles, true BUT you tube only allows videos 10 minutes and under. i need to learn to say less or speak quicker! marc
Hi Marc
Watched for the 3rd time (I'm keen to learn!) and got the fib thing – DOH ! Easy when you get it!!
Good analysis. Viv
great video, marc — as always. thanks a lot!
one question: where would the SL be for shorting the cable on the pull back, please?
After the latest heavy pullback (now 1.6425), do you still believe in a +900 bear to emerge?
hi. thats the $1.000.000 question! at the moment price is at 50% fib of the main move on the daily (from the top of the doji candle to mondays low). mondays low was a bounce in the area of the 200ema on the daily which is strong too. there is a bullish candle on the 4 hour.ie lots of conflicting signals. best thing to do is wait and see what happens. it could still go back up to the 1.6600 area, come back down again and still be valid as a head n shoulders pattern. the thing is this is a weekly/daily move so watching it constantly would drive you nuts. the other thing is watch what happens with the euro. normally the euro/$ & the gbp/$ are moving in the same direction. at the moment they aint. if the euro pulls back would give more confidence to re short cable. at the end of the day no one can know where price is going next. its just educated guesswork trying to move the odds in our favour. marc
Hi Marc, Thank you for the answer. You are not only providing educated guessing, but educated answers as well. I like your blogstyle, and will be following you both here and on twitter. Michael
Hi Marc,
I sent a direct mail to you yesterday – now I realise this is the best place to contact you.
Thanks for H&S tip – I'm still in – I entered on the pullback and although it retraced much further than my entry point at 1.6340 I stuck with it as it was at 50% Fib retracement and as you predicted it reversed from there. In terms of getting out, I've now set my stop to BE and I'm hanging in there on the other half – looks like an Elliott Wave formation to me in which case there could be lots more downside, as long as it breaks the support at 1.6150.
Also need to be aware of U.S. home sales which are due in 10 mins….
Is this a fair analysis or am I kidding myself?
Thanks for the insights – I'm still a beginner but your blogs are really helping,
Mark
Hi mark, i did send you an email reply last night, but here is better. if you are still in this trade you should now be up approx 275 pips. re the pullback an extra 130 pips on a daily is nothing. it looks so obvious now of course. what was a help was last nights very bearish daily pin bar candle. price is now breaking 200ema on daily as i write this. for it to keep going best if daily candle closes below 200 tonight. could well pullback again then to 200 and hopefully keep falling away.
I'm still in and loving it!!!!
make sure you lock in some profit. it could pullback to the neck line, good luck
You mention Monday's LMT video on your twitter page – are you referring to the “possible 900 pip move” video, or did you record another one that I missed?
Thanks,
Mark
hi mark. its a daily video presentation that I am trialling at the moment. took 3 lmt trades last week (2 daily 1on the 4 hour) i predicted the moves on monday and showed how to set a trap for price. by wednesday they had opened. by friday night i had taken off/locked in 695 pips profit. i still have 2 trades open which are currently +230 pips – i am letting them run. all done in advance on video. will reveal all in the next few days. watch this space, marc
Hi Marc, just still looking at that H&S move… I read somewhere you said it might retrace back to the neck line, which it could well be doing at the moment. It is on target to hit the neck line where it intersects with the 61.8 fib level of the previous move down. This could be quite a strong level for resistance and a possible area for reversal around the 1.6200…do you think?
Also I think your anaylsis is great and I will be definately joining your new service with Dean!!
Thanks again
Brent
Hi Brent. I would leave it alone until after the weekend. NFP could send all pairs in any direction. It looks on the daily like a pullback but on shorter time frames might be a reversal. Just wait and see what develops is best advice, regards, marc
Hi Marc, just still looking at that H&S move… I read somewhere you said it might retrace back to the neck line, which it could well be doing at the moment. It is on target to hit the neck line where it intersects with the 61.8 fib level of the previous move down. This could be quite a strong level for resistance and a possible area for reversal around the 1.6200…do you think?
Also I think your anaylsis is great and I will be definately joining your new service with Dean!!
Thanks again
Brent
Hi Brent. I would leave it alone until after the weekend. NFP could send all pairs in any direction. It looks on the daily like a pullback but on shorter time frames might be a reversal. Just wait and see what develops is best advice, regards, marc
Ok, US$1000 for 2 that are good and 2 that have possibilities sounds a bit steep, but is not unknown. Additionally, trading with EA’s (any EA) is the same as trading manually in that money management must still be used. Lot sizes should not be set too high, FRWC recommends .01/ $1000 and this seems fair. You won’t see the dramatic wins that always get claimed but you will see an account that grows consistently over time.