Comments on: Potential 400+ Forex pips gbp Monday

By: alx

alx — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 22:53:51 +0000

And gave back EVERYTHING it did since morning! The daily Top-Bottom was over 230 pips but Open-Close ~ 60 pips.
Marc – this beast is giving me pain! I’m trying to tune up but most of the times I find myself chasing ghosts. Either not right moment, either the price run out. Break out turns into fake out, pullback into reversal… How can I handle it?

By: alx

alx — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 07:12:11 +0000

Broke down on strong move. Too late to get it – it already did 190 today. No chasing trades. Have to wait for good sell signal after pullback. Maybe today afternoon, but I guess it would be rather tomorrow morning…

By: Marc

Marc — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 05:28:20 +0000

HI alex. I have the same feeling about the gbp going down as per my analysis/lmt update posted last night. As you say the consolidation has gone on too long now. The difficulty is deciding between the longer/short term charts. On the 4 hour I have it looking like a buy may be forming NOW around 1.6300 ! Longer term looks short. Depends what happens around 1.6200 area. Have to wait and see. Marc

By: alx

alx — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:39:06 +0000

Don’t worry Rich,
you’re lucky – lock your profits
Everybody makes mistakes. Sometimes so simple like buying instead of selling. The most important is to take lessons form mistakes. Guess how I did my daily timetable? It costed me a lot of my own money and stress when I saw my winners turned to losers while I had no idea how&why…
Once I realized these the daily cycles devastating my account, it was just a matter of net search to consolidate various information in a simple table. All the information is here. All free. All you have to do is to reach for it…

By: Rich

Rich — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:34:50 +0000

marc & alx,

yeah, that’s me–making mistakes cuz it was my first H4 trade. LUCKILY, i made $55 on the deal, but it won’t happen again! The sting of failure decreases when you learn the lesson, right?
I’m loving your blog and all the posts–thank you so much!

By: alx

alx — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 18:36:37 +0000

Hmm, again I have a sell recommendation on GBPUSD from a good weekly service. Last week it didn’t work. However, there was a warning about short uptrend before move downside. Instead we had a range/triangle consolidation which looks like breaking down on 4 hrs.
I guess it’s the time, the consolidation last too long now. People are tired. They’ll finally do something. This or that way. We’ll see.
Anyway, the other system says Pound is overbought against USD for too long to hold. It means short signals seem to be more reliable than longs.

By: Gally

Gally — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 18:36:14 +0000

‘you cannot lose in longer time’ is a big claim Alex!

I know you’re looking at back-testing, but are you keeping running stats of the win/loss and %age hitting the fib-derived second target? Would be interesting. Apologies if I’ve asked this before…

By: alx

alx — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 18:19:42 +0000

Hi Aris,
Admiral Markets GMT (+1 now),
Alpari GMT+1 (+2 now),
Forex Meta GMT+2 (+3 now).
They produce signals in reverse order.
Hint: until markets work out new trends on daily, I ignore any signal generated between 17:00 GMT an 06:00 GMT next day.
On Friday I don’t take trades after 11:00 GMT and quit all open trades the latest 16:00 GMT.

ALX

By: ARIS KARATZAS

ARIS KARATZAS — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 17:57:47 +0000

alex hi,

which are the 3 platforms you use in order to receive signals?

I have installed lmt to forexmeta and alpari as Marc suggests.

Thank you in advance.

Aris

By: alx

alx — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 23:42:19 +0000

One more, very particular issue about after-weekend trading:
On Monday morning Wellington, then Sidney (2 hrs after) are the first to trade. This is mostly unnoticed as most of brokers start data feed with Japan open (~ 23:00 GMT). Usually New Zealand and Australia produce the gap Marc referred about 25-35 pips eurusd. Usually in the opposite direction to the Friday evening price action (especially if Friday favored safe haven currecnies – somehow the folks on antipodes are much more optimistic than the rest of the world ).
And usually this gap is closed by the time Nikkei opens.
Of course it’s not a rule of thumb – I stress the word “usually”.
Now, depending on your position you can play it to get better exit price: if you find profit on the first 5 min candle close on Sunday, you better take it as it is. If you find losing trade by that time, you would first reduce risk by moving the Stop Loss as close as reasonable to the current price, then wait for Japan stock market to open to get out at better price if possible. But don’t wait too long. 7 times out of 10 there is a significant reversal during the Asia session. I would not wait longer than 02:00 GMT.