Archive for 'Forex Advice'

In the current topsy turvey currency markets it is difficult to know which forex strategies are most likely to work or not.  The experienced forex trader has a number of different currency trading strategies he or she will follow. Often the best plan is to simply walk away until the markets resume a tradeable trend.

I have 3 or 4 fx strategies that I have found that enable me to continue trading through the different market phases. All markets go through cycles. January to mid march I made more than 3000 pips from my own 4 hour system. Suddenly mid to late march the markets changed and it became unreliable and then un-tradeable.

I then went back to a simple 15 minute strategy that i have had success with in the past. I really don’t like trading 15 minute charts and yet April 2009 was my best month ever in my 5 year forex career. I made over 1800 pips, many of the trades posted live on twitter. Like to know the strategy ?  Send no money now ! This forex winning system is free, on the house;

Asian Break out forex strategy

Most forex strategies revolve around support and resistance. Price either bounces off previous areas or breaks through. Fx traders are looking at these areas to see how price reacts and look for clues as to where the price is going next.

This can be on any fx chart; 5 minute through to weekly. There are numerous examples of this here on the blog, mainly referring to trades on 4 hour charts (my preferred time frame).

This strategy that I am going to show you is very simple and relies upon the asian (tokyo) session being relatively quiet (it is most of the time). The price of a pair often bounces between 2 horizontal lines, above and below price;

$/chf trapped between 2 horizontal lines during asian session

$/chf trapped between 2 horizontal lines during asian session

As you can see in the diagram above the chf has been trapped in a tight (30 pip) overnight range. The average daily move on the chf in the last few months has been 150 pips. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that at some point (London forex market open or just before is the normal time) the price of this pair is going to set off up or down for a possible 120 pips.

The London open or the hour before is usually the catalyst for this movement. What we need to lok for is a break through one of these trend lines AND A PULLBACK. Eight times out of ten, price will break through this overnight range and then pullback inside. If you dive in at the 1st sign of a break you will lose nearly every time. I have been there, believe me !

Entry is critical on this type of trade. Where you enter depends on your risk tolerance. Under normal circumstances I would take the trade from the pullback to the 34/55 exponential moving averages (the top arrow in the following diagram). If you are new to these emas, check out the free forex lessons on the main site www.forex-fxtrader.com)
The beauty of entering here is that you would only need to place your stop 15 pips away (just above the asian overnight high). Therefore you have a risk reward of 15 pips to gain a potential 120 !
Swiss France breaks out of overnight asian range

Swiss France breaks out of overnight asian range

However, the reason i used this particular example is that price throughout the night failed to break the (green) 200 ema.

I never take a break out trade that is near to the 200ema.
So on this occasion I would need to look for entry after the break of the 200ema.
Either a pullback, which is my preferred entry or a move 5 pips below the closed candle that did break the 200ema ie the 2nd arrow on the chart.
Again the risk reward is excellent. I would place my stop 20 pips away – just above the 34/55 emas with a potential gain of 100+ pips.
This particular break out moved 200+ pips in total. Unfortunately I wasn’t trading and missed it.
There are lots of other rules and variations to the above. I will update this article at a later date. however those of you who have joined the traders secret library have access to an article there that goes into much greater detail.
Go to the trading techniques page (there are over a 100 techniques on this awesome site), click on range break outs. The gentleman is a more conservative trade than I am, but he gives you much more rules and a more detailed strategy there.
The traders secret library/Surefire challenge is one of the few forex products that I recommend. This site is, in my opinion, the best forex educational site on the internet. If you haven’t  seen it before (the sales page is too “hyped” for me and nearly put me off joining, but I am glad that i did). click on the link below;

Traders Secret Library/Surefire Challenge

Hi, This is an update to the post earlier in the week advising my LMT Forex Followers not to trade until the current market turmoil settles down. My advice, nay insistance ! is continue to stay away. As you can clearly see in todays 4 hour Forex Chart of the aud ( I could have used loads of similar examples) price is shooting up and down within the same candle).

The wise trader simply walks away and lives to fight another day.

There is clearly no trend at the moment. These “spikes” are tearing through fx traders stop losses and will wipe out 1000′s of accounts of those who continue to trade through this extremely difficult (usually short) period of time.

The profits we have had with the LMT in the last month have been nothing less than spectacular. I have been trading Forex for over 5 years now and the current market conditions do not come along very often (thankfully).

The LMT is a trend following system that works great when there is a trend. We actually need this weeks big moves because when they settle down a new trend will start and we can catch it near the beginning and ride it a long way for BIG , low risk Profits.

The secret to successful forex trading is knowing when to stay out of the markets.I strongly recommend you leave them alone until this sorts itself out.

The beauty of forex trading is you can make money when the markets are going up or down, but not when they are going sideways.

In the current chaos and uncertainty let the gamblers fight it out amongst themselves. We the intelligent, shrewd traders will stroll back in and sweep up once the dust has settled. I keep telling you that we can get rich in forex, but slowly.

So what is going on and what started all this ?

Most of the the currencies that we are trading have just enjoyed 4 to 6 months of steady, trending movement. Had we been trading with the LMT since the turn of the year we would have made a lot of money by now. It will return, and very soon, don’t worry. Markets always trend longer term.

It is quiet normal after a period of sustained movement for the markets to stop for a “breather” whilst traders decide where the prices are going to go next. The same principle rules the stock market.

Added to this there has been a lot of fundamental news this last week or so. Gbp negative news for example, followed by $ negative. The market is now trying to decide whose economy is in the biggest mess ! Lots of pairs look as though they might be rolling over (think of an aircraft carrier turning around – a long and painfully slow manoeuver).

Lots of pairs are still on the verge of changing direction or resuming their current trend. Some are trending down on the 4 hour chart and up on the daily. The reason for this is that the trend is based upon the next time frame above. Therefore the daily chart is based on the weekly which takes ages to change.

Take a look at the following example of cable (gbp/$) on the 4 hour and daily charts respectively. The Gbp is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour charts. Price has hit the top trend line on a number of occasions and similarly the bottom.

cable is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour chart

cable is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour chart

The more experienced trader could try to trade even these markets by simply selling near the top of the trend with a stop just the other size of the trend line. Vice versa for a buy from the bottom line. The problem is the size of some of the spikes will just wipe out the trade. Notice the shapes of some of the candles that have rejected.

Now look at the same currency pair on the daily chart;

cable on fx daily chart is clearly in an uptrend

cable on fx daily chart is clearly in an uptrend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
What is extremely interesting to me is where price is now. The arrow is pointing to where the 4 hour and the daily trend lines meet. This area is critical. If price starts to go back up from here we could be at the bottom of  a major move upwards for 100′s of pips (possibly a 1000 to the top trend line).

The other option is that if price was to break & close below here we could be looking at a major change of direction. Either way there are a lots of pips to come. Don’t be hasty.Spend the next few days reading and learning as much
as you can. I will let you know when i think its safe to get back in.

This weekend I will provide you with detailed analysis of all the pairs. Where they are now and where I calculate they are going to go next.

To all our success, marc

If you would like to know more about the LMT Forex Formula Click the link Below. Those who join the LMT (low maintenace forex trading system) from this site receive regular free updates, support and advice

Last week I received over 40 LMT Forex Signals including 12 off the daily charts. I personally took 12 trades, all of which were winners. Some only hit the 1st target and pulled back and took out the 2nd lot at entry, but as I have explained often, I have found this to be the best way to trade the LMT profitably.

Update: Sorry missed it there is a 4 signal on aud when market opens later in about 5 hours time on forex meta

I open 2 trades (divide your stake in half). I close the 1st trade at the 1st target for a profit & then move the stop on the 2nd lot to entry. This makes sure I bank at least some profit from the trade but then have a risk free chance at a much bigger move with the 2nd part of the trade. Risk free trading is nirvana for forex traders !

My note taking has been atrocious this last few weeks due to all the emails and admin to do with the blog. Whilst at the same time trying to trade my own accounts (+ daughters micro account)!

Therefore some of the signal TIMES that I state below may be wrong. I did get a signal but I am not 100% sure of the times.
Please don’t email me saying that “I cant see the wednesday 20.00 hour signal on my charts”, because I might be wrong ! I am trying to implement a better, more accurate system for this coming week.

I will try to find the time to post more regularly during the week and wherever possible before the close of the daily candle my thoughts on what might happen, which trades are none starters and which of the possibles are most likely to be the best to take.

I have had days when 6/7 trades have come at once. if i had waited until they arrived i would not have had time to get many trades placed before price moved. as Isaid in one of the articles below it is vital in forex that you plan the trade ahead and then trade the plan.

The important part is there were over 40 signals (including12 daily) off the 2 platforms.

All times are actual times I received them BST = Gmt +1 (not what platform says)
Monday 8th 6.00 am Forex meta: euro, chf, jpy,aud,nzd,cad
7.00 am Alpari uk: jpy,nzd,cad
Tuesday 9th Daily : Forex Meta gbp,euro,chf,jpy,aud,gbp/yen
I also had 4 hour signals (not sure time): euro/yen, aud/yen, nzd/$ Daily : Alpari uk: Chf, cad,gbp/yen, euro, gbp
Wednesday 4 hour Forex meta: 6.00 am jpy. 10.00 am: euro/cad
14.00 chf,cad,euro,euro/gbp 18.00: nzd, aud
Alpari uk: 15.00 nzd, aud, chf, euro, euro/gbp
Daily Forex meta: Gbp/yen
Thursday Forex meta : 6.00 am gbp, aud/jpy, aud * ( a friend of mine in mexico on same platform at exact same time had 2 extra signals here)
Alpari 15.00 euro7yen, aud/$
Friday Forex meta 06.00 am: jpy. 10.00 gbp/yen
18.00 DO NOT TAKE THESE TRADES LATE FRIDAY AS PER The LMT RULES: euro/gbp, nzd/$, gbp,aud/jpy, gbp/yen<br>
I made over 650 pips this week, JUST from the LMT. One of you, Rob, made 820. He had never made that many in 3 months before! I am trying to find some kind of way to verify my pips total for the doubters amongst you. My trades are spread over 3 accounts.
My priority at the moment is to make a living/pips and keep up to date with the support. But I am getting better organised, just bear with me
As i pointed out in this article http://forex-fxtrader.com/If-Its-Raining LMT-Pips-Where-Did-Mine-Go-.html, if you are not getting the same number of signals, you need to copy what i am doing. Forex meta is obviously giving me a lot more signals at the moment.

Simply download another free metatrader platform from forex meta and run 2 at the same time.

Last week I posted an article showing you how you can add fibonacci numbers to your charts and use them to give you clues where price is likely to reverse/stop after a major move:
http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/Forex-Trends-&-Double-Bottoms.html. It is important that you learn this. This worked amazingly well on numerous pairs this week. See the euro/$ example below

See how pice pulled back EXACTLY to the 61.6% fib line before resuming its downward direction

See how price pulled back EXACTLY to the 61.8% fib line before resuming its downward direction

The following $/yen example is even better. Remember I said that the more indications you have that price is going to head in a different direction the better. Here we had price rebounding off a 50% fib line (standard fib trade) at the same time as an lmt signal.

$/yen example of fibonacci move on 4 hour forex chart

$/yen example of fibonacci move on 4 hour forex chart

The week ahead. Trade plan week commencing 15th June 2009

This research is taken from forex meta charts. This has taken me 5 hours today and my wife is going nuts. You need to learn to do this for yourselves. It is also more detailed than you need. But hopefully it gives you an idea of the planning and thought processes that go through successful forex traders minds.

gbp/$ No. There is a quadruple top on the 4 hour chart. Price could move sideways for a few days. We need price to either break through for continued direction or bounce off for a pullback to give an entry late in the week

euro/$. There is the possibility of a trade in the next few days. Keep your eye on it. Price currently stuck between 1.4133 & 1.3930 area

chf, jpy/$, aud, NO

euro/yen Possible tuesday. But lots of rejection 138.00 area/sideways at moment

gbp/yen NO, but broke through double top at 160.65 area. We need a pullback

Aud/yen same as above, broke top at 79.50 area

cad & euro cad. I am still avoiding at the moment

Euro/gbp. possible pullback up if mondays candle closes green. Will be against the trend on a daily, but could give us a 4 hour signal

$/yen has no signal, but price broke above 200ema on daily at 98.00 area. Various yen pairs as i said above have broken through upwards resistance. We could see lots of movement this week, BUT stick to your lmt rules.

Daily Charts (remember if you only have time to trade the daily charts, check the 4 hour charts at the same time. Sometimes there are signals on the 4 hour that are not on the daily).

If you are here from an invitation from me on the forum at traders secret library or twitter and you would like to receive a copy of my advanced lmt rules and be included in future updates please email me: marc@forex-fxtrader.com


Hi, Lots of you made incredible pips last week. Some of you are relatively new to forex and yet are reporting gains of 500/600 pips in a week. Well done. The Lmt formula has been incredibly successful for me for the last 10 days +5000 pips on demo and 1950 on a live micro account.

You will not achieve these results all the time.  These must surely be exceptional. My aim is to make 15/20 pips a day as a minimum. My results this year have been well above this at 50+ per day, but I have been trading for over 5 years. Please do not get carried away.

Stick to the advanced trading rules that I sent you and follow correct money management. I have emailed my followers a cautionary note for how to trade the LMT forex formula this coming week. Things are likely to be a bit tricky for the next few days, make sure you read it !

How to Plan your trades.

I have had lots of questions asking me how do I decide which trades to take and just as important, those to leave alone. As you will have discovered by now, it is not unheard of to get signals on 6 or more pairs all at the same time on the 4 hour charts.

Plan The trade. Trade The Plan

My method for planning my trades is the same on the daily and 4 hours charts. A point to remember; If you are only able to trade the daily charts there is a possiblity of a 4 hour trade even if there isn’t a daily one. Make sure you check the 4 hour charts as well at the close of the daily.

  1. 3o minutes before a candle is due to close go to each chart and look to see which pairs have the possibilty of a trade. Ignore those that won’t qualify due to the rules ie If there haven’t been enough red candles followed by a closing green, then no long trade is possible and vice versa for a short trade.
  2. Have a look at the size of the candles. Is the trend correct etc etc
  3. Lets say we now have 5 possible trades.
  4. Now take the possibles and see which pairs correlate (explained in the advanced rules). For example if there is a possible trade on the NZD/$ and AUD/$, these 2 pairs go in the same direction 80%+ of the time so its almost an identical bet. Similarly the chf and the euro/$ go in the opposite direction 80%+.
    Don’t take them both at the same time. Decide which one has the chance to make the biggest gain; smallish candles preceeding candles, no major psychological level near eg gbp coming up to 2.00 would be less likely to break.
  5. Now we have narrowed it down to 3 possibles from 5.
  6. Wait for the candle to close and the signal to arrive. It is very tempting to get in early before the candle closes and make some extra pips. Don’t do it. I never enter a trade just before the close of a 4 hour candle. Often a candle will race in the opposite direction in the last 5 minutes.
  7. Now we have a signal for 3 pairs. We have already decided which ones we will take (if the signal arrives). Take it. Place your stops and 1st target. Open the other 2 as quickly as possible.
  8. If by the time you have placed the 1st trade the  price has moved more than a few pips on the 2nd and 3rd trades. Leave them alone. What I do is keep watching the 15 minute chart to see if price pulls back to this area. Then get in if it does.  You can also place a forward order to get in at this pre determined price.
  9. Manage the trade by the rules. If the signal says 25 pips profit take 25 from the signal. If you got in 5 pips too late, only take 20.
  10. Take the rest of the day off. If you have made your minimum 20 pips target and stop is to break even on the 2nd. Chill

For those of you in  my LMT support group I have emailed you my analysis for the week ahead. Trade carefully for the next few days whilst some of the pairs decide whether thay are changing direction or just pulling back.

If you would like to know more about the LMT Formula and how to trade it successfully, check out mine and members reviews here;

http://forex-fxtrader.com/blog/?p=389 Those of you who join through links on this site are invited to receive a free copy of my “advanced rules,” trading advice and regular emails and updates. Join Here

Lots of you gained BIG pips today. Jaime reported winning 600+ pips: “Marc let me tell you so far 600 pips on GBPJPY, EURJPY . You hit a HOME RUN w/ this LMT advice.. thank you.”

I made 1017 pips closing fridays trades and 566 today. I earned more money in 2 days than I used to earn in a month and I was still mainly on reduced stakes of $3.30 a pip. My normal stake is well over $10 but caution is best when using a new system.

My trades were; 363 on gbp/yen ( i was up 460 at its highest point), +110 aud/yen (180 high) and +93 euro/yen (160 high) for a total of 566.

I also closed fridays trades for gains of  435 gbp/$ ( was up 212 friday night), 247 Nzd/$ ( 180 friday night) and finally cad +335.  Fridays total therefore was 1017 pips !!

This was gbp/jpy trade monday 1st June 2009

This was gbp/jpy trade monday 1st June 2009

The most important thing now for all of us using the system is to CALM DOWN !

It is very easy to get carried away when you are on a roll in forex. It is vital that you follow the money management rules and never risk more than 2.5% of your trading bank on a single trade.

This is further complicated with the LMT formula as we have 7 pairs that have the $ involved and 3 pairs that are jpy related.  We need to be very careful.

Also, I have had lots of emails and screenshots from members who are getting different signals to me due to variations of time settings on different platforms. I will let you know which platform/time settings that are giving the best results.

In the long run I suspect all should be the same, but I am running 2 metatrader platforms and one is much more successful than the other at the moment.

For those of you who joined LMT through my link, In todays email update I will send out a detailed set of “advanced rules” that you need to follow to make sure that you protect your bank. Which trade signals not to take. How to go forward with the LMT formula.

The Most important rule in forex is Protect your bank

For those of you considering joining the LMT, click on my link below to check it out. Then E mail me a copy of your purchase invoice and you will receive my support and advice to help you get started with this great system. Click on this banner below to find out more;


If you are still not sure read my review and the comments from my followers who have invested in the LMT and are gaining lots of pips !

http://forex-fxtrader.com/blog/?p=389#comments

As I mentioned in today’s members email; I was a volunteer in yesterdays Lanzarote Iron Man. As a member of the “doping control team” I got to meet and chaperone the winner, Belgian, Bert Jammear.

Unfortunately as Bert crossed the finish line and passed into my care, he collapsed ! Not surprising considering he had just won (for the second consecutive year)  the most gruelling triathlon in the world.
Read the rest of this entry

Forex Money Management.

Many of you are asking me to explain forex money management. Managing your money is THE most important part of forex. If you have none left you can’t be a forex trader !

Eric sent me this, so I will use his figures to show you how I would manage his account; “I will be opening a $10,000 live account and I want to make a profit of $2,000 a month ($100 a day) and risk no more than $1,000 a month. I’ve been trying a demo account with a credit of $10k and have been successful in making a $100 a day, but
since I don’t have a good money management plan, I would risk too much on trades sometimes.”

The MOST important part of forex trading is to not lose your trading bank. To do this we need to strictly control the amount of money we are willing to risk per trade. Presuming that you have traded a demo account and now feel confident enough in your methods to get in to forex for real.

This is how I would approach Erics account; 1) I would leave $8000 in the bank and only start with $2.000. Why ?
Often a new trader will blow their bank in a short period of time. A simple conclusion: It would be better to blow a $2000 bank than a $10.000. Then go back to a demo
and learn from your mistakes.

a) Making trades on a demo account is NOTHING like the adrenalin rush you get when you have real money on the table. On a $10.000 account I recommend that you risk no more than 2.5% of your account per trade.

Why ? Because if you have a losing streak you would need to lose 40 times before you wipe your bank out. On a $10.000 account that would be risking $250. But believe me that that if you go straight to risking $250 per trade and have a few losses early on you can scare yourself from pulling the trigger later on.

Remember fear and greed rule the forex market.

b) As I have explained many times before in the free lessons section:
http://forex-fxtrader.com/Free-forex-training.html 95% of new traders lose money.

Often a new trader will blow their bank in a short period of time. There is a strange psychology that comes in to play where you are say $1500 down. You now have $500 left. Mentally you seem to write it off. You now ignore all the rules and keep going for the “big one” to win it all back. The obvious outcome is that you lose the lot.

I have done this twice in my early days. You know you should stop, but the urge to “win it back” over rides your common sense, (revenge trading is a very dangerous habit to avoid).

Now you have lost the lot. Most fx traders quit. The rest dust themselves down, go back to a demo account and come back again when they have another bank not unlike a gambler in a casino. (Personally I think that forex is far nearer to gambling than investing.

Anyone who suggests you “invest” your life savings in forex is seriously not to be trusted).

Correlation

No matter which path you choose, decide on your rules and write them down. “I will risk a maximum of 5% per trade.”  Be careful here because some forex pairs are directly correlated.Correlation refers to the way pairs react in relation to each other.

Especially the euro/usd and the $/chf.
In april 2009 when the chf was going up, the euro/$ was going down 92% of the time* Over the last 12 months the average is 80%.

Therefore a buy on the chf/$ is almost identical to a sell on the euro/$. I mainly trade the euro/$ because this pair moves, on average, 30 pips more per day than the chf,** thus you have the opportunity to gain more pips. However, I closely watch the chf to assist, especially in deciding on entries and exits.

If I was to take both trades and my rules say only risk 5% of my bank per trade, I would have to risk 2.5% on the euro part and 2.5% on the chf. Also, you have to consider that a gbp/$ and euro/$ trade is very similar in that both are betting that the $ is going to go either up or down.

In April 2009 the euro/$ and gbp/$ went in the same direction 62% of the time.** Again you have to take this into consideration and establish a rule before you start to trade.

Back to Erics’ question. Lets assume he takes my advice and decides to start with a $2000 micro account. His maximum risk will be 5%/$100 per trade. My method of trading is to buy 2 lots. With the 1st lot I look for a profit of at least 20 pips. Bank it and then move the stop on the 2nd lot to entry (this way I bank some pips and have the chance of catching a big move with the second).

If Eric decides to trade this way, he needs to split his 5% risk over 2 trades. That is 2.5% per lot. I will explain in a new post how to calculate micro lot sizes.

Money management is fundamental to your success in forex. You have to make rules, but most importantly, you have to follow those rules. My biggest weakness in forex trading is discipline. I have rules, but because there is no one looking over my shoulder, I am prone to break those rules. I have always worked for myself, so I am not used to doing what I am told !

* source for correlations, fxstreet: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/fx_correlations/FX_Correlations__May___How_Do_1241196771559.html

* source for average daily ranges
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/chartpts.html

The secret to becoming a successful forex trader is the ability to maximise your gains and minimise your losses. This is easier said than done ! In my 1st month trading forex I won 65% of the trades and yet I somehow managed to lose money !

Obviously my losses were bigger than my wins, a common problem for the new forex trader. The solution was to look more closely at my fx trading style. I was getting out of trades too early and my losses were too high.

Conventional wisdom says that you should not enter a trade unless your potential gain is at least double your potential loss. Thus, your risk/ reward ratio is 1:2. Seems easy enough, but how can the new trader determine what is the potential gain in a trade ?

I use a combination of indicators and logic. Unfortunately there are a myriad of different things we need to consider and these can also vary depending on the time-frame we are trading.

The following are just a few that we might want to consider if we were looking to day trade on smaller time charts (15 minute/ 1 hour) with a 50 pip stop;

1) Average daily range. If the gbp has moved 180 pips so far today and the average daily range is 200 pips, then I would not take the trade if I was expecting price to extend beyond that limit. There are always exceptional days in forex when the movement can be double, but the % likelihood says that 200 is more likely. Therefore to risk 50 pips to win 20 is a no go.

2) If your potential trade is only 30 pips away from previous strong support or resistance, this could be a trend line, a double top/double bottom. A strong psychological level, perhaps $1.50 to the gbp.

3) Equally, fibonacci lines are often areas that price will bounce off, as are pivot points and bollinger bands.

4) Counter trend. More conservative traders will only trade with the trend. Your potential trade has lots of reasons to enter, but the trend is in the opposite direction.

5) Personally I never take a trade if price is near to lots of emas on different time-frames that it has to break; especially the 200 ema. This also depends on the direction of the emas. For example, if I was looking to long a pair and the 200ema was pointing down or even flat I would not take the trade.

However, if price has hit the ema a few times and the ema has now turned up I would be more likely to consider the trade.

In the following example I show you lots of reasons why I would consider buying gbp/usd, but more importantly why I would NOT enter the trade;

Lots of reasons in this chart to NOT enter a trade

Lots of reasons in this chart to NOT enter a long trade

Reasons to consider why we WOULD take the long trade.

Imagine we are watching the chart in real-time on the green candle;

  1. Price has moved more than the average daily range, but as price is retracing there is a potential gain of  100+ pips back to the 1.5330 area.
  2. Price has almost double bottomed off yesterdays low and psychological area of 1.5100
  3. The 5/8 emas have crossed up and price has broken and closed above the 21 and 34 emas.
  4. If it confirmed a break above the 200ema and the 50% fib I would take the trade (assuming that there is nothing major in the way on other time frames).

Reasons NOT to take the long trade;

Again imagine we are at the illustrated green candle.

  1. My stop would need to be 70 pips away (below 78.6% fib) and yet price is unlikely to break the 200ema/50% area. Risk 70 pips, potential gain 0. (If price broke and closed above the 200ema and the fib I would take the trade. Put my stop in 1.5160 area. This would give me a risk of approx 50 pips for potential gain 120).
  2. Price has spiked but failed to break the 200 ema.
  3. Price has respected fib levels earlier in the day. It stopped 4 times at resistance on 61.8% fib and has now stopped – to the pip – at the 50% fib. Some days price seems to stop at every fib level.
  4. The trend for the day is down. Often price will pullback to the 50% fib area and then continue back down.
  5. All the emas are pointing down.
  6. The bollinger bands have closed through the candle (think of a door being slammed in its face:)

The flip side of this is that the 6+ reasons above to not enter a long (buy) here are perfect reasons
why we should SHORT here !

  1. Our stop loss need only be 10 pips the other side of the 50% fib and price has already moved 100 pips lower today. Thus our risk reward is 10 to gain 100 pips. Incredible risk reward that does come along quite often. The difficulty here for the novice trader is that as price is going up and everyone seems to be buying, a new trader would be scared to go against the herd.
  2. Price frequently reverses at a 50% fib level
  3. All the reasons above for not taking a long !

Result of the short trade

Price stayed nelow the 200, 55 and 34 ema for 100 pip gain

Price stayed below the 200, 55 and 34 ema for 100 pip gain

Here is a great example of a trade that I predicted on twitter in february of this year. This is on the daily jpy/usd.

Price has broken and closed above the 55ema for the 1st time in 6 months

Price has broken and closed above the 55ema for the 1st time in 6 months

  1. Price twice broke the 34 ema in this 6 month period, but on both occasions bounced back off the 55 ema. Thus the 55ema can be said to have been in control of price on this pair. Finally price broke above the 55ema and notice how the 34 and 55 emas are rolling over from a steeply downward trend to a potential upwards move.
  2. The great thing for me with this trade is that in my mind when price breaks the 55ema its next stop is the 200 ema (top arrow) which was 600 pips away.
  3. Risk reward was brilliant. My stop only needed to be some 60 pips just below the 55ema. Hey it held price down for 6 months, no reason to think it would not be equally difficult to break back down: resistance becomes support.

So what happened ?

Price stopped to the pip atn the 200ema on the DAILY chart !

Price stopped to the pip at the 200ema on the DAILY chart !

Many cynics think that technical trading is just mumbo jumbo ( I used to think the same), but this move was logical and predicatable for me. Also note how price struggled for the following 10 days or so at this 200 ema area.

Unfortunately, despite my brilliant prediction ! I only managed about 250 of the potential 600 pips as I moved my stop too near (twice), but that is a different story.

I hope this gives you insight as to what to look for when taking a trade and the importance of having a risk reward ratio of at least 1:2.

if you have any questions re this article please post them here on the blog


In April most of my 1800+ pips were made from breaks of asian high and low ranges. This week it has been bounces off 200 emas+ lots of other reasons. This is not my normal method of trading. I am adapting to the market as I see it on an almost daily basis at the moment.
NEVER trade just off a 200ema rejection. Look for lots of clues on your forex charts over lots of timeframes (see the aud trade further down this page for an example of a trade taken for a multitude of reasons).

The following screen shot is the Euro/gbp this morning , 15 minute chart. I posted the following on twitter at the London open;
morning . euro/gbp very interesting right now. broke emas up & just making new hi’s for the day. 88.50 is also a fib. if can break here, up.

Asian high & lows marked in yellow

Euro/Gbp Asian high and lows marked in yellow

I have had a lot of questions asking me what is a “confirmed” break of a range or channel. For me it is a candle that CLOSES above or below the channel.  If you look at arrow 1 in the diagram, price pierces the asian high & the fib & the 0.8850, but it doesn’t close above it. Thus it is not a confirmed break.

The 2nd candle is a confirmed break for me. The candle has broken & closed below the asian low and the next candle carries on in the same direction. I shorted here. Again on twitter i posted;

“euro gbp never confirmed break up at 8850 upside. but just confirmed break of downside 8820, that has held for last 24 hours”.

Because it was a break of a 4 hour support line that had held 4 times, I got in here with 1 lot. The aim was to take a 2nd lot if it pulled back or carried on going down. Unfortunately it pulled back and  took me out -25 pips. I then took a 2nd lot at arrow 3.

This is the pull-back that I should have waited for in the 1st place ! It moved down. I moved my stop to entry, so no loss and it came back and took me out again.  The reason I got in straight away is the this pair only moves 100 pips a day on average and doesn’t always give pullbacks.

I did make 20 pips on a gbp/$ trade that was a carbon copy of 4th mays trade. I got up a bit late, so missed the initial bounce off the 200 ema. I waited then for price to break the 34/55emas which it did. The bollinger bands closed in on this candle so i waited for a pullback to the 5 and 55emas. Textbook entry.

Same as monday. Bounce off 200ema, break of 34 & 55 emas

Same as monday. Bounce off 200ema, break of 34 & 55 emas

I took 20 pips off the 1st trade, but then had to go out. I moved the stop on my 2nd lot to break even to let it run. Unfortunately by the time I got back it pulled back and took me out at zero.

I then had a losing trade on 2 lots aud – 20 pips x 2 = -40. I Then took another long at a bounce of the 200ema/ break of 34/55emas on the aud as you can see in the following diagram.

The green dotted lines are my entries. The black line under the highest arrow was a 78.6% fib of yesterday

The green dotted lines are my entries. The black line above the highest arrow was a 78.6% fib of yesterday. The dotted red top line is 1st profit target. Bottom red line is stop.

This was a good entry for lots of reasons;

  • it was 7400 psychological level
  • price rejected at the 200 ema
  • 2nd entry was a break back above 78.6 fib
  • 30 minute and 1 hour emas in same area
  • was a trend line on 4 hour chart
  • Trend for aud is up.

I have been playing around with trades on metatrader for the last few days to get ready for the $1.000.000 challenge. If you see dotted lines they are just entries (green) and stops or targets (red).

I then “bent” my own rules. I do not normally trade just before the news, but the gbp AGAIN bounced off the 200ema and the usd/chf again bounced back below the DAILY 200ema. I was going to take the trades anyway but it was 20 minutes before the news. I entered and then 5 minutes before the news moved the stops close to price.

Then the madness that is forex kicked in. The U.S. employent news was much better than expected, therefore the value of the $ goes up, right ? WRONG. The dollar fell sharply against the gbp, euro, aud, and chf. Why ? I have no idea !

However it worked in my favour as my 2nd lot aud shot up 30 pips in 15 minutes. My gbp went up 50 pips in less than 15 minutes and my chf dropped 40 pips.

Chf break. The red line is my stop which was also my entry.

Chf break on 15 minute fx chart. The red line is my stop which was also my entry.

This was 2nd entry off 200 ema bounce today. Stop moved close for news

This was 2nd entry gb/$ off 200 ema bounce today. Stop moved close for news

The gbp did the exact same thing again approx 3pm bst (2 hours after New York opened). Do not rely on the 200 ema on its own. Also, the more times price is rejected here, the more likely it is to break it the next time.

I had a lot of trades today. My net gain was 118 pips which was helped a great deal by my luck with the news going in my favour


Lots of smaller trades today, without much success on follow throughs. I was trying to get back in the good books with my wife, so had to go out and only traded a few hours in the morning, London session.

The following is a euro/$ trade, bounce off a 200ema. The chf bounced down off daily 200ema at the same time. Great confirmation. I got in late on this as I was going out and managed to scrape 20 pips on 1st lot. Taken out 2nd lot at entry.

This was a carbon copy of yesterdays gbp move. I hope you are learning from all this !

This was a carbon copy of yesterdays gbp move. I hope you are learning from all this !

My 1st trade of the day was a simple break out pullback of the asian range on the jpy/$. I have shown you this so many times now in previous posts. If you need to refresh your memory have a read back through some of these older posts.,

Again I got my 20 pip 1st lot (just) and broke even on the 2nd lot.

Just as i was finally going out, I posted the following on twitter;
aud back at asian overnight high. wait for it to break & then pullback. horrible 1 hour boll bands on chf & euro, not great other majors”.

This aud trade would have earned you 20 pips 1st lot again on simple break/pullback of overnight asian high.

In the afternoon session (New York) which i really don’t like, i made and lost pips on a lot of silly little trades that I haven’t time to explain, but it was a net gain of 8 pips from 3 trades ! waste of time. Very tired today, so I’ll leave it there. If you don’t feel 100% it is best not to trade forex. I’m off for a siesta. hasta luego.

gbp is returning to top of 4 hour trend line again

gbp is returning to top of 4 hour trend line again

As I explained in great detail my ” April 2009 Results”… post. The gbp is returning to the same upper 4 hour trend line again. This may not happen tomorrow (monday) with it being an international holiday BUT this is an extremely important area again.

Price is above all the emas on the longer time-frame charts. It is “riding the 5″ ema on the 4 hour chart shown above. There has been a 34/55 ema cross up on the daily & the bollinger bands have opened to the upside on the same chart.The next long term target on the daily chart would be the 1.5600 area.

There are lots of indications that price is due to go up. However the vastly reduced number of traders on a bank holiday could mean that price just goes side ways for the day.

Final option is that it could bounce back down here ! Yep forex is that simple. Price is either going to go up, down or sideways !

But, you need to learn to look for important areas where price will react. I have shown you lots of examples of how to look for clues as to the next direction for price, here on the blog as well as the free lessons on the main site.

Good luck. I hope I am helping you learn to be able to trade for yourself. I have not met a forex robot yet that lives up to the sales hype. Signal services can work well for a while, but when they hit  a bad patch  you will have learnt nothing.

If you are serious about trading forex then you need to put in the hours to learn all you can.

Great start to the day. My euro/$ trade which I opened yesterday, as explained in my results, closed for a 145 pip profit. I have then taken 20 pips off a gbp and +20 on a euro long, break of the asian overnight high. And a further 28 pips off the 2nd euro lot.

Still struggling to get follow through on some of the 2nd lots, but I am now almost + 1800 pips this month !

Todays trades were the same, simple  strategy that  i have been using for most of the month and which I have explained in previous updates.  This is not my normal trading strategy, but you have to have a number of plans to suit the different phases of the markets.

I was annoyed with myself though for having missed an extremely good, longer term trade on the australian $ (aud). I recommend you only trade 1 or 2 pairs if you are new to forex, BUT on the longer charts, which I prefer, you do have the time to analyse and plot well in advance.

Normally I would have been waiting for price to hit at the 200ema on the chart. Plan a stop somewhere below the 200 ema and then go to the 15 minute chart to find an entry.

aud_4_hour_chart

Price had already bounced off the 200 ema previously

As you can see there has been a 250 pip gain so far on this move and without the whip saw movements of some of the other pairs. It has gone up nice and steady over 3 days.

If you do not have the time to trade forex full time, then get used to looking at the longer term charts. You have longer to plan and the gains are often large and yet can have (like the above example) a relatively small stop.

On this trade you would have risked 50 pips (previous low) to win 250 + and its still going. I could kick myself !

Another example of the 200ema was on todays chf.  I posted the following on twitter 10.00am bst

“on the 4 hour & daily charts bolls open. chf looks good to fall probably to 1350 1st target. daily 200 ema”.

I was in the euro from a 15 minute chart, but i got out because i forecast that the chf would stop at 1350/200ema. It did almost to the pip.

When the chf is going down 80% of the time the euro is going up and vice-versa. As I am writing this article now 16.30 hours bst, the 200ema on the daily chf chart is now being broken (see below). Again this is not unusual. Price will often reject here, pull back, before gathering steam to have another go.

This is a 15 min chart but I had the daily 200ema (green line) on it

This is a 15 min chart but I had the daily 200ema (green line) on it

I have now almost 2000 pips in the bag for April 2009. The temptation is to go for the big 2000. Hopefully I can retain my discipline. In the past I have had amazing weeks, only to get over-confidant and blow all the gains the following week.

My best week ever, a few years ago, was something over 1150 pips, but by months end I think i ended up with 500. Discipline. Sticking to your rules is the key to success in forex,

good luck,

Marc

Very strange day for me. I was pre-occupied with the euro/gbp & as a result missed moves on the other pairs. I was not helped by the fact that i had been awake half the night monitoring the pair. I was convinced there was a big move coming on it. In truth i thought it was going to go UP with a bang !

I managed to catch 20 pips off the 1st lot that I longed at 90.20 & 30 pips from a further pullback that gave me entry at 90.12. Both 2nd lots were taken out at entry. So mid morning and i was 50 pips up. Next i longed the same pair again at 90.03. with a short stop (just below the 200ema on the 15 minute @ 89.88 for a loss of 15 x 2 = -30 pips.

I still thought the pair were heading up, so was a little hesitant to short, but eventually got in at a confirmed break of the same 200ema on the 15 minute chart & a fib just below @ 88.80. I took 20 pips profit off the 1st lot & then got out too early on the 2nd at the 200 ema on the 1 hour, for only 30 pips gain. As i write the price has just fallen another 60 pips.

As you can see on the 15 minute chart below, there were clues that the price was not going to go any higher. The top arrow shows how price has again broken through the bollinger bands (remember my bollinger band lesson on main site http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/bollinger-bands.html ). This candle was also followed by a spinning top candle = indecision.

I entered short on lower area (confirmed break of psych & 200ema)

I entered short on lower area (confirmed break of psych & 200ema)

The lower arrow is where i finally accepted what the charts were telling me ! and I shorted. The short was taken because price had broken through the 200 ema and the candle closed below it. I only needed a short stop, so the risk reward was excellent.

The moral of this story is do what the charts tell you. NOT what you think. Also do not become so preoccupied with one pair and miss opportunities on the others. In truth, I have found trading to be very difficult in April. This sounds a remarkably stupid thing to say when you consider i am currently 1222 pips up for April, but it honestly hasn’t been easy and i am using lots of trading methods that i dont usually.

Todays total + 70 pips

April total so far (posted on here and twitter) + 1222 pips

I posted this on twitter friday afternoon re euro/gbp. “pullback to 90.20 or 90 would be very logical bounce back up for Monday am for me. All emas pointing up. could go a long way next week”.

Unfortunately i don’t trade friday afternoons so my rules initially kept me out of the trade. I then stayed up half of  Sunday night to catch the damn thing ! Eventually I got my orders filled at 90.20 and later on 90.12.

Arrow shows approx time i posted on twitter to look for entry UP

Arrow shows approx time i posted on twitter to look for entry UP

Price was clearly coming down on the 15 minute chart above. Why would i think that its going to go back up again ? See my analysis further down the page.

What i thought i would do today is give you a detailed analysis of this pair over various chart time frames, so that you can learn for yourself, how to look for clues.

If you are new to forex, i strongly recommend you concentrate on 1 or at most 2 pairs to start with. Each have their own characteristics and you will find that you soon get a “feel” for it.

I still only specialise in 3 or 4 pairs. gbp/$, euro/$, chf and euro/gbp. I will occasionally look at aud and jpy, but only if i see clues on daily charts.I had a 600 pip move in February/march on jpy that was purely off the daily chart.

Take a look for yourself. It is so obvious now and to be honest, it was so obvious then, before it happened. I will write an article explaining this trade at some point in the future.

Back to the euro/gbp trade. The reason i said it could pullback to 90.20 was the 34 ema on the 15 minute chart and the 200 ema on the 4 hour chart were both in the same area. Price went through that.

My second area of probable change was 90.00 for lots of reasons (had it not been friday pm i would have entered 1st  lot here).

1) 90.00 is a HUGE psychological number. It broke here previous days & a pullback to same place is logical to me.

2) There were emas on the 30 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour & daily charts all in this area. It went through here. Eventually it stopped at 89.78. Just above a fib from fridays chart & the 34 ema on the 1 hour. It bounced back up.

This same 1 hour candle CLOSED ABOVE the 90.00. I would have taken my 2nd lot here with a stop just below the 89.78 previous low. Candles closing above/below important places are very significant.

Reasons to suspect price will keep going up

The key word here is “suspect”. I have no more of a crystal ball than you. What we must do as forex traders is to analyse, calculate and then take action. I may be completely and utterly wrong here BUT i am satisfied that  my trades were based on sound, logical  reasons.

Price has broken & is above all emas on 1 hour chart

Price has broken & is above all emas on 1 hour chart

This screen shot was taken 10.30 am bst Monday 27th April. As you can see price has broken above the 200 ema & the strong 90.00 area. The 5 ema has crossed the 200 ema. Price could well pullback to the 5/200 ema to give another chance to enter long. If it breaks (candle closed) below here, we start to consider short.

Daily chart;

Daily chart. Price has closed ABOVE 34/55 emas

Daily chart. Price has closed ABOVE 34/55 emas

The daily chart is now at a critical point. A 34/55 cross up or down here in the next few days will probably show us which way price is going to go on this pair for the next few weeks. A 34/55 cross up here would suggest to me that price will move at least 300 pips to 93.00 area. Why there ? Trend line on daily. A cross down would signify 87.00 area. See chart below;

34 cross up tells me target trend line. Cross down target 200ema

34 cross up tells me target trend line. Cross down target 200ema

O.K, hopefully this has given you lots to think about and will help you learn to look at the charts for clues (especially the longer term ones). I have made 50 pips (off 2 lots) so far from this analysis and have the balance running with stops at entry.

Price may well fall back today, but this analysis will be useful to me for the rest of this week as I am looking mainly at the daily chart.

I will post todays results later on. Good luck to all.

Another great post from a member of the “club”! David has posted this in response to Ernies earlier question. I have posted here again as this is too good to get lost elsewhere. Great advice for anyone new to forex. I have seen less information in e-books that I have bought.

Ernie, Your questions and dilemmas are common amongst Forex newcomers . and not so new as well.

Forex is an exciting and (could be) rewarding financially -
One of the aspect it lacks is – camaraderie ! But – Forex is a lonely job – there are few traders who will share their ‘Secerets’ and ‘System’ with you .

There are few ‘winners’ in this trade (Some say ’90% lose money in Forex)
Some compare it to a ‘Casino’ betting.
The REAL successful traders have no incentive to share it with anyone. The others – either built web-sites or sell signals , or just wander in the darkness.

Marc is one of the few I`ve seen so far – who opened his heart and notebook and is willing to teach you ! Follow him ! (Twitter too)

I wanted to contribute a bit of my limited experience with Forex trading.
To make it easier to follow here are some of my trading lessons:

1) ‘Nobody knows what the market will do ‘

You could listen to advice – but always remember this #1 .

The signal sellers , the fancy web sites that promise you miracles – better print and post this rule. The FX market is so huge, so involved , and so morphing – makes it next to impossible to predict.

( I’ve seen the Dollar plunge 10% in value in 15 minutes when a small Cessna was flying directly on a collision course toward the White House’ shortly after 9/11 . Turned out to be a lost flying student and his instructors.
Usatoday.com/news/Washington/2002/06/19/white-house-evacuation.htm)

There are exceptions, and like any profession or ‘trade’ – you will have to ‘spend the time and ; money’ to find them.

If anyone tells you (And it goes for life in general too )
“It will be easy and you don’t have to learn”  Click on ‘Delete’ !

2) You can’t take ‘PIPS’ to the grocery store

PIPS are just numbers.
In some trades a PIP worth $10 , some equal $9 each , and some are $15
If you trade a ‘Mini’ contract your PIP is a mere $1 …….
So will you sell everything and just trade for 15 PIPs a day ? You Don’t !

The focus on PIPS is misleading .
You have to measure your results in Dollars ! And sense.
(or what ever currency you had opened your trader account with).

In Large accounts – a mere 10 PIPS can represent Thousands of $$ !
PIPS don’t take into account the ‘Spread’ the ‘Interest’ and other charges and fees brokers will charge you on your way to ‘The cashier ‘.

3) Demo trade for as long as it take to establish a winning system !
If you feel comfortable after 30 days of Demo trade – you are lucky .
I recommend NOT to put a time limit on developing and perfecting a weather proof system ( Easier said than done )
And even than …take small steps ( Like feeling the water temperature) .

4) The key is ‘Money Management’ !

Managing risk is studied in the best of business schools.
It is a subject by itself – and I’ll expand on it by special request.
What makes the difference between ‘Trading’ and ‘Gambling’ is money management !.
And ‘Capital preservation’ !

In Forex this issues takes on added importance since there are 50% chances the market will change course at ANY GIVEN moment.
The few times I had suffered huge losses were when I took ‘too big a leverage; of my position – and suffered a ‘Margin Call’ ( Guess I wasn’t ‘Too big to fail’ back than ……) But I learned my lesson.

5) Fear and  Greed are good helpers – if you harness them !
We are all humans (well…Most of us are)  and utilizing our emotions is what makes us superior to machines, (Albeit the narrowing gap…..)

Fear – Holds you to carefully trade while assessing all risks.
Greed – Brings you here in the first place and keep you going for more.
Think of it as Hot and Cold water. If you utilize only one, you may get burnt , or freeze,but if you find the right balance – you are on your way to the promised land !

6) Let the market work for you !  Not the other way.

I used to chase the market ‘Not to miss on a trade’ that looked so promising. ‘What a rally…. what a ‘Stampede’. I used to get so excited…especially during economic news ( Usually 8.30Am EST ).

Nowadays I only use ‘Entry orders’ where it is more likely my position will bear fruits.

It`s a bit like chasing a fish in the ocean – the chances for me to catch it – are slim to none – the fish is faster , slippery, and can change his swimming direction with a fraction of a second – you will lose your breath and remain hungry.

But – if you” learn to set your ‘traps’ wisely – in advance – the fish is more likely to fall for your baits.

I ‘Clip’ most of my ‘profits’ at around 8 AM EST ……why ?  The fish took the bait overnight and I had my harvest ready in the morning.

I find that many a times – I do BETTER and earn MORE when I am AWAY  from the screen , Tinker-less , trade less and Emotional-Less ( Like Marc’s walks on the beach…..) than when I bite my nails looking how the market chips away off at my ‘profit’……

7) You didn’t earn anything – until you take your $$ out of the broker’s acct.
Remember that you had paid in with your hardest earned money . The money sits there at the Broker’s account To serve as collateral for your trade

Don’t let it pile up too high – YOU have to pay yourself – Like Payroll – when the heap gets higher – or you did nothing – Having your gains on ‘Paper’ only means little. Reward yourself – Even symbolically -once you Cushioned your account. I also set up an anount

8) Most  info and tools are free.

The ‘Retail’ part of Forex experienced a huge push in recent years . Millions of us are now on line trading.
The competition between dealers ( another separate subject ) is to your advantage. There is a glut of knowledge. Mostly free !
Books – Check first with your library…most books are boring and re hash what old info. After you read and LIKED the book – than think of buying it.

There are some useful forums ( ForexFactory.com ,DailyFx.com many more like these , don’t forget your salt grains !) You can really find good stuff on line .

I strongly recommend working with a ‘Mentor’ ! – someone with experience that will help you separate the chaff from the wheat , help you avoid pitfalls, and shorten your discovery path.

It is hard to find them – the good one are busy – and the bad ….are just that.
Try join a ‘Meetup’ group in your area. It is important to ‘press flash’ ‘see faces’ and bounce idea of a common board. ( Go to www.meetups.com)

I’ll break here on a ‘to be continued later’ promise  – as not to overwhelm you with too much info. Or blind you with science.

Best of luck ! And you’ll need it !!!

David

example of a pullback. This mornings euro pullback_to_21emaThe time is now 09.45 bst. This mornings analysis (approx 7.30am bst) is below. I update most in real time on twitter as this is a bit slow. There is a twitter feed bottom left of home page, but you have to refresh it for latest posts. Anyway from analysis below i have banked 40+ 70 pips on gbp short – probably got out too early but was at a 4 hour trend line. Also banked 25 pips + 20 locked in on euro gbp long. Balance still running..

Reason for update is keep your eye on euro/$ for possible short.

Euro/$ 60% of time goes same direction as cable. 70% time same as aud. both have broken down. All emas on euro suggest short as well. it will need to break the days previous low & pullback for me to go short.

Also the chf needs to be going up (76% of the time they go in opposite directions (known as correlation).

Finally there has only been 85 pips movement today so far. The average days move on euro is 200, so there is room to go in either direction. Keep looking for clues, but don’t dive in if it suddenly sets off. Wait for a pullback.

Posted earlier (07.30 ish bst).

morning all. I have a buy signal on 4 hour chart for euro/gbp @ 88.20 (its gone at the moment but could pullback to this area due to bollinger bands on 15 minute & 1 hour holding it back at the moment). Last 4 trading days it has been moving sideways along 78.6 fib on daily chart. Lowest point last few weeks is 87.85, so stop at 87.80 area for me. If it pullbacks to give me the entry i will go long.

No 4 hour signal on any other pairs. next candle close at 11am gmt.

gbp/$  charts favour down side but 78.6 fib pullback on 4 hour & psych level at 1.4700. need confirmed break & pullback for me to short. All emas in favour of a short as well on multiple time frames. Of the majors I suspect this has more chance, but hey who knows !

Bit more concerned with euro & chf. Both at double bottom/top areas. Personally expecting them to pullback.

I have managed to long euro/gbp at pullback to 88.30.

Policy with the rest is wait & see what happens, but gbp is just pulling back to break area at 1.4700.

I have shorted there, but its a liitle risky as london open could whipsaw it back up. For this reason I have small stop at 1.4720.

good luck with your trades. I will update later if I see anything developing.

Forex Advice If you are new to forex and thinking of giving this “make loads of money working only 10 minutes a day” investment thing a try, then listen up.


Forex is NOT investing. It is gambling.


There are ways to win at it but it is risky and you can literally lose your shirt, your house, your wife & your dog in an amazingly short period of time, if you don’t know what you are doing.

Anyone tells you differently is trying to sell you something.

The forex market is not easy. It is inhabited by the largest financial institutions in the world & these sharks, who make up 98% 0f the forex market are looking for a constant supply of small fry (You & me) to feed upon. If you do not know what you are doing you will not last 5 minutes.

Fact: 95% of newbies will lose money currency trading.

To further complicate matters forex has a language all of its own. Fibonacci, emas, macd, divergence, head & shoulders patterns to name but a few.

The hardest thing that I found as a beginner was that there is so much information available, especially on-line, that it is very easy to rapidly become lost in the maze of complex terminology, systems, trading platforms etc. I know because I have been there. Suddenly you hear of another “must have” robot or system and off you go at a tangent. Another week wasted & another $100 down the drain.

If you follow my Free Course you will have enough basic knowledge to trade forex profitably:

http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/Free-forex-training.html

Best advice for a forex newbie ? Don’t do it !

95% of all Forex traders (probably 99% of newbies) lose money. I know I did. Take up knitting , anything but forex !


You still here ?

Good. You might just make it. If you are going to stop at the 1st sign of trouble then you will be one of the 95% who fail. It took me more than 3 years of trying & losing before I cracked the code of how to make money on forex.


The most important piece of forex advice


Okay, you are still thinking of giving this forex thing a try or at least looking into it. Then this next piece of advice IS serious.

Do not start with real money until you have at least a basic grasp of what forex is about
.

All the major brokers have trading platforms that you can download for free* and they will give you a demo account where you can make trades in real time, BUT without risking a penny.

I know people who demo traded forex for over a year before they put real money on the table.

The problem is that most of us are in a rush and want to make loads of money quickly – I speak from experience, I went from a demo account to live within a few weeks. I also went from +$10k to – $10k within 18 months. I could afford it BUT eventually I had to stop, other wise I would have had been in trouble.

The most important thing in forex that I realised is that you can get rich, but a little more slowly.


* You can download a free copy of our recommended trading software platform (metatrader) here http://www.alpari.co.uk/ .


If you registered for the $million challenge you should have received a copy of my template to add to metatrader. If not,  send me an email. Contact Us.
Put “metatrader template” & I will send you a copy of my basic chart set ups.

This means that you can download and simply attach to your trading platform. This will save you hours of work & also means that you see what I am seeing & the course will be easier to follow. I promise not to spam you.

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