Archive for 'forex education'

Potential 400+ Forex pips gbp Monday

Comments (38)

The gbp/$ could present us with some very good trades on Monday, both with and without the LMT. Take a look at the 4 hour forex chart below. Notice how price has been trapped within a 400 pip range for the last few weeks. 400 pips @ $10 a pip will give you $4000 ! and is a months worth of pips if we can catch this move !

Price has failed to break the upper resistance line of 1.6600 since the 3rd of june (recent high). Price did actually “spike” through to 1.6620 on the 11th of June, but the candle closed back down below.  Price promptly fell back to 1.6200 which has acted as strong support 3 or 4 times.

Fig 1

Gbp/$ trending sideways on 4 hour forex chart

Gbp/$ trending sideways on 4 hour forex chart

Notice how the price at the last bounce back up returned up off the daily trend line which has been supporting price since april (diagonal yellow line). So how do we use this information to grab some of those pips ?

Lots of traders will be sat with orders placed to sell the pair at 1.6600 with a stop above 1.6625 (more conservative may go to 1.6670 recent 3rd june high). If you see that price is turning back down before there, look for reasons to support your theory, fibs, emas rolling over etc- as per the free lessons on the main site. This is not an LMT trade.

For lmt followers do not take a buy signal near to the top resistance line unless price breaks and closes above the 1.6600 resistance line.

However if price falls back to 1.6200/ daily trend line and we get an LMT trade. That would be great.

If price comes back down to the daily trend line (as I write this that would be the 1.6300 area), all of us need to look for reasons to buy with a stop either just the other side of the trend line (look for fibs/emas to help you decide) or more conservatively the other side of the 1.6200 strong support. 1.6180 is the recent low, so below that would be ultra conservative. Adjust your stake accordingly.

The other option is of course that price may break through (up or down). Do not be tempted to dive in. Wait for a candle to close. Often price will break through an area of strong support or resistance. Come back to that line and THEN continue the move. This is known as resistance becoming support or vice versa.

Fig 2

support_and_resistanceThis is the same 4 hour fx chart, just before the move shown in figure 1.

Working from the left, notice how price twice failed to break up through the 1.6200 line & the doji (indecision) candle.

The 6th candle finally breaks & closes above. The very next candle price comes back down and touches the line before continuing back up. That is a pullback. That is where we should enter. Resistance has now become support.

The 2nd arrow shows how price comes back down to this area and  (line is still continuing as support) price bounces back up again. Then we have a red candle that comes down and pierces (but doesn’t close). Finally a candle closes below the line. The next green candle comes back up and touches the line (pullback entry). The support line is now acting as resistance.

This is all basic forex chart tactics. Support and resistance are main areas to look for price to react. The secret is to plan ahead. Be sat waiting, like a bear waiting for a salmon, at just the place you know something is likely to happen.

Hope this helps. Get in the habit of looking in detail at the charts, the week-end is a great time, when the markets are closed, to just sit and go through the different time frames.

Other pairs in brief: I have started to ignore the market open and wait for price to settle. The aud gapped down for the last 2 weeks. 

The euro/$ is coming up to a strong resistance area on the 4 hour chart at 1.4115. The last three or four,  4 hour candles are reversal/indecision. The LMT rightly has the pair in an uptrend, but I will not go long so near to that price. Wait and see how the market opens. Pullback likely. Then look for reasons to long.

Chf/$ has broken 50% fib on 4 hour chart. Could be on way back down as per long term trend. Be careful around fib lines.

Jpy/$ Potential double bottom at 94.86 area.

Take a look at the other pairs. Learn to look for clues yourself. Lots of them are at double top/bottoms/support resistance lines.

Having said all of the above, alex sent me a staement from last week. If you had just taken all the LMT signals, you would have made good pips. 73% wins to 27% losses in difficult markets is a hell of an achievement for a semi automated system.

To find out more about the LMT Forex Formula, Click on the link below;

Free Forex Strategies

Comments (3)

In the current topsy turvey currency markets it is difficult to know which forex strategies are most likely to work or not.  The experienced forex trader has a number of different currency trading strategies he or she will follow. Often the best plan is to simply walk away until the markets resume a tradeable trend.

I have 3 or 4 fx strategies that I have found that enable me to continue trading through the different market phases. All markets go through cycles. January to mid march I made more than 3000 pips from my own 4 hour system. Suddenly mid to late march the markets changed and it became unreliable and then un-tradeable.

I then went back to a simple 15 minute strategy that i have had success with in the past. I really don’t like trading 15 minute charts and yet April 2009 was my best month ever in my 5 year forex career. I made over 1800 pips, many of the trades posted live on twitter. Like to know the strategy ?  Send no money now ! This forex winning system is free, on the house;

Asian Break out forex strategy

Most forex strategies revolve around support and resistance. Price either bounces off previous areas or breaks through. Fx traders are looking at these areas to see how price reacts and look for clues as to where the price is going next.

This can be on any fx chart; 5 minute through to weekly. There are numerous examples of this here on the blog, mainly referring to trades on 4 hour charts (my preferred time frame).

This strategy that I am going to show you is very simple and relies upon the asian (tokyo) session being relatively quiet (it is most of the time). The price of a pair often bounces between 2 horizontal lines, above and below price;

$/chf trapped between 2 horizontal lines during asian session

$/chf trapped between 2 horizontal lines during asian session

As you can see in the diagram above the chf has been trapped in a tight (30 pip) overnight range. The average daily move on the chf in the last few months has been 150 pips. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that at some point (London forex market open or just before is the normal time) the price of this pair is going to set off up or down for a possible 120 pips.

The London open or the hour before is usually the catalyst for this movement. What we need to lok for is a break through one of these trend lines AND A PULLBACK. Eight times out of ten, price will break through this overnight range and then pullback inside. If you dive in at the 1st sign of a break you will lose nearly every time. I have been there, believe me !

Entry is critical on this type of trade. Where you enter depends on your risk tolerance. Under normal circumstances I would take the trade from the pullback to the 34/55 exponential moving averages (the top arrow in the following diagram). If you are new to these emas, check out the free forex lessons on the main site www.forex-fxtrader.com)
The beauty of entering here is that you would only need to place your stop 15 pips away (just above the asian overnight high). Therefore you have a risk reward of 15 pips to gain a potential 120 !
Swiss France breaks out of overnight asian range

Swiss France breaks out of overnight asian range

However, the reason i used this particular example is that price throughout the night failed to break the (green) 200 ema.

I never take a break out trade that is near to the 200ema.
So on this occasion I would need to look for entry after the break of the 200ema.
Either a pullback, which is my preferred entry or a move 5 pips below the closed candle that did break the 200ema ie the 2nd arrow on the chart.
Again the risk reward is excellent. I would place my stop 20 pips away – just above the 34/55 emas with a potential gain of 100+ pips.
This particular break out moved 200+ pips in total. Unfortunately I wasn’t trading and missed it.
There are lots of other rules and variations to the above. I will update this article at a later date. however those of you who have joined the traders secret library have access to an article there that goes into much greater detail.
Go to the trading techniques page (there are over a 100 techniques on this awesome site), click on range break outs. The gentleman is a more conservative trade than I am, but he gives you much more rules and a more detailed strategy there.
The traders secret library/Surefire challenge is one of the few forex products that I recommend. This site is, in my opinion, the best forex educational site on the internet. If you haven’t  seen it before (the sales page is too “hyped” for me and nearly put me off joining, but I am glad that i did). click on the link below;

Traders Secret Library/Surefire Challenge

Safe to go Back into the forex Markets Yet ?

Comments (19)

Hi, This is an update to the post earlier in the week advising my LMT Forex Followers not to trade until the current market turmoil settles down. My advice, nay insistance ! is continue to stay away. As you can clearly see in todays 4 hour Forex Chart of the aud ( I could have used loads of similar examples) price is shooting up and down within the same candle).

The wise trader simply walks away and lives to fight another day.

There is clearly no trend at the moment. These “spikes” are tearing through fx traders stop losses and will wipe out 1000′s of accounts of those who continue to trade through this extremely difficult (usually short) period of time.

The profits we have had with the LMT in the last month have been nothing less than spectacular. I have been trading Forex for over 5 years now and the current market conditions do not come along very often (thankfully).

The LMT is a trend following system that works great when there is a trend. We actually need this weeks big moves because when they settle down a new trend will start and we can catch it near the beginning and ride it a long way for BIG , low risk Profits.

The secret to successful forex trading is knowing when to stay out of the markets.I strongly recommend you leave them alone until this sorts itself out.

The beauty of forex trading is you can make money when the markets are going up or down, but not when they are going sideways.

In the current chaos and uncertainty let the gamblers fight it out amongst themselves. We the intelligent, shrewd traders will stroll back in and sweep up once the dust has settled. I keep telling you that we can get rich in forex, but slowly.

So what is going on and what started all this ?

Most of the the currencies that we are trading have just enjoyed 4 to 6 months of steady, trending movement. Had we been trading with the LMT since the turn of the year we would have made a lot of money by now. It will return, and very soon, don’t worry. Markets always trend longer term.

It is quiet normal after a period of sustained movement for the markets to stop for a “breather” whilst traders decide where the prices are going to go next. The same principle rules the stock market.

Added to this there has been a lot of fundamental news this last week or so. Gbp negative news for example, followed by $ negative. The market is now trying to decide whose economy is in the biggest mess ! Lots of pairs look as though they might be rolling over (think of an aircraft carrier turning around – a long and painfully slow manoeuver).

Lots of pairs are still on the verge of changing direction or resuming their current trend. Some are trending down on the 4 hour chart and up on the daily. The reason for this is that the trend is based upon the next time frame above. Therefore the daily chart is based on the weekly which takes ages to change.

Take a look at the following example of cable (gbp/$) on the 4 hour and daily charts respectively. The Gbp is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour charts. Price has hit the top trend line on a number of occasions and similarly the bottom.

cable is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour chart

cable is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour chart

The more experienced trader could try to trade even these markets by simply selling near the top of the trend with a stop just the other size of the trend line. Vice versa for a buy from the bottom line. The problem is the size of some of the spikes will just wipe out the trade. Notice the shapes of some of the candles that have rejected.

Now look at the same currency pair on the daily chart;

cable on fx daily chart is clearly in an uptrend

cable on fx daily chart is clearly in an uptrend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
What is extremely interesting to me is where price is now. The arrow is pointing to where the 4 hour and the daily trend lines meet. This area is critical. If price starts to go back up from here we could be at the bottom of  a major move upwards for 100′s of pips (possibly a 1000 to the top trend line).

The other option is that if price was to break & close below here we could be looking at a major change of direction. Either way there are a lots of pips to come. Don’t be hasty.Spend the next few days reading and learning as much
as you can. I will let you know when i think its safe to get back in.

This weekend I will provide you with detailed analysis of all the pairs. Where they are now and where I calculate they are going to go next.

To all our success, marc

If you would like to know more about the LMT Forex Formula Click the link Below. Those who join the LMT (low maintenace forex trading system) from this site receive regular free updates, support and advice

LMT Trade Plan Week 15th June & Results

Comments (14)
Last week I received over 40 LMT Forex Signals including 12 off the daily charts. I personally took 12 trades, all of which were winners. Some only hit the 1st target and pulled back and took out the 2nd lot at entry, but as I have explained often, I have found this to be the best way to trade the LMT profitably.

Update: Sorry missed it there is a 4 signal on aud when market opens later in about 5 hours time on forex meta

I open 2 trades (divide your stake in half). I close the 1st trade at the 1st target for a profit & then move the stop on the 2nd lot to entry. This makes sure I bank at least some profit from the trade but then have a risk free chance at a much bigger move with the 2nd part of the trade. Risk free trading is nirvana for forex traders !

My note taking has been atrocious this last few weeks due to all the emails and admin to do with the blog. Whilst at the same time trying to trade my own accounts (+ daughters micro account)!

Therefore some of the signal TIMES that I state below may be wrong. I did get a signal but I am not 100% sure of the times.
Please don’t email me saying that “I cant see the wednesday 20.00 hour signal on my charts”, because I might be wrong ! I am trying to implement a better, more accurate system for this coming week.

I will try to find the time to post more regularly during the week and wherever possible before the close of the daily candle my thoughts on what might happen, which trades are none starters and which of the possibles are most likely to be the best to take.

I have had days when 6/7 trades have come at once. if i had waited until they arrived i would not have had time to get many trades placed before price moved. as Isaid in one of the articles below it is vital in forex that you plan the trade ahead and then trade the plan.

The important part is there were over 40 signals (including12 daily) off the 2 platforms.

All times are actual times I received them BST = Gmt +1 (not what platform says)
Monday 8th 6.00 am Forex meta: euro, chf, jpy,aud,nzd,cad
7.00 am Alpari uk: jpy,nzd,cad
Tuesday 9th Daily : Forex Meta gbp,euro,chf,jpy,aud,gbp/yen
I also had 4 hour signals (not sure time): euro/yen, aud/yen, nzd/$ Daily : Alpari uk: Chf, cad,gbp/yen, euro, gbp
Wednesday 4 hour Forex meta: 6.00 am jpy. 10.00 am: euro/cad
14.00 chf,cad,euro,euro/gbp 18.00: nzd, aud
Alpari uk: 15.00 nzd, aud, chf, euro, euro/gbp
Daily Forex meta: Gbp/yen
Thursday Forex meta : 6.00 am gbp, aud/jpy, aud * ( a friend of mine in mexico on same platform at exact same time had 2 extra signals here)
Alpari 15.00 euro7yen, aud/$
Friday Forex meta 06.00 am: jpy. 10.00 gbp/yen
18.00 DO NOT TAKE THESE TRADES LATE FRIDAY AS PER The LMT RULES: euro/gbp, nzd/$, gbp,aud/jpy, gbp/yen<br>
I made over 650 pips this week, JUST from the LMT. One of you, Rob, made 820. He had never made that many in 3 months before! I am trying to find some kind of way to verify my pips total for the doubters amongst you. My trades are spread over 3 accounts.
My priority at the moment is to make a living/pips and keep up to date with the support. But I am getting better organised, just bear with me
As i pointed out in this article http://forex-fxtrader.com/If-Its-Raining LMT-Pips-Where-Did-Mine-Go-.html, if you are not getting the same number of signals, you need to copy what i am doing. Forex meta is obviously giving me a lot more signals at the moment.

Simply download another free metatrader platform from forex meta and run 2 at the same time.

Last week I posted an article showing you how you can add fibonacci numbers to your charts and use them to give you clues where price is likely to reverse/stop after a major move:
http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/Forex-Trends-&-Double-Bottoms.html. It is important that you learn this. This worked amazingly well on numerous pairs this week. See the euro/$ example below

See how pice pulled back EXACTLY to the 61.6% fib line before resuming its downward direction

See how price pulled back EXACTLY to the 61.8% fib line before resuming its downward direction

The following $/yen example is even better. Remember I said that the more indications you have that price is going to head in a different direction the better. Here we had price rebounding off a 50% fib line (standard fib trade) at the same time as an lmt signal.

$/yen example of fibonacci move on 4 hour forex chart

$/yen example of fibonacci move on 4 hour forex chart

The week ahead. Trade plan week commencing 15th June 2009

This research is taken from forex meta charts. This has taken me 5 hours today and my wife is going nuts. You need to learn to do this for yourselves. It is also more detailed than you need. But hopefully it gives you an idea of the planning and thought processes that go through successful forex traders minds.

gbp/$ No. There is a quadruple top on the 4 hour chart. Price could move sideways for a few days. We need price to either break through for continued direction or bounce off for a pullback to give an entry late in the week

euro/$. There is the possibility of a trade in the next few days. Keep your eye on it. Price currently stuck between 1.4133 & 1.3930 area

chf, jpy/$, aud, NO

euro/yen Possible tuesday. But lots of rejection 138.00 area/sideways at moment

gbp/yen NO, but broke through double top at 160.65 area. We need a pullback

Aud/yen same as above, broke top at 79.50 area

cad & euro cad. I am still avoiding at the moment

Euro/gbp. possible pullback up if mondays candle closes green. Will be against the trend on a daily, but could give us a 4 hour signal

$/yen has no signal, but price broke above 200ema on daily at 98.00 area. Various yen pairs as i said above have broken through upwards resistance. We could see lots of movement this week, BUT stick to your lmt rules.

Daily Charts (remember if you only have time to trade the daily charts, check the 4 hour charts at the same time. Sometimes there are signals on the 4 hour that are not on the daily).

If you are here from an invitation from me on the forum at traders secret library or twitter and you would like to receive a copy of my advanced lmt rules and be included in future updates please email me: marc@forex-fxtrader.com


How to Trade the LMT Forex Formula

Comments (44)

Hi, Lots of you made incredible pips last week. Some of you are relatively new to forex and yet are reporting gains of 500/600 pips in a week. Well done. The Lmt formula has been incredibly successful for me for the last 10 days +5000 pips on demo and 1950 on a live micro account.

You will not achieve these results all the time.  These must surely be exceptional. My aim is to make 15/20 pips a day as a minimum. My results this year have been well above this at 50+ per day, but I have been trading for over 5 years. Please do not get carried away.

Stick to the advanced trading rules that I sent you and follow correct money management. I have emailed my followers a cautionary note for how to trade the LMT forex formula this coming week. Things are likely to be a bit tricky for the next few days, make sure you read it !

How to Plan your trades.

I have had lots of questions asking me how do I decide which trades to take and just as important, those to leave alone. As you will have discovered by now, it is not unheard of to get signals on 6 or more pairs all at the same time on the 4 hour charts.

Plan The trade. Trade The Plan

My method for planning my trades is the same on the daily and 4 hours charts. A point to remember; If you are only able to trade the daily charts there is a possiblity of a 4 hour trade even if there isn’t a daily one. Make sure you check the 4 hour charts as well at the close of the daily.

  1. 3o minutes before a candle is due to close go to each chart and look to see which pairs have the possibilty of a trade. Ignore those that won’t qualify due to the rules ie If there haven’t been enough red candles followed by a closing green, then no long trade is possible and vice versa for a short trade.
  2. Have a look at the size of the candles. Is the trend correct etc etc
  3. Lets say we now have 5 possible trades.
  4. Now take the possibles and see which pairs correlate (explained in the advanced rules). For example if there is a possible trade on the NZD/$ and AUD/$, these 2 pairs go in the same direction 80%+ of the time so its almost an identical bet. Similarly the chf and the euro/$ go in the opposite direction 80%+.
    Don’t take them both at the same time. Decide which one has the chance to make the biggest gain; smallish candles preceeding candles, no major psychological level near eg gbp coming up to 2.00 would be less likely to break.
  5. Now we have narrowed it down to 3 possibles from 5.
  6. Wait for the candle to close and the signal to arrive. It is very tempting to get in early before the candle closes and make some extra pips. Don’t do it. I never enter a trade just before the close of a 4 hour candle. Often a candle will race in the opposite direction in the last 5 minutes.
  7. Now we have a signal for 3 pairs. We have already decided which ones we will take (if the signal arrives). Take it. Place your stops and 1st target. Open the other 2 as quickly as possible.
  8. If by the time you have placed the 1st trade the  price has moved more than a few pips on the 2nd and 3rd trades. Leave them alone. What I do is keep watching the 15 minute chart to see if price pulls back to this area. Then get in if it does.  You can also place a forward order to get in at this pre determined price.
  9. Manage the trade by the rules. If the signal says 25 pips profit take 25 from the signal. If you got in 5 pips too late, only take 20.
  10. Take the rest of the day off. If you have made your minimum 20 pips target and stop is to break even on the 2nd. Chill


For those of you in  my LMT support group I have emailed you my analysis for the week ahead. Trade carefully for the next few days whilst some of the pairs decide whether thay are changing direction or just pulling back.

If you would like to know more about the LMT Formula and how to trade it successfully, check out mine and members reviews here;

http://forex-fxtrader.com/blog/?p=389 Those of you who join through links on this site are invited to receive a free copy of my “advanced rules,” trading advice and regular emails and updates. Join Here

 Page 4 of 4 « 1  2  3  4 
Partly powered by CleverPlugins.com