Archive for 'forex signals'

LMT Forex Analysis July 5th 2009

Comments (59)

As I said in the email, most of you are having great success with the LMT (Low Maintenance Forex Trading Formula), simply by following the rules. Being disciplined & using strict money management. If you are happy with that, and more importantly you are making money, stick with it !

I tend to be more cautious, but I have on occasion questioned the LMT for example on a trend. My experience has told me that a pair was heading up, but the LMT has said down. I haven’t taken the trade and guess what the LMT was right more times than I care to remember !

If you just want to trade it “like it says on the box” the best advice I can give you is stick to pairs that are trending in the same direction on the daily and 4 hour charts.

Still caution is not a bad attitude with forex. This week I am a little wary with the gbp, euro & gbp/yen and a few other pairs. If you look on the daily charts there are quite a few pairs that have broken daily trend lines going back many months.

This is usually an indication of a change of trend direction. My best advice again is stick to pairs that are trending in the same direction on both the 4 hour charts as well as the daily and be a little wary of the aforementioned pairs if price is close to strong support and resistance lines.

The gbp especially leads me to believe that it may be on the way down for a few days at least. Take a look at Fig 1, price has clearly broken down through a strong daily trend line that has been in place since March

Fig 1

Cable (gbp/$) break down of daily trend line

Cable (gbp/$) break down of daily trend line

Price broke through, but failed to stay above the 1.6600 area, as per last weeks analysis. There was a very strong reversal candle on the 4 hour and price is currently at a 78.6 fib area. If it breaks down here it could be on its way back down to the 1.6200 area and even as low as 1.6000 area.

I have checked the daily charts on Forex Meta & Alpari UK and I can not see any daily trades that are going to trade at market open tonight. The euro/$ looks like we will have a sell signal on the 4 hour. Wait for market open before entering any trades to avoid gaps.

Many pairs are moving sideways on the daily as well eg euro/cad. Get in the habit of looking for trend lines as well as support and resistance.

Lots of you had an awesome week last week. Some of you not so well, but judging by the emails I get nearly all of you who are not achieving the same results are not sticking to the rules, Deans and my advanced.

Oh no here he goes again ! This system is extremely successful when the market is trending and if you follow the rules.

Here are a cross section of some of the emails I have had last week;

  • Member lost a trade because he put the stop loss 25 pips from where he entered. Wrong. Every trade allows for spread, BUT you need to calculate the stop loss from the CLOSE of the candle that gives the signal NOT from where you enter or even the open of the new candle. Sometimes there is a slight difference between closing price of one and open of another.
  • Member lost because he was trading Gbp/chf. This is not a recommended pair, therefore it is not an lmt trade.
  • Member lost who was trading off the 1 hour charts ” I have been getting reasonable results with it so I went for it on 3 pairs, they all lost”. Trading off a 1 hour chart is Not an lmt trade.
  • Member placed a trade late New York session late friday. Deans rules and my advanced specifically say do not enter trades late on a friday. I had also emailed you all on wednesday recommending not to trade nfp thursday and I explained that friday was likely to be thin due to the USA holidays (most pairs went sideways within small support & resistance lines).
  • Member placed a trade where the preceding candle was more than 1.5 times the stop

Guys, you have in your possession an awesome piece of software. Follow the rules and listen to the advice of myself and some of the other experienced traders who regularly post here on the blog and you WILL win.


Potential 400+ Forex pips gbp Monday

Comments (38)

The gbp/$ could present us with some very good trades on Monday, both with and without the LMT. Take a look at the 4 hour forex chart below. Notice how price has been trapped within a 400 pip range for the last few weeks. 400 pips @ $10 a pip will give you $4000 ! and is a months worth of pips if we can catch this move !

Price has failed to break the upper resistance line of 1.6600 since the 3rd of june (recent high). Price did actually “spike” through to 1.6620 on the 11th of June, but the candle closed back down below.  Price promptly fell back to 1.6200 which has acted as strong support 3 or 4 times.

Fig 1

Gbp/$ trending sideways on 4 hour forex chart

Gbp/$ trending sideways on 4 hour forex chart

Notice how the price at the last bounce back up returned up off the daily trend line which has been supporting price since april (diagonal yellow line). So how do we use this information to grab some of those pips ?

Lots of traders will be sat with orders placed to sell the pair at 1.6600 with a stop above 1.6625 (more conservative may go to 1.6670 recent 3rd june high). If you see that price is turning back down before there, look for reasons to support your theory, fibs, emas rolling over etc- as per the free lessons on the main site. This is not an LMT trade.

For lmt followers do not take a buy signal near to the top resistance line unless price breaks and closes above the 1.6600 resistance line.

However if price falls back to 1.6200/ daily trend line and we get an LMT trade. That would be great.

If price comes back down to the daily trend line (as I write this that would be the 1.6300 area), all of us need to look for reasons to buy with a stop either just the other side of the trend line (look for fibs/emas to help you decide) or more conservatively the other side of the 1.6200 strong support. 1.6180 is the recent low, so below that would be ultra conservative. Adjust your stake accordingly.

The other option is of course that price may break through (up or down). Do not be tempted to dive in. Wait for a candle to close. Often price will break through an area of strong support or resistance. Come back to that line and THEN continue the move. This is known as resistance becoming support or vice versa.

Fig 2

support_and_resistanceThis is the same 4 hour fx chart, just before the move shown in figure 1.

Working from the left, notice how price twice failed to break up through the 1.6200 line & the doji (indecision) candle.

The 6th candle finally breaks & closes above. The very next candle price comes back down and touches the line before continuing back up. That is a pullback. That is where we should enter. Resistance has now become support.

The 2nd arrow shows how price comes back down to this area and  (line is still continuing as support) price bounces back up again. Then we have a red candle that comes down and pierces (but doesn’t close). Finally a candle closes below the line. The next green candle comes back up and touches the line (pullback entry). The support line is now acting as resistance.

This is all basic forex chart tactics. Support and resistance are main areas to look for price to react. The secret is to plan ahead. Be sat waiting, like a bear waiting for a salmon, at just the place you know something is likely to happen.

Hope this helps. Get in the habit of looking in detail at the charts, the week-end is a great time, when the markets are closed, to just sit and go through the different time frames.

Other pairs in brief: I have started to ignore the market open and wait for price to settle. The aud gapped down for the last 2 weeks. 

The euro/$ is coming up to a strong resistance area on the 4 hour chart at 1.4115. The last three or four,  4 hour candles are reversal/indecision. The LMT rightly has the pair in an uptrend, but I will not go long so near to that price. Wait and see how the market opens. Pullback likely. Then look for reasons to long.

Chf/$ has broken 50% fib on 4 hour chart. Could be on way back down as per long term trend. Be careful around fib lines.

Jpy/$ Potential double bottom at 94.86 area.

Take a look at the other pairs. Learn to look for clues yourself. Lots of them are at double top/bottoms/support resistance lines.

Having said all of the above, alex sent me a staement from last week. If you had just taken all the LMT signals, you would have made good pips. 73% wins to 27% losses in difficult markets is a hell of an achievement for a semi automated system.

To find out more about the LMT Forex Formula, Click on the link below;

Safe to go Back into the forex Markets Yet ?

Comments (19)

Hi, This is an update to the post earlier in the week advising my LMT Forex Followers not to trade until the current market turmoil settles down. My advice, nay insistance ! is continue to stay away. As you can clearly see in todays 4 hour Forex Chart of the aud ( I could have used loads of similar examples) price is shooting up and down within the same candle).

The wise trader simply walks away and lives to fight another day.

There is clearly no trend at the moment. These “spikes” are tearing through fx traders stop losses and will wipe out 1000′s of accounts of those who continue to trade through this extremely difficult (usually short) period of time.

The profits we have had with the LMT in the last month have been nothing less than spectacular. I have been trading Forex for over 5 years now and the current market conditions do not come along very often (thankfully).

The LMT is a trend following system that works great when there is a trend. We actually need this weeks big moves because when they settle down a new trend will start and we can catch it near the beginning and ride it a long way for BIG , low risk Profits.

The secret to successful forex trading is knowing when to stay out of the markets.I strongly recommend you leave them alone until this sorts itself out.

The beauty of forex trading is you can make money when the markets are going up or down, but not when they are going sideways.

In the current chaos and uncertainty let the gamblers fight it out amongst themselves. We the intelligent, shrewd traders will stroll back in and sweep up once the dust has settled. I keep telling you that we can get rich in forex, but slowly.

So what is going on and what started all this ?

Most of the the currencies that we are trading have just enjoyed 4 to 6 months of steady, trending movement. Had we been trading with the LMT since the turn of the year we would have made a lot of money by now. It will return, and very soon, don’t worry. Markets always trend longer term.

It is quiet normal after a period of sustained movement for the markets to stop for a “breather” whilst traders decide where the prices are going to go next. The same principle rules the stock market.

Added to this there has been a lot of fundamental news this last week or so. Gbp negative news for example, followed by $ negative. The market is now trying to decide whose economy is in the biggest mess ! Lots of pairs look as though they might be rolling over (think of an aircraft carrier turning around – a long and painfully slow manoeuver).

Lots of pairs are still on the verge of changing direction or resuming their current trend. Some are trending down on the 4 hour chart and up on the daily. The reason for this is that the trend is based upon the next time frame above. Therefore the daily chart is based on the weekly which takes ages to change.

Take a look at the following example of cable (gbp/$) on the 4 hour and daily charts respectively. The Gbp is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour charts. Price has hit the top trend line on a number of occasions and similarly the bottom.

cable is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour chart

cable is clearly in a down trend on the 4 hour chart

The more experienced trader could try to trade even these markets by simply selling near the top of the trend with a stop just the other size of the trend line. Vice versa for a buy from the bottom line. The problem is the size of some of the spikes will just wipe out the trade. Notice the shapes of some of the candles that have rejected.

Now look at the same currency pair on the daily chart;

cable on fx daily chart is clearly in an uptrend

cable on fx daily chart is clearly in an uptrend

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
What is extremely interesting to me is where price is now. The arrow is pointing to where the 4 hour and the daily trend lines meet. This area is critical. If price starts to go back up from here we could be at the bottom of  a major move upwards for 100′s of pips (possibly a 1000 to the top trend line).

The other option is that if price was to break & close below here we could be looking at a major change of direction. Either way there are a lots of pips to come. Don’t be hasty.Spend the next few days reading and learning as much
as you can. I will let you know when i think its safe to get back in.

This weekend I will provide you with detailed analysis of all the pairs. Where they are now and where I calculate they are going to go next.

To all our success, marc

If you would like to know more about the LMT Forex Formula Click the link Below. Those who join the LMT (low maintenace forex trading system) from this site receive regular free updates, support and advice

How to Trade the LMT Forex Formula

Comments (44)

Hi, Lots of you made incredible pips last week. Some of you are relatively new to forex and yet are reporting gains of 500/600 pips in a week. Well done. The Lmt formula has been incredibly successful for me for the last 10 days +5000 pips on demo and 1950 on a live micro account.

You will not achieve these results all the time.  These must surely be exceptional. My aim is to make 15/20 pips a day as a minimum. My results this year have been well above this at 50+ per day, but I have been trading for over 5 years. Please do not get carried away.

Stick to the advanced trading rules that I sent you and follow correct money management. I have emailed my followers a cautionary note for how to trade the LMT forex formula this coming week. Things are likely to be a bit tricky for the next few days, make sure you read it !

How to Plan your trades.

I have had lots of questions asking me how do I decide which trades to take and just as important, those to leave alone. As you will have discovered by now, it is not unheard of to get signals on 6 or more pairs all at the same time on the 4 hour charts.

Plan The trade. Trade The Plan

My method for planning my trades is the same on the daily and 4 hours charts. A point to remember; If you are only able to trade the daily charts there is a possiblity of a 4 hour trade even if there isn’t a daily one. Make sure you check the 4 hour charts as well at the close of the daily.

  1. 3o minutes before a candle is due to close go to each chart and look to see which pairs have the possibilty of a trade. Ignore those that won’t qualify due to the rules ie If there haven’t been enough red candles followed by a closing green, then no long trade is possible and vice versa for a short trade.
  2. Have a look at the size of the candles. Is the trend correct etc etc
  3. Lets say we now have 5 possible trades.
  4. Now take the possibles and see which pairs correlate (explained in the advanced rules). For example if there is a possible trade on the NZD/$ and AUD/$, these 2 pairs go in the same direction 80%+ of the time so its almost an identical bet. Similarly the chf and the euro/$ go in the opposite direction 80%+.
    Don’t take them both at the same time. Decide which one has the chance to make the biggest gain; smallish candles preceeding candles, no major psychological level near eg gbp coming up to 2.00 would be less likely to break.
  5. Now we have narrowed it down to 3 possibles from 5.
  6. Wait for the candle to close and the signal to arrive. It is very tempting to get in early before the candle closes and make some extra pips. Don’t do it. I never enter a trade just before the close of a 4 hour candle. Often a candle will race in the opposite direction in the last 5 minutes.
  7. Now we have a signal for 3 pairs. We have already decided which ones we will take (if the signal arrives). Take it. Place your stops and 1st target. Open the other 2 as quickly as possible.
  8. If by the time you have placed the 1st trade the  price has moved more than a few pips on the 2nd and 3rd trades. Leave them alone. What I do is keep watching the 15 minute chart to see if price pulls back to this area. Then get in if it does.  You can also place a forward order to get in at this pre determined price.
  9. Manage the trade by the rules. If the signal says 25 pips profit take 25 from the signal. If you got in 5 pips too late, only take 20.
  10. Take the rest of the day off. If you have made your minimum 20 pips target and stop is to break even on the 2nd. Chill


For those of you in  my LMT support group I have emailed you my analysis for the week ahead. Trade carefully for the next few days whilst some of the pairs decide whether thay are changing direction or just pulling back.

If you would like to know more about the LMT Formula and how to trade it successfully, check out mine and members reviews here;

http://forex-fxtrader.com/blog/?p=389 Those of you who join through links on this site are invited to receive a free copy of my “advanced rules,” trading advice and regular emails and updates. Join Here

Awesome LMT Trades 1583 pips in 2 days

Comments (43)

Lots of you gained BIG pips today. Jaime reported winning 600+ pips: “Marc let me tell you so far 600 pips on GBPJPY, EURJPY . You hit a HOME RUN w/ this LMT advice.. thank you.”

I made 1017 pips closing fridays trades and 566 today. I earned more money in 2 days than I used to earn in a month and I was still mainly on reduced stakes of $3.30 a pip. My normal stake is well over $10 but caution is best when using a new system.

My trades were; 363 on gbp/yen ( i was up 460 at its highest point), +110 aud/yen (180 high) and +93 euro/yen (160 high) for a total of 566.

I also closed fridays trades for gains of  435 gbp/$ ( was up 212 friday night), 247 Nzd/$ ( 180 friday night) and finally cad +335.  Fridays total therefore was 1017 pips !!

This was gbp/jpy trade monday 1st June 2009

This was gbp/jpy trade monday 1st June 2009

The most important thing now for all of us using the system is to CALM DOWN !

It is very easy to get carried away when you are on a roll in forex. It is vital that you follow the money management rules and never risk more than 2.5% of your trading bank on a single trade.

This is further complicated with the LMT formula as we have 7 pairs that have the $ involved and 3 pairs that are jpy related.  We need to be very careful.

Also, I have had lots of emails and screenshots from members who are getting different signals to me due to variations of time settings on different platforms. I will let you know which platform/time settings that are giving the best results.

In the long run I suspect all should be the same, but I am running 2 metatrader platforms and one is much more successful than the other at the moment.

For those of you who joined LMT through my link, In todays email update I will send out a detailed set of “advanced rules” that you need to follow to make sure that you protect your bank. Which trade signals not to take. How to go forward with the LMT formula.

The Most important rule in forex is Protect your bank

For those of you considering joining the LMT, click on my link below to check it out. Then E mail me a copy of your purchase invoice and you will receive my support and advice to help you get started with this great system. Click on this banner below to find out more;


If you are still not sure read my review and the comments from my followers who have invested in the LMT and are gaining lots of pips !

http://forex-fxtrader.com/blog/?p=389#comments

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