Archive for 'todays forex analysis'

600+ Pips profit from Sundays Video Analysis

Comments (4)

Had you simply traded from my last two weeks daily analysis videos you would now be over 1000 pips in profit in just 8 trading days!! Most of these trades could have been placed Sunday evening and left on auto-pilot!

The more I look at the daily charts, the more I am convinced that this is where my future forex trading lies. If you can get away from the smaller time frames, your forex trading will be much less time consuming, less stressful and will give you lots more time to enjoy yourself.

In my 1st 3 years trading forex I was sat at my computer for up to 12 hours a day!

This weeks Pre Sunday Market Open Video

If you didn’t catch this on Sunday or you just want to refresh your memory, take a look below. See how again I told you to look for activity around the major areas of support & resistance & how you could have placed low risk trades on Sunday evening, with potential big gains.

You could have earned somewhere in the region of 460 pips from the moves on Monday/Tuesday & a futher 200 today.  I predicted the moves on just three pairs: on cable, euro/$ & $/chf,  a gain of over 600 pips for a maximum risk of 150. That is a phenomenal risk/reward ratio.

Below the video is an explanation of where you could have re-entered the gbp/$ again today.

I have banked 60 pips from this trade again Today

and even better my stop was automatically moved to break even with forexexecutorpro on the second lot. The second lot is currently + 80 pips.

The euro/$ is curently +100 pips from todays pullback and the chf + 70 pips.

Please give a star rating to the video/post a comment on you tube. to do this and view the video in higher quality, click on the “you tube” icon bottom right.

Gbp/$ rejects at trend line on daily forex chart again

Gbp/$ rejects at trend line on daily forex chart again

See how price on the far left of the chart broke through the strong support line of recent weeks (as per last weeks videos).

This area of strong support became equally strong resistance.

Price has pulled back three times to this area including todays (right hand arrow). All you needed to do was place a forward order with a small stop of 20/30 pips for large gains.

Mondays candle (the middle arrow of the 3) gave you a possible 250+ pips move.

Todays move (also notice the doji candle for confirmation)  has given me 60 pips on my 1st lot which is now closed and the 2nd lots is currently + 80 pips as I write this 18.00 London time.

gbp/$ reverse on 1 hour forex chart

gbp/$ reverse on 1 hour forex chart

Because I was near my computer I went to look for confirmation on the hourly charts, however had you traded this off the daily charts it was not necessary.

Again price had failed to break the blue daily trend line. We had a doji candle & the yellow lines are macd divergence.

I will save that lesson for another day!

To see previous videos check out our new forum in the “Learn Forex Free Lessons section)” Link above.

I will email you details of my analysis for the week ahead on Sunday. If you are not on my list just fill in the box top left of this page. You will also receive a free copy of my 60 page ebook “How to Trade Forex”,

Regards,

Marc

Forex Analysis for the Week Ahead & Forum is now open

Comments (11)

The forum is now open at last!!! Please find below my forex analysis for the major pairs for the week ahead. This could be a very volatile week with the return of the bigger traders from their summer vacations. What often happens when the big guys get back is that there are sharp moves in price. There is the further complication of monday being a public holiday in the United Kingdom and the small matter of NFP *non farm payrolls- USA unemployment figures released on friday. I explain about NFP and why I dont trade it in the free ebook.

I will keep this brief  today as the video explains everything ^ I need to try add some more content to the forum. Have a Great week, Marc

Forex Daily Signal 25th August

Comments (15)

Apologies to those of you who couldn’t see the videos last night. I have now split the analysis into 2 videos The videos show how you could have both won & lost from yesterdays analysis!!

These videos are some of the best educational presentations I have done (before the event). If you are serious about learning forex, do yourself a favour and watch them all the way through

Video 1 shows you how I had re-entered the NZD/$ on the DAILY chart & why; this trade is currently +90 pips as I write this update.

Video 2 is some of my best video analysis BEFORE the event on a number of pairs. Cable, euro/$, chf & nzd/4 gained over 500 pips from these moves

    How to use support & resistance to look for and where price could go next.

    Please remember this is only an experiment for trading forex from daily charts. I am not putting real money on these trades and nor should you. This is purely educational.

    However had we combined my normal trading method with yesterdays daily analysis there was a potential 500+ pips profit. regards, marc

    Video 1: Result of mondays analysis

    (If you find the videos useful, please add a comment/star rating on you tube)

    Video 2. Todays analysis (This analysis on the gbp/$ alone has gained 200 pips so far today + 300 on euro, chf & nzd/$)

    Webinar

    I mentioned in my previous update that there is a new piece of forex software being released this week that could be invaluable for USA members & LMT owners particularly.

    There are two (limited place) free webinars tomorrow, thursday 27th august.

    Click the Link below to find out more;

    Register for free webinar (limited places)

    Click Here!

How to Trade Forex off Daily Charts (video examples)

Comments (12)

It feels like going back to school today! I havent had such a long holiday for years, but now time to get back to earning some real forex money. I have posted below a couple of videos that outline how the new free forex daily signals experiment should work.
At this point I must stress that under no circumstances should you take trades on a “live” account based around anything in the videos

Their purpose at this early stage is to show you what we will be looking for. I have 5 or 6 different forex strategies that I intend to use, before deciding which are likely to be the best. I will only use a demo account for this & so should you.

I stress in the videos that you need to have lots of patience if you wish to trade forex off the daily charts.

Often there will be no signals for days at a time and then suddenly 4 or 5 will come at once. You need to get into the “mindset” for this. Then we may decide to place an order, based on our analysis, to open a trade if price hits xyz. There willl be times when you get home all excited to see what you have made, only to find that the trade didn’t even open (price went in the opposite direction). Get over it.

This is all part of the psychology that you need to master to be able to trade forex successfully based around daily charts.

What we are aiming for is BIG moves. 200/300/400/500 pip moves are what we are looking for. Similarly the % of successful trades is usually lower when trading daily fx charts, BUT as we are looking for 2+ risk reward ratios we can actually be profitable with a success rate as low as 30%.

The forum WILL be ready within the next few days, thank you for your patience, but my tech guy was on holiday & I wanted to be sure that it is done properly.

The LMT forex formula: Hopefully you followed my advice and kept away from the LMT through out the summer thin markets. The markets should start to trend again over the next few weeks & we will be looking for some more of the fabulous results we enjoyed from this great piece of software mid May to mid July. The success rate was over 80% until the vacation period removed most of the bigger traders and thus the trends. The LMT works great when there is a trend and now to christmas is usually a great trending period. If you would like to check it out, click on the following link. We have 500+ registered LMT traders here on the blog, all willing to share their experiences: http://marc12001.lmtformula.hop.clickbank.net

Heres the first daily forex strategy video;

You can adjust the sound & full screen modes with the buttons either side of the “HD” button on the bottom of the video

How to trade forex- daily charts. monday 24th august. Part 1

How to trade forex- daily charts. monday 24th august. part 2

I need some practise at these and some better software, please bear with me, regards, Marc

Forex & LMT Analysis For Week Ahead

Comments (18)

Had you followed my advice last week you would have caught 300 pips from the cad alone using this method. In last weeks post entitled “forex Trade Examples” I gave you detailed analysis as to how to trade  break outs on the forex 4 hour charts.

In the “Forex Trade Tip” analysis of last week I told you to look out for such a move on the cad. The result if you took my advice was 300 pips on the cad and 130+ on the euro cad.

This is what I had to say about the Cad – “There is a doji candle on the daily chart which signifies indecision. Price has now entered a tight range, which is normal after a big move such as last weeks. If breaks out upwards, could go to 1.1400 area or down to 1.0800″. Price broke out and down and hit a low of 1.0792 !

cad_break_out

There was also an LMT signal on the wednesday morning that would have got you in for a 200 pip move.

In the current markets lots of pairs are at trend lines as well as horizontal support and resistance lines.

I would strongly advise you not to take trades that are very near to these areas, as they will quite possibly bounce off. The more conservative way to trade is wait for confirmed breaks of the 4 hour charts.

A confirmed break is when a candle breaks & closes through a line.

The euro cad also gave us an identical trade, this time for a 130 pip gain. This was also signalled by the LMT (low maintenance forex trading) software that we use.

euro_cad_break_and_lmt signal The red arrow shows where I entered the trade at a confirmed break of the support line.

The vertical red line is where the lmt gave a sell signal.

Had you simply entered the lmt trade you would have made 130 pips.

In thin markets that is an amazing achievement from a simple piece of software.

The Forex week ahead

You need to look very carefully at support and resistance areas this week. Lots of pairs are struggling at recent highs and lows. Take a look for example at the following euro/$ chart

Price has failed to break recent highs all week

Price has failed to break recent highs all week

As you can see, price has failed to break (and close) through the horizontal resistance line all week. Be very careful going long here, even if you get an LMT signal.

Even if it does break up here, the recent May high was only 1.4300 area.

Price is now being squeezed between the horizontal resistance line and the diagonal support line, to form a triangle pattern. The nearer price gets to the the point of the triangle, the more explosive the break out is in either direction.  If price broke down here the 1st target would be 1.4000 area again. If it breaks that then 1.3850 will be next.

Due to family commitments (getting ready for our holidays) I haven’t time to analyse all the pairs for you today. Look closely at the euro example. There are similar set ups on many of the pairs. If you are trading the LMT stick to the advanced rules and if you are combining the 2 methods look for breaks of support and resistance. good luck with your trading.

If you would like to trade forex successfully with us here on the blog, we have more than 1500 registered traders, and 16.500+ on twitter following both my advice, and sharing advice with each other.

The following is concerning the LMT forex formula. More than 500 of us here trade this system. It is the BEST, SIMPLEST,CHEAPEST forex trading system I have found in almost 6 years of trading forex. Click on the coloured banner below to find out more, regards, marc walton

These are the results (as supplied by Alex) for june 23rd 2009 to 21st july. For summer time thin markets these results are simply astounding.

Daily H4
Broker total won lost win/total total won lost win/total
GMT1 8 3 5 38% 91 73 18 80%
GMT2 7 4 3 57% 95 74 21 78%
GMT3 7 4 3 57% 85 69 16 81%
total/avg 22 11 11 51% 271 216 55 80%



Forex Trade Tip of The Week.

Comments (14)

Caution is still the best advice I can give if you intend to trade in this summer lull period. Very few of the forex pairs are trending and those that are, are simply moving sideways in tight ranges. I explained in yesterdays update “Forex trade examples” how you can use break outs from these trends for devastating profits.

Those of you who are trading the LMT Forex formula I still recommend that you only take trades when the trend is the same on the 4 hour & daily charts. The following analysis is not LMT related. If you are new to forex just follow the rules and keep it simple. Don’t panic with all this technical mumbo jumbo! But if you want to learn more about forex then read on !

There are trades to be had this week and I have posted below my analysis for 7 or 8 pairs including my “forex tip of the week” (please let me be right) ! I suspect that lots of the pairs may be due a pullback this week as many have rejected at recent highs or lows

Forex Trade Tip of the Week – Head & Shoulders Pattern

There is a classic head & shoulders pattern building on one of the 4 hour charts for the week ahead.

A head and shoulders pattern signifies that there is a major reversal imminent in the price of a forex pair. I am convinced that this particular pair is fundamentally due a fall as well.

The most significant head and shoulders pattern is in a weekly or monthly or daily charts. Head and shoulders on lower time frame can be unreliable. Anything less than a 4 hour forex chart and I ignore them.

What is a Head & Shoulders Forex Pattern?

The name of this pattern is given after its shape. This formation looks like, guess what, a head and shoulders. It consists of three consecutive rallies all based in the same support line named neckline. The two shoulders should be almost equal height and the “head” should be the highest. The great thing is that it gives you a specific entry point, stop loss point and target.

Fig 1. Euro/gbp 4 hour forex chart

euro_gbp_head_and_shoulders

This is a classic example forming of a forex head & shoulders pattern.

You may enter the market during either a break of the “neckline” with the stop above the nearest “shoulder” or more conservative traders look for a pullback/retest of the broken neckline with a much smaller stop just the other side of the neckline.

Price target is the length between top of head and neckline which in this case is 150 pips below @ approximately 0.8430/0.8400 which coincidentally are recent lows for this pair. If price breaks & closes back above the neckline the pattern is void.

A more aggressive entry is to start taking parts of the trades as the price falls. For example I have taken 25% of the trade at 0.8500 area (price could pullback to 0.857o area (left shoulder), I would look to short 25% again there. If price break above the 0.8700 area then the pattern is void and we should look for reasons to long.

If you are trading the LMT then the conservative way is to wait for the trends to turn back down on both time-frames. If that point coincides with a break of the neckline then that would be an extremely strong signal for me.

Analysis of other forex pairs for the week ahead

The euro/$ The last 3 days this pair has been range bound. Moving sideways in a tight range between 1.4050 and 1.4150. It may continue like this for a few days, but look for confirmed break outs (on the 4 hour charts) as per my explanation in yesterdays “forex trade examples” post.

If it breaks up recent high was 1.4300 and then dec 2008′s high was 1.4400. If it breaks down 1st target area would be 1.3850, 2nd 1.3700

Cable (gbp/$) There was a “shooting star” candle pattern on the daily charts. I will explain this in a later post. The thing you need to know is that this pattern usually signals a change in direction, ie down in this case. It is range bound as well between 1.6300 and 1.6465, so again look for breaks here in either direction.

Aud- Almost an engulfing candle on the daily chart, suggests pullback, ie price to fall. Price again is stuck in a tight range, look to trade break outs in either direction.

Cad – There is a doji candle on the daily chart which signifies indecision. Price has now entered a tight range, which is normal after a big move such as last weeks. If breaks out upwards, could go to 1.1400 area or down to 1.0800

Euro/cad- Similar scenario to cad

$/yen Near a double top at 94.50. Dont take longs here unless it breaks and closes above. It looks bullish to me but with limited upside (there are lots of emas and things in 95.00 area that would be difficult to break). If it does break 95.00 though, next target would be 97.00 area.

Lots of the experts are predicting a fall to 90.00 area. Best advice is probably leave alone this week unless there is a major move and you can catch a pullback.

Euro/yen, Gbp/yen These two are both in a tight range, again look for confirmed break outs on the 4 hour charts.

If you would like to trade forex successfully with us here on the blog, we have more than 1500 registered traders, and 15.000+ on twitter following both my advice, and sharing advice with each other.

The following is concerning the LMT forex formula. More than 500 of us here trade this system. It is the BEST, SIMPLEST,CHEAPEST forex trading system I have found in almost 6 years of trading forex. Click on the coloured banner below to find out more, regards, marc walton


LMT Forex: Trick for Extra Profit on Trades

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LMT Forex Formula Update & Trick to Make Extra Profit on  Low Risk Trades
(this works on non LMT trades as well).

One of you sent me a link last week to a site where the site owners post videos of  LMT forex formula (Low Maintenance Forex trading) trades that they are making and they have made hardly any money in over a month. Why?

Because they are only hoping to catch the big moves. They don’t take anything off at the 1st profit target and then go on to show on video how they get taken out every-time. Yet they are trying to make commission promoting the product!

In the current markets I find their trading tactics (and especially their marketing methods – “buy this, see how we lose all the time”) rather strange to say the least!

Personally I have a lot of success with the LMT because I split the trade in half and take the profit off the 1st lot and move the stop to entry on the second.

The only problem has been in the last week I have had quite a few trades that made the 1st target. Pulled  back and took out my stop on the 2nd and then reversed and  went back the way i wanted for 100+ pips.

There is a middle way to this that you might like to try when the markets are trending sideways and or are whip sawing, up and down quickly;

Split the trade in half as per my normal recommendation. When the price hits the 1st target (which is more often than not on a 4 hour fx trade) for example  25 pips profit. Move your stop to -25 pips of your entry.

For example. Short the gbp at 1.6200 with 1st target 25 pips at 1.6175. Once price has hit & taken your 1st profit, move the stop to 1.6225. This way you give the 2nd trade more room to breathe. You now have a better chance at a big move and even if you get taken out you lost nothing !

I used to do this all the time, but I really do not like opening trades to be taken out at break even. In the current markets though it is certainly worth considering.

If you want to use this method I would recommend that you only do it on trades that look most likely to go a long way.  Obviously for this you need some discretion.

Things to look for are fibonacci lines. Double tops or bottoms. Previous support and resistance lines etc. If you are new to forex and the LMT don’t worry about it. Trade it the way it comes out of the box. If you can keep picking up 20 pips here and 20 pips there it soon starts to add up.

If you want to learn more about these indicators check out the free lessons in the Free Fx Training Section here on the blog.

Advanced Rules Update

I have a few new rules to add to the advanced rules (if you don’t have a copy email me marc@forex-fxtrader.com). I will do this later in the week, but one that I have been recommending to my followers lately is to only take the trade if the trend is in the same same direction on both the 4 hour and daily fx charts.

If you want to be ultra conservative, you might go so far as to say only if the trends are the same same on both times and more than 1 platform.

How Good is The LMT Forex Formula

I posted this reply to Rich on the blog the other day just to show what I mean and how incredible the LMT is;

“Rich, re your question about lmts current performance in non trending markets. the fact that it is still making pips in the current markets is simply awesome.

I read the following on Bloomberg July 6 (Bloomberg) —

FX Concepts Inc., the world’s largest currency hedge fund, says it lost 5.4 percent in this year’s first five months. John W. Henry & Co.’s foreign-exchange fund told investors it lost 2 percent.

Both use computer models to spot currency trends and, along with other momentum chasers, are getting hammered by this year’s lack of clear direction as the markets are pulled in opposing directions”

I would strongly suggest to their shareholders that they buy a copy of the LMT forex formula (a few $million less than their “trend following computer models”)!

In the same period the LMT forex formula made 3000 pips on the gbp/$ alone! Take a look back on the daily charts on the gbp. Between March and late June it trended straight up 3000 pips ! (you would have been taken out & re-entered 3 times with deans rules).  If you would like to join the LMT and receive free support and advice click on the following, colourful banner;

gp_daily_trend_2009

Potential 400+ Forex pips gbp Monday

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The gbp/$ could present us with some very good trades on Monday, both with and without the LMT. Take a look at the 4 hour forex chart below. Notice how price has been trapped within a 400 pip range for the last few weeks. 400 pips @ $10 a pip will give you $4000 ! and is a months worth of pips if we can catch this move !

Price has failed to break the upper resistance line of 1.6600 since the 3rd of june (recent high). Price did actually “spike” through to 1.6620 on the 11th of June, but the candle closed back down below.  Price promptly fell back to 1.6200 which has acted as strong support 3 or 4 times.

Fig 1

Gbp/$ trending sideways on 4 hour forex chart

Gbp/$ trending sideways on 4 hour forex chart

Notice how the price at the last bounce back up returned up off the daily trend line which has been supporting price since april (diagonal yellow line). So how do we use this information to grab some of those pips ?

Lots of traders will be sat with orders placed to sell the pair at 1.6600 with a stop above 1.6625 (more conservative may go to 1.6670 recent 3rd june high). If you see that price is turning back down before there, look for reasons to support your theory, fibs, emas rolling over etc- as per the free lessons on the main site. This is not an LMT trade.

For lmt followers do not take a buy signal near to the top resistance line unless price breaks and closes above the 1.6600 resistance line.

However if price falls back to 1.6200/ daily trend line and we get an LMT trade. That would be great.

If price comes back down to the daily trend line (as I write this that would be the 1.6300 area), all of us need to look for reasons to buy with a stop either just the other side of the trend line (look for fibs/emas to help you decide) or more conservatively the other side of the 1.6200 strong support. 1.6180 is the recent low, so below that would be ultra conservative. Adjust your stake accordingly.

The other option is of course that price may break through (up or down). Do not be tempted to dive in. Wait for a candle to close. Often price will break through an area of strong support or resistance. Come back to that line and THEN continue the move. This is known as resistance becoming support or vice versa.

Fig 2

support_and_resistanceThis is the same 4 hour fx chart, just before the move shown in figure 1.

Working from the left, notice how price twice failed to break up through the 1.6200 line & the doji (indecision) candle.

The 6th candle finally breaks & closes above. The very next candle price comes back down and touches the line before continuing back up. That is a pullback. That is where we should enter. Resistance has now become support.

The 2nd arrow shows how price comes back down to this area and  (line is still continuing as support) price bounces back up again. Then we have a red candle that comes down and pierces (but doesn’t close). Finally a candle closes below the line. The next green candle comes back up and touches the line (pullback entry). The support line is now acting as resistance.

This is all basic forex chart tactics. Support and resistance are main areas to look for price to react. The secret is to plan ahead. Be sat waiting, like a bear waiting for a salmon, at just the place you know something is likely to happen.

Hope this helps. Get in the habit of looking in detail at the charts, the week-end is a great time, when the markets are closed, to just sit and go through the different time frames.

Other pairs in brief: I have started to ignore the market open and wait for price to settle. The aud gapped down for the last 2 weeks. 

The euro/$ is coming up to a strong resistance area on the 4 hour chart at 1.4115. The last three or four,  4 hour candles are reversal/indecision. The LMT rightly has the pair in an uptrend, but I will not go long so near to that price. Wait and see how the market opens. Pullback likely. Then look for reasons to long.

Chf/$ has broken 50% fib on 4 hour chart. Could be on way back down as per long term trend. Be careful around fib lines.

Jpy/$ Potential double bottom at 94.86 area.

Take a look at the other pairs. Learn to look for clues yourself. Lots of them are at double top/bottoms/support resistance lines.

Having said all of the above, alex sent me a staement from last week. If you had just taken all the LMT signals, you would have made good pips. 73% wins to 27% losses in difficult markets is a hell of an achievement for a semi automated system.

To find out more about the LMT Forex Formula, Click on the link below;

LMT Trade Plan Week 15th June & Results

Comments (14)
Last week I received over 40 LMT Forex Signals including 12 off the daily charts. I personally took 12 trades, all of which were winners. Some only hit the 1st target and pulled back and took out the 2nd lot at entry, but as I have explained often, I have found this to be the best way to trade the LMT profitably.

Update: Sorry missed it there is a 4 signal on aud when market opens later in about 5 hours time on forex meta

I open 2 trades (divide your stake in half). I close the 1st trade at the 1st target for a profit & then move the stop on the 2nd lot to entry. This makes sure I bank at least some profit from the trade but then have a risk free chance at a much bigger move with the 2nd part of the trade. Risk free trading is nirvana for forex traders !

My note taking has been atrocious this last few weeks due to all the emails and admin to do with the blog. Whilst at the same time trying to trade my own accounts (+ daughters micro account)!

Therefore some of the signal TIMES that I state below may be wrong. I did get a signal but I am not 100% sure of the times.
Please don’t email me saying that “I cant see the wednesday 20.00 hour signal on my charts”, because I might be wrong ! I am trying to implement a better, more accurate system for this coming week.

I will try to find the time to post more regularly during the week and wherever possible before the close of the daily candle my thoughts on what might happen, which trades are none starters and which of the possibles are most likely to be the best to take.

I have had days when 6/7 trades have come at once. if i had waited until they arrived i would not have had time to get many trades placed before price moved. as Isaid in one of the articles below it is vital in forex that you plan the trade ahead and then trade the plan.

The important part is there were over 40 signals (including12 daily) off the 2 platforms.

All times are actual times I received them BST = Gmt +1 (not what platform says)
Monday 8th 6.00 am Forex meta: euro, chf, jpy,aud,nzd,cad
7.00 am Alpari uk: jpy,nzd,cad
Tuesday 9th Daily : Forex Meta gbp,euro,chf,jpy,aud,gbp/yen
I also had 4 hour signals (not sure time): euro/yen, aud/yen, nzd/$ Daily : Alpari uk: Chf, cad,gbp/yen, euro, gbp
Wednesday 4 hour Forex meta: 6.00 am jpy. 10.00 am: euro/cad
14.00 chf,cad,euro,euro/gbp 18.00: nzd, aud
Alpari uk: 15.00 nzd, aud, chf, euro, euro/gbp
Daily Forex meta: Gbp/yen
Thursday Forex meta : 6.00 am gbp, aud/jpy, aud * ( a friend of mine in mexico on same platform at exact same time had 2 extra signals here)
Alpari 15.00 euro7yen, aud/$
Friday Forex meta 06.00 am: jpy. 10.00 gbp/yen
18.00 DO NOT TAKE THESE TRADES LATE FRIDAY AS PER The LMT RULES: euro/gbp, nzd/$, gbp,aud/jpy, gbp/yen<br>
I made over 650 pips this week, JUST from the LMT. One of you, Rob, made 820. He had never made that many in 3 months before! I am trying to find some kind of way to verify my pips total for the doubters amongst you. My trades are spread over 3 accounts.
My priority at the moment is to make a living/pips and keep up to date with the support. But I am getting better organised, just bear with me
As i pointed out in this article http://forex-fxtrader.com/If-Its-Raining LMT-Pips-Where-Did-Mine-Go-.html, if you are not getting the same number of signals, you need to copy what i am doing. Forex meta is obviously giving me a lot more signals at the moment.

Simply download another free metatrader platform from forex meta and run 2 at the same time.

Last week I posted an article showing you how you can add fibonacci numbers to your charts and use them to give you clues where price is likely to reverse/stop after a major move:
http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/Forex-Trends-&-Double-Bottoms.html. It is important that you learn this. This worked amazingly well on numerous pairs this week. See the euro/$ example below

See how pice pulled back EXACTLY to the 61.6% fib line before resuming its downward direction

See how price pulled back EXACTLY to the 61.8% fib line before resuming its downward direction

The following $/yen example is even better. Remember I said that the more indications you have that price is going to head in a different direction the better. Here we had price rebounding off a 50% fib line (standard fib trade) at the same time as an lmt signal.

$/yen example of fibonacci move on 4 hour forex chart

$/yen example of fibonacci move on 4 hour forex chart

The week ahead. Trade plan week commencing 15th June 2009

This research is taken from forex meta charts. This has taken me 5 hours today and my wife is going nuts. You need to learn to do this for yourselves. It is also more detailed than you need. But hopefully it gives you an idea of the planning and thought processes that go through successful forex traders minds.

gbp/$ No. There is a quadruple top on the 4 hour chart. Price could move sideways for a few days. We need price to either break through for continued direction or bounce off for a pullback to give an entry late in the week

euro/$. There is the possibility of a trade in the next few days. Keep your eye on it. Price currently stuck between 1.4133 & 1.3930 area

chf, jpy/$, aud, NO

euro/yen Possible tuesday. But lots of rejection 138.00 area/sideways at moment

gbp/yen NO, but broke through double top at 160.65 area. We need a pullback

Aud/yen same as above, broke top at 79.50 area

cad & euro cad. I am still avoiding at the moment

Euro/gbp. possible pullback up if mondays candle closes green. Will be against the trend on a daily, but could give us a 4 hour signal

$/yen has no signal, but price broke above 200ema on daily at 98.00 area. Various yen pairs as i said above have broken through upwards resistance. We could see lots of movement this week, BUT stick to your lmt rules.

Daily Charts (remember if you only have time to trade the daily charts, check the 4 hour charts at the same time. Sometimes there are signals on the 4 hour that are not on the daily).

If you are here from an invitation from me on the forum at traders secret library or twitter and you would like to receive a copy of my advanced lmt rules and be included in future updates please email me: marc@forex-fxtrader.com


Awesome LMT Trades 1583 pips in 2 days

Comments (43)

Lots of you gained BIG pips today. Jaime reported winning 600+ pips: “Marc let me tell you so far 600 pips on GBPJPY, EURJPY . You hit a HOME RUN w/ this LMT advice.. thank you.”

I made 1017 pips closing fridays trades and 566 today. I earned more money in 2 days than I used to earn in a month and I was still mainly on reduced stakes of $3.30 a pip. My normal stake is well over $10 but caution is best when using a new system.

My trades were; 363 on gbp/yen ( i was up 460 at its highest point), +110 aud/yen (180 high) and +93 euro/yen (160 high) for a total of 566.

I also closed fridays trades for gains of  435 gbp/$ ( was up 212 friday night), 247 Nzd/$ ( 180 friday night) and finally cad +335.  Fridays total therefore was 1017 pips !!

This was gbp/jpy trade monday 1st June 2009

This was gbp/jpy trade monday 1st June 2009

The most important thing now for all of us using the system is to CALM DOWN !

It is very easy to get carried away when you are on a roll in forex. It is vital that you follow the money management rules and never risk more than 2.5% of your trading bank on a single trade.

This is further complicated with the LMT formula as we have 7 pairs that have the $ involved and 3 pairs that are jpy related.  We need to be very careful.

Also, I have had lots of emails and screenshots from members who are getting different signals to me due to variations of time settings on different platforms. I will let you know which platform/time settings that are giving the best results.

In the long run I suspect all should be the same, but I am running 2 metatrader platforms and one is much more successful than the other at the moment.

For those of you who joined LMT through my link, In todays email update I will send out a detailed set of “advanced rules” that you need to follow to make sure that you protect your bank. Which trade signals not to take. How to go forward with the LMT formula.

The Most important rule in forex is Protect your bank

For those of you considering joining the LMT, click on my link below to check it out. Then E mail me a copy of your purchase invoice and you will receive my support and advice to help you get started with this great system. Click on this banner below to find out more;


If you are still not sure read my review and the comments from my followers who have invested in the LMT and are gaining lots of pips !

http://forex-fxtrader.com/blog/?p=389#comments

6th May Results + 118 pips

Comments (5)
In April most of my 1800+ pips were made from breaks of asian high and low ranges. This week it has been bounces off 200 emas+ lots of other reasons. This is not my normal method of trading. I am adapting to the market as I see it on an almost daily basis at the moment.
NEVER trade just off a 200ema rejection. Look for lots of clues on your forex charts over lots of timeframes (see the aud trade further down this page for an example of a trade taken for a multitude of reasons).

The following screen shot is the Euro/gbp this morning , 15 minute chart. I posted the following on twitter at the London open;
“morning . euro/gbp very interesting right now. broke emas up & just making new hi’s for the day. 88.50 is also a fib. if can break here, up.”

Asian high & lows marked in yellow

Euro/Gbp Asian high and lows marked in yellow

I have had a lot of questions asking me what is a “confirmed” break of a range or channel. For me it is a candle that CLOSES above or below the channel.  If you look at arrow 1 in the diagram, price pierces the asian high & the fib & the 0.8850, but it doesn’t close above it. Thus it is not a confirmed break.

The 2nd candle is a confirmed break for me. The candle has broken & closed below the asian low and the next candle carries on in the same direction. I shorted here. Again on twitter i posted;

“euro gbp never confirmed break up at 8850 upside. but just confirmed break of downside 8820, that has held for last 24 hours”.

Because it was a break of a 4 hour support line that had held 4 times, I got in here with 1 lot. The aim was to take a 2nd lot if it pulled back or carried on going down. Unfortunately it pulled back and  took me out -25 pips. I then took a 2nd lot at arrow 3.

This is the pull-back that I should have waited for in the 1st place ! It moved down. I moved my stop to entry, so no loss and it came back and took me out again.  The reason I got in straight away is the this pair only moves 100 pips a day on average and doesn’t always give pullbacks.

I did make 20 pips on a gbp/$ trade that was a carbon copy of 4th mays trade. I got up a bit late, so missed the initial bounce off the 200 ema. I waited then for price to break the 34/55emas which it did. The bollinger bands closed in on this candle so i waited for a pullback to the 5 and 55emas. Textbook entry.

Same as monday. Bounce off 200ema, break of 34 & 55 emas

Same as monday. Bounce off 200ema, break of 34 & 55 emas

I took 20 pips off the 1st trade, but then had to go out. I moved the stop on my 2nd lot to break even to let it run. Unfortunately by the time I got back it pulled back and took me out at zero.

I then had a losing trade on 2 lots aud – 20 pips x 2 = -40. I Then took another long at a bounce of the 200ema/ break of 34/55emas on the aud as you can see in the following diagram.

The green dotted lines are my entries. The black line under the highest arrow was a 78.6% fib of yesterday

The green dotted lines are my entries. The black line above the highest arrow was a 78.6% fib of yesterday. The dotted red top line is 1st profit target. Bottom red line is stop.

This was a good entry for lots of reasons;

  • it was 7400 psychological level
  • price rejected at the 200 ema
  • 2nd entry was a break back above 78.6 fib
  • 30 minute and 1 hour emas in same area
  • was a trend line on 4 hour chart
  • Trend for aud is up.

I have been playing around with trades on metatrader for the last few days to get ready for the $1.000.000 challenge. If you see dotted lines they are just entries (green) and stops or targets (red).

I then “bent” my own rules. I do not normally trade just before the news, but the gbp AGAIN bounced off the 200ema and the usd/chf again bounced back below the DAILY 200ema. I was going to take the trades anyway but it was 20 minutes before the news. I entered and then 5 minutes before the news moved the stops close to price.

Then the madness that is forex kicked in. The U.S. employent news was much better than expected, therefore the value of the $ goes up, right ? WRONG. The dollar fell sharply against the gbp, euro, aud, and chf. Why ? I have no idea !

However it worked in my favour as my 2nd lot aud shot up 30 pips in 15 minutes. My gbp went up 50 pips in less than 15 minutes and my chf dropped 40 pips.

Chf break. The red line is my stop which was also my entry.

Chf break on 15 minute fx chart. The red line is my stop which was also my entry.

This was 2nd entry off 200 ema bounce today. Stop moved close for news

This was 2nd entry gb/$ off 200 ema bounce today. Stop moved close for news

The gbp did the exact same thing again approx 3pm bst (2 hours after New York opened). Do not rely on the 200 ema on its own. Also, the more times price is rejected here, the more likely it is to break it the next time.

I had a lot of trades today. My net gain was 118 pips which was helped a great deal by my luck with the news going in my favour


5th May results + 48 pips

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Lots of smaller trades today, without much success on follow throughs. I was trying to get back in the good books with my wife, so had to go out and only traded a few hours in the morning, London session.

The following is a euro/$ trade, bounce off a 200ema. The chf bounced down off daily 200ema at the same time. Great confirmation. I got in late on this as I was going out and managed to scrape 20 pips on 1st lot. Taken out 2nd lot at entry.

This was a carbon copy of yesterdays gbp move. I hope you are learning from all this !

This was a carbon copy of yesterdays gbp move. I hope you are learning from all this !

My 1st trade of the day was a simple break out pullback of the asian range on the jpy/$. I have shown you this so many times now in previous posts. If you need to refresh your memory have a read back through some of these older posts.,

Again I got my 20 pip 1st lot (just) and broke even on the 2nd lot.

Just as i was finally going out, I posted the following on twitter;
“aud back at asian overnight high. wait for it to break & then pullback. horrible 1 hour boll bands on chf & euro, not great other majors”.

This aud trade would have earned you 20 pips 1st lot again on simple break/pullback of overnight asian high.

In the afternoon session (New York) which i really don’t like, i made and lost pips on a lot of silly little trades that I haven’t time to explain, but it was a net gain of 8 pips from 3 trades ! waste of time. Very tired today, so I’ll leave it there. If you don’t feel 100% it is best not to trade forex. I’m off for a siesta. hasta luego.

4th May Results + 220 pips

Comments (1)

I was in big trouble with my wife yesterday. I said I wasn’t going to trade as it was a bank holiday.* All the family came back from the beach for lunch & I sneaked into my office for a peek at the charts “just in case;”- it was so obvious  I had to take it. ):

If you want to keep up with what i am doing in real time, then keep an eye on my twitter page (marc12001)

I posted this on twitter; “wife not happy, wasn’t going to trade today but gbp reject at 200ema 15 min & 50% fib just begged 4 a buy. she says i’m addicted. so” ?

price broke down, bounced around, then broke back thro 200ema 15 minute chart

price broke down, bounced around, then broke back thro 200ema 15 minute chart

A more conservative entry would have been where the red arrow is pointing; confirmed break of 200ema up & break of 21 ema. A really conservative entry would have been price closed above the 34 & 55emas. But I took it where I did for a lot of reasons;

Price spiked through, but then pulled back up through the 55 ema & the bollinger bands on the 1 hour. This candle closed above the 55ema on the hour. I entered 2 lots here at 1.4855. This was a little riskier than I would have liked as it hadn’t broken & closed above the 200 on the 15 minute, but as I said in sundays “4th may gbp possible break up” post I was expecting it to go up & the 200ema was a logical place to pullback to as well as it being a 50% fib. of fridays chart.

Also i only had a small stop at 1.4825 (just below previous low for the day) so my risk/possible reward was excellent.

The good thing about the trade was that it quickly got to my 20 pip 1st target, but as it was a holiday & I wasn’t supposed to be trading, i just moved the entries to 20 pip profit and went out and left them both to run.

Twitter again “locked in 20 pips profit on both lots. going to let them run. think this a 4 hour trade. off back to the beach 85 + deg 2day, good luck2all”

Optimistic target for 1st lot was days previous high of 1.4980. Back from beach 3.5 hours later and it had hit it ! + 120 pips on a bank holiday, unbelieveable.

Final twitter post “back from beach. 1st lot just closed out +120 pips gbp. 2nd lot stops moved locked in 60, balance to run, sometimes i just love forex !

I screwed up here. I then moved the stop too close to the price. I was taken out. I gained 100 pips, but as thought it was a 4 hour/daily move i should have let it run. It has since gone another 100+ pips.

*Often on an international public holiday there is hardly any movement which is why I didn’t intend to trade. Hey I’m a forex trader, if opportunity arrives, take it !

4th May. Gbp possible break up

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gbp is returning to top of 4 hour trend line again

gbp is returning to top of 4 hour trend line again

As I explained in great detail my ” April 2009 Results”… post. The gbp is returning to the same upper 4 hour trend line again. This may not happen tomorrow (monday) with it being an international holiday BUT this is an extremely important area again.

Price is above all the emas on the longer time-frame charts. It is “riding the 5″ ema on the 4 hour chart shown above. There has been a 34/55 ema cross up on the daily & the bollinger bands have opened to the upside on the same chart.The next long term target on the daily chart would be the 1.5600 area.

There are lots of indications that price is due to go up. However the vastly reduced number of traders on a bank holiday could mean that price just goes side ways for the day.

Final option is that it could bounce back down here ! Yep forex is that simple. Price is either going to go up, down or sideways !

But, you need to learn to look for important areas where price will react. I have shown you lots of examples of how to look for clues as to the next direction for price, here on the blog as well as the free lessons on the main site.

Good luck. I hope I am helping you learn to be able to trade for yourself. I have not met a forex robot yet that lives up to the sales hype. Signal services can work well for a while, but when they hit  a bad patch  you will have learnt nothing.

If you are serious about trading forex then you need to put in the hours to learn all you can.

April 2009 Results + ?? Pips

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Well i didn’t make it to 2000 pips, but still my best month ever trading forex. If you had traded $10 a pip following my strategies you would have earned $18.000+ in a month !!

The pleasing thing for me was twofold.
1) The profit was made using low risk, repeatable trades.
2) That I didn’t get carried away and take silly risks to get to a target, that lets face it, is irrelevant. I have had individual weeks when I have earned more, then got over confident and lost a lot the following week.

The other great thing is that I have managed to be so successful using a very simple, low risk, basic system of break outs and pull-backs.

If you are new to the blog and updates, please read through my posts in April. I explain and show examples of different types of strategies that I have used. If you are new to forex, check out the free lessons on the main site
http://forex-fxtrader.com/Free-forex-training.html

My normal trading strategy is based around the 4 hour charts, but due to the choppy state of the currency markets in April, my system has rarely worked. In January, February and early March it was the 4 hour system that was earning all the pips.

All systems go through periods when they are “hot”. For this reason it is important to have flexibility in your trading to be able to profit through the different phases of the market.

I keep getting private messages on twitter and emails asking me where I think a particular currency is going next. The truth is ? I have no idea ! All I am trying to do is teach you all to look for “clues”. For example in Fridays email I said that i thought that the gbp was heading to 1.50 area again. I had lots of clues to suggest that it would, but it didn’t.

The following charts show how I was 1st alerted to Thursdays gbp long trade, by the break of the 4 hour channel. I then went to the 1 hour chart for a confirmed candle break.  Finally I went to the 15 minute chart for entry.

Price through the channel on the 4 hour. Then I went to 1 hour chart

Price through the channel on the 4 hour. Then I went to 1 hour chart

I entered at the arrow, having checked on the 15 minute chart

I entered at the arrow, having checked on the 15 minute chart

Blue is 4 hour trend line. Yellow asian high. 1st arrow only pierced, 2nd arrow closed above both lines. I entered long

Blue is 4 hour trend line. Yellow asian high. 1st arrow, candle only pierced lines, 2nd arrow (E), price CLOSED above both lines. I entered long

This was a trade that could have been entered for any number of reasons. The fact that there were signs on all 3 different time frames made this trade a no-brainer.

I made 20 pips on the 1st lot as per my normal plan. On the 2nd lot I was planning/hoping for price to go to 1.500. It stalled at 1.4948. I changed my plan and i closed out for +60 pips on the 2nd lot at 1.4935.

I also made 25 pips on 1st lot euro buy at the same time- break of asian high again. 2nd lot closed me out at entry for 0 pips. So thursday lunchtime + 105 pips for the day and +1894 for the month. Then it went a bit wrong. (My wife has a theory that if I have earned 100 pips in a day I should turn the computer off. I am beginning to think she is right):

I was so sure that price was going to 1.500 that i was waiting for it to pullback to the 1.4850 trend line, as I mentioned in my morning email. The problem we all have is when does a pullback become a reversal. I bought 1 lot at 1.4848 and later a 2nd at 1.4820. The 1st lot missed its primary, 20 pip target by 2 pips and i was later taken out – 30 pips. The 2nd lot lost another 28 pips.

Net result for the day + 47 pips

Grand Total for the month……………… + 1836 pips

I didn’t trade Friday as my kids were off school for the day. If you had followed the asian break out strategy, there was another good move on cable and a lesser one on the euro. Hopefully some of you caught it.

The secret in forex is to pre-plan what you are going to do,

“If it breaks through this point and goes up I will buy here.”

” If it pulls back to this area I will look for clues (emas/candles/indicators) that it is going to bounce back up:”

“If it breaks down through this area I will look for reasons to short.”

You can be convinced that price is going in a direction and it goes completely the other way. HAVE A PLAN.

PLAN THE TRADE: TRADE THE PLAN

Monday is a world wide holiday, so I will not be trading. Normally holidays like this, when most of the big boys are away from their trading desks, result in sideways movement.

29th April Results + 213 pips

Comments (3)

Great start to the day. My euro/$ trade which I opened yesterday, as explained in my results, closed for a 145 pip profit. I have then taken 20 pips off a gbp and +20 on a euro long, break of the asian overnight high. And a further 28 pips off the 2nd euro lot.

Still struggling to get follow through on some of the 2nd lots, but I am now almost + 1800 pips this month !

Todays trades were the same, simple  strategy that  i have been using for most of the month and which I have explained in previous updates.  This is not my normal trading strategy, but you have to have a number of plans to suit the different phases of the markets.

I was annoyed with myself though for having missed an extremely good, longer term trade on the australian $ (aud). I recommend you only trade 1 or 2 pairs if you are new to forex, BUT on the longer charts, which I prefer, you do have the time to analyse and plot well in advance.

Normally I would have been waiting for price to hit at the 200ema on the chart. Plan a stop somewhere below the 200 ema and then go to the 15 minute chart to find an entry.

aud_4_hour_chart

Price had already bounced off the 200 ema previously

As you can see there has been a 250 pip gain so far on this move and without the whip saw movements of some of the other pairs. It has gone up nice and steady over 3 days.

If you do not have the time to trade forex full time, then get used to looking at the longer term charts. You have longer to plan and the gains are often large and yet can have (like the above example) a relatively small stop.

On this trade you would have risked 50 pips (previous low) to win 250 + and its still going. I could kick myself !

Another example of the 200ema was on todays chf.  I posted the following on twitter 10.00am bst

“on the 4 hour & daily charts bolls open. chf looks good to fall probably to 1350 1st target. daily 200 ema”.

I was in the euro from a 15 minute chart, but i got out because i forecast that the chf would stop at 1350/200ema. It did almost to the pip.

When the chf is going down 80% of the time the euro is going up and vice-versa. As I am writing this article now 16.30 hours bst, the 200ema on the daily chf chart is now being broken (see below). Again this is not unusual. Price will often reject here, pull back, before gathering steam to have another go.

This is a 15 min chart but I had the daily 200ema (green line) on it

This is a 15 min chart but I had the daily 200ema (green line) on it

I have now almost 2000 pips in the bag for April 2009. The temptation is to go for the big 2000. Hopefully I can retain my discipline. In the past I have had amazing weeks, only to get over-confidant and blow all the gains the following week.

My best week ever, a few years ago, was something over 1150 pips, but by months end I think i ended up with 500. Discipline. Sticking to your rules is the key to success in forex,

good luck,

Marc

28th April Results -36 pips

Comments (4)

You know when you are tired when you can’t count your pips properly. In this mornings email I said that the pip haul for the month was 1200+. When I sat down to do my monthly figures this afternoon, i realised i had made a slight mistake.

My monthly total for April 2009 up to this morning was actually 1612 !! My best month ever ! Then gbp/$ went and spoiled the party.

I took a short trade on the gbp this morning. My reasoning was good. Price broke, pulled back  and then re-broke the asian range low. All the emas were pointing down on various charts. Price had closed below the 200 ema on the 4 hour chart. 1st arrow shows the yellow line for the asian low. Horizontal arrow shows a conservative entry (for me) on the 15 minute forex gbp chart below;

Everything looked great for a short. Works 80% of the time

Everything looked great for a short. Works 80% of the time

The only possible problem was yesterdays low at 1.4512. I set my 1st target here (it missed by 3 pips). Rejected and took me out – 40 pips on 2 lots = -80 pips.

If the same set up comes along tomorrow I will take it again. Sometimes you lose in forex. Losing is part of the game. Curse a little, grab a coffee, chill then look for the next trade.

Anyone who tells you forex is easy, ignore them. This last month has been very difficult trading.  My 4 hour system has not worked very well, but I have managed to improvise and mix n match and still come out ahead.

My next 2 trades were euro and aud longs on break outs. I will show the euro below on the 15 minute chart. The aud was almost identical.  I initially stayed out of the euro as the chf was going nowhere and the bollinger bands on the 1 hour euro were “never in a million years” is this going to break.  I posted the following on twitter 2pm b.s.t

“horrible choppy forex day again today. take a look at euro/$ 1 hour chart bollinger bands now for a price that doesnt want to go anywhere”

Never in a million years bollinger bands 1 hour euro chart_bollingers

99% of the time price will not break these bands. wait for them to open before taking a trade

The bollinger bands opened on the hour. I entered here. It was too early really for the 200 ema was very near and flat on the 15 minute chart. Normally I won’t take a trade if there are less than 25 pips between my entry and a 200 ema.

I only took 1 lot at this point and managed to scrape 20 pips. I entered a 2nd trade a little later at 1.3050 that is still running as i write this.

break out (mid afternoon) of asian overnight range

break out (mid afternoon) of asian overnight range

For similar reasons I took 2 lots on the aud. Gained 20 pips on the 1st lot & was taken out of the 2nd at break even. This is so frustrating. Normally the follow through on this kind of move would gain you 50+ pips. If you are struggling at the moment don’t get despondent. This is not easy for any of us.

If you are losing at the moment, walk away for a few days. Alternatively just demo trade until things settle down. This is like trying to swim through treacle !

27th April Results + 60 pips

Comments (2)

Very strange day for me. I was pre-occupied with the euro/gbp & as a result missed moves on the other pairs. I was not helped by the fact that i had been awake half the night monitoring the pair. I was convinced there was a big move coming on it. In truth i thought it was going to go UP with a bang !

I managed to catch 20 pips off the 1st lot that I longed at 90.20 & 30 pips from a further pullback that gave me entry at 90.12. Both 2nd lots were taken out at entry. So mid morning and i was 50 pips up. Next i longed the same pair again at 90.03. with a short stop (just below the 200ema on the 15 minute @ 89.88 for a loss of 15 x 2 = -30 pips.

I still thought the pair were heading up, so was a little hesitant to short, but eventually got in at a confirmed break of the same 200ema on the 15 minute chart & a fib just below @ 88.80. I took 20 pips profit off the 1st lot & then got out too early on the 2nd at the 200 ema on the 1 hour, for only 30 pips gain. As i write the price has just fallen another 60 pips.

As you can see on the 15 minute chart below, there were clues that the price was not going to go any higher. The top arrow shows how price has again broken through the bollinger bands (remember my bollinger band lesson on main site http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/bollinger-bands.html ). This candle was also followed by a spinning top candle = indecision.

I entered short on lower area (confirmed break of psych & 200ema)

I entered short on lower area (confirmed break of psych & 200ema)

The lower arrow is where i finally accepted what the charts were telling me ! and I shorted. The short was taken because price had broken through the 200 ema and the candle closed below it. I only needed a short stop, so the risk reward was excellent.

The moral of this story is do what the charts tell you. NOT what you think. Also do not become so preoccupied with one pair and miss opportunities on the others. In truth, I have found trading to be very difficult in April. This sounds a remarkably stupid thing to say when you consider i am currently 1222 pips up for April, but it honestly hasn’t been easy and i am using lots of trading methods that i dont usually.

Todays total + 70 pips

April total so far (posted on here and twitter) + 1222 pips

27th April Euro/Gbp Analysis

Comments (2)

I posted this on twitter friday afternoon re euro/gbp. “pullback to 90.20 or 90 would be very logical bounce back up for Monday am for me. All emas pointing up. could go a long way next week”.

Unfortunately i don’t trade friday afternoons so my rules initially kept me out of the trade. I then stayed up half of  Sunday night to catch the damn thing ! Eventually I got my orders filled at 90.20 and later on 90.12.

Arrow shows approx time i posted on twitter to look for entry UP

Arrow shows approx time i posted on twitter to look for entry UP

Price was clearly coming down on the 15 minute chart above. Why would i think that its going to go back up again ? See my analysis further down the page.

What i thought i would do today is give you a detailed analysis of this pair over various chart time frames, so that you can learn for yourself, how to look for clues.

If you are new to forex, i strongly recommend you concentrate on 1 or at most 2 pairs to start with. Each have their own characteristics and you will find that you soon get a “feel” for it.

I still only specialise in 3 or 4 pairs. gbp/$, euro/$, chf and euro/gbp. I will occasionally look at aud and jpy, but only if i see clues on daily charts.I had a 600 pip move in February/march on jpy that was purely off the daily chart.

Take a look for yourself. It is so obvious now and to be honest, it was so obvious then, before it happened. I will write an article explaining this trade at some point in the future.

Back to the euro/gbp trade. The reason i said it could pullback to 90.20 was the 34 ema on the 15 minute chart and the 200 ema on the 4 hour chart were both in the same area. Price went through that.

My second area of probable change was 90.00 for lots of reasons (had it not been friday pm i would have entered 1st  lot here).

1) 90.00 is a HUGE psychological number. It broke here previous days & a pullback to same place is logical to me.

2) There were emas on the 30 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour & daily charts all in this area. It went through here. Eventually it stopped at 89.78. Just above a fib from fridays chart & the 34 ema on the 1 hour. It bounced back up.

This same 1 hour candle CLOSED ABOVE the 90.00. I would have taken my 2nd lot here with a stop just below the 89.78 previous low. Candles closing above/below important places are very significant.

Reasons to suspect price will keep going up

The key word here is “suspect”. I have no more of a crystal ball than you. What we must do as forex traders is to analyse, calculate and then take action. I may be completely and utterly wrong here BUT i am satisfied that  my trades were based on sound, logical  reasons.

Price has broken & is above all emas on 1 hour chart

Price has broken & is above all emas on 1 hour chart

This screen shot was taken 10.30 am bst Monday 27th April. As you can see price has broken above the 200 ema & the strong 90.00 area. The 5 ema has crossed the 200 ema. Price could well pullback to the 5/200 ema to give another chance to enter long. If it breaks (candle closed) below here, we start to consider short.

Daily chart;

Daily chart. Price has closed ABOVE 34/55 emas

Daily chart. Price has closed ABOVE 34/55 emas

The daily chart is now at a critical point. A 34/55 cross up or down here in the next few days will probably show us which way price is going to go on this pair for the next few weeks. A 34/55 cross up here would suggest to me that price will move at least 300 pips to 93.00 area. Why there ? Trend line on daily. A cross down would signify 87.00 area. See chart below;

34 cross up tells me target trend line. Cross down target 200ema

34 cross up tells me target trend line. Cross down target 200ema

O.K, hopefully this has given you lots to think about and will help you learn to look at the charts for clues (especially the longer term ones). I have made 50 pips (off 2 lots) so far from this analysis and have the balance running with stops at entry.

Price may well fall back today, but this analysis will be useful to me for the rest of this week as I am looking mainly at the daily chart.

I will post todays results later on. Good luck to all.

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