Lies, damned lies & statistics. Mark Twain popularized the saying in “Chapters from My Autobiography”, published in the North American Review in 1906. “Figures often beguile me,” he wrote, “particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to British Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.’”
I found this great site the other day: shadowstats.com What I was particularly interested in was the inflation figures (cpi) we all KNOW that inflation is way above the current 3% that many western governments are reporting.
Oil, commodities, foodstuffs etc have shot up & yet we are being told that the rate is 3%. How do they do that? You may find this hard to believe but successive governments (not just in the USA) change the items that are in the “shopping basket!!”
Something gets too expensive? They replace it with a cheaper item. Brilliant! The chart above shows what could be the true rate of unemployment, without the “recalculation.”
Margaret Thatchers’ government did something similar years ago in the United Kingdom. Unemployment figures were sky high. No real jobs were being created, so a whole raft of people were re-classified as disabled. Hence todays title. The more I see the less I believe anything that any politician or government office says.
Hopefully you took my long term advice & ignored the NFP news release on Friday. The number of new jobs created was 100.000 less than expected & yet, allegedly, unemployment figures fell in the USA from 9.5% to 9.0%.
I have no idea how that works ! As a result price shot in both directions on some pairs, notably the Euro/$ where there was a 100 pip wild swing in the first 10 minutes.
Mixed news is often the worst to try & trade & so I will wait for the dust to settle tomorrow morning/wait for the Asian traders to put their interpretation on the figures. Also be very wary with any Aud or Jpy trades in the early session. There is Aussie jobs & retail both released at 00.30 hours, London time & later on a speech by the governor of the Bank of Japan could rock the markets as well.
| Gbp/$ | I am only interested to long-
Weekly: I show in the video how there is a potential MAJOR move brewing here now. The 34 & 55emas crossed as per last weeks video. Its the 1st time since 2008 & that cross was followed by a 6000 pip move! Patience is the keyword here. On the weekly I will be looking for a pullback to long at 1.5720 area Daily: 1.6000 has been a major area over the last few weeks, that is the 1st area to consider a long tomorrow. If it breaks then later in the week 1.5820 will be important as well. |
| Euro/$ | Only looking to long unless it breaks and closes below 1.3400 Main areas are 1.3520 & 1.3450. However does look bearish on the daily with 5/8 cross down & stochastics rolling over. I suspect a move down followed by bounce back up BUT we do what the charts tell us! |
| Chf/$ | Pulled back last week to where I wanted but Murphys law it was after NFP
Main area is 0.9600. Wait until London open and look for clues on smaller time frames. Either bounce back down or M2 break out & pull-back. Counter trend traders may look to long at 0.9300 again, but its not for me & if you do so then I recommend you half the stake. The good thing is you would only need a small stop |
| Aud/$ | Only looking to long main area is 1.000/1.0020. BUT wait until after the Aussie big news. |
| Aud/jpy | Big Weekly move last week. Only looking to long but need a pull back.
82.85 is main area & I will definitely long if gets back down around 82.15 area. Watch weekly Bollinger for clues, currently wide open |
| Euro/Gbp | Only interested to short. 0.8500 area is the place for me. |
| Euro/Yen | Messy 112.00 & 110.75 are the important areas. Either look for bounces off or break out/pullbacks, |
| $/Yen
CAD |
We got the triangle break out at last & good trades were there on the 4 hour. On Friday price bounced back up and stopped at the 4 hour 200ema & the daily trend line just above is the daily 55ema. It looks a bit bullish but I slightly favour a short around 82.40. To long I need a break above 82.75. WAIT until after BoJ governors speech in the Asian session
Only interested in a short & 1.000 is the main area once more. Counter trend traders will be interested to long again at 0.9835 area BUT the weekly Bollinger has opened (watch it before taking any trades) AND there was extremely good Cad employment news on Friday. Eventually this area will break & it could be in the next few days. Watch the monthly Bollinger for clues as well. It seems to me that is whats stopping its further fall at the moment. All explained in the video |
| Have a great week, Marc |
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Ok Marc, this is the 2nd video of yours i’ve seen. There’s a reminder on my phone to tune in every sunday night. I can’t thank you enough for the contribution you make to my understanding of the markets.