100% Winners

[Thomas]

Has anybody preferences to these guys: http://100percentwinners.com

It´s not a forex product but it based on arbitrage which is a well known investment strategy and I got the sales pitch throug one of my forex newsletters.

In short it takes advantage of differences in odds between sports bedding bookmakers. The web site is the usual over hyped marketing thing which proves 100% winners with no risk at all and it really sounds to good to be true. The reason why I´m spending time on it is, that I can´t see why it shouldn´t work.

Any comments?

[raa]

Yes I know about it, it's sports bookie service. From people behind FAP Turbo. I believe it is a working model, but you can't win much and still have risks, not from losing normal way but from crook bookie, from bookie cancelled trade after and you suffer hugely as only half of your arbitrage trade is on, etc. And you can expect only 5% gain from risk taken and bookies limit stakes. This stuff rocked 5 years ago, just like forex arbitrage, news trading etc. Same people

[Thomas]

Thanks Alex, I knew there was a catch, just couldn´t find it my self:-)

[raa]

Well there is no actual catch in this service or arbitrage itself, it's the quality of execution. Same is for forex arbitrage - it does work in principle and on some demo accounts, but on live it loses due to slippage and requotes by brokers.

[Thomas]

Well there is no actual catch in this service or arbitrage itself, it's the quality of execution. Same is for forex arbitrage - it does work in principle and on some demo accounts, but on live it loses due to slippage and requotes by brokers.

Alex, have You tryed it?

[raa]

I don't have to, I know people behind it. The principle is sound, the realization is complex and low-rewarding. You will need to have around 80 sport betting accounts, waiting for a signal from application indicating which bet at what better to take against some other better. Deal is available during some 10-15 minutes. Max bet at most betters is 500 quid, and it works on a principle that some better give you a different edge comparing to other, and when those edges are different enough, you bet at one better for one outcome (for example horse Demon wins) and with another better for opposite outcome (horse Demon loses), however if horse wins better one will pay you more than you lost with better two, and if it loses better two will pay you more than you lost with better 1. Classic arbitrage. The problem is the gain is around 5%. So if you bet 500 (you have to pay 1000 as 500x2), you gain 25 only. You need to bet tens of thousands to make sense and it is not possible. Then sometimes better may cancel stakes after event or right before and return your stake. Too late to cancel other bet. In result you either win with your half side or lose the half. This is huge risk considering regular low rewards.

It was working like a first wave of news trading in 2005-2006 when people made hundreds of thousands dollars in a couple of months off naive brokers and betters, but it ended soon. Not anywhere easy now.

[raa]

In general the rule is like that: when information like that makes to public - it is too late to use it, it's burnt down. While it was working no one would sell this server for masses to ruin in in few weeks. And this is what normally happens, just like with news trading. When many people know about recipe that works and where it works - it stops to work very very soon.

[capsmart]

Thomas,
I also agree with Alex, that in theory it works but not in real life.
And the reason is simple. If the software provider compares thousands of bets I believe the same will do the bookies.
If for a game one offers a 2.5 winning ratio and all other competitors offer a 2 he will also want to change it to something lower. And he will do it minutes before the closing time and you will not have the opportunity to cancel it.

[Thomas]

Thomas,
I also agree with Alex, that in theory it works but not in real life.
And the reason is simple. If the software provider compares thousands of bets I believe the same will do the bookies.
If for a game one offers a 2.5 winning ratio and all other competitors offer a 2 he will also want to change it to something lower. And he will do it minutes before the closing time and you will not have the opportunity to cancel it.

Thanks guys, of cource it isn´t that easy. I won´t waste more time on this fantastic 100% risk free opportunity but instead consentrate on my trading

[raa]

I came to the same conclusion.