Hello Everyone

[robert]

I was thinking is it a continuation uptrend ? so if it will continue going up, based on the 4 hours, I will choose my entry at 0.9070 and a take profit : 0.9150 with a stop loss :0.9030. what do you think ? where are my weaknesses ? and based on which MA is best for such trade ?

Regards

[capsmart]

Yes we are in uptrend. This is certain.
So first the decision to go long is sound.
The longer the ema the stronger the support is provides.
So more possible to bounce from the 200 and less possible to bounce from the 8 ema. This is logical you already know that.
The relation between stop loss and take profit is also correct.
Now how did you decide to enter at 0.9070?

[robert]

well, since August 17 it didnt go up than this average price 0.9070. could be a good support when it has passed it today , so i think if the price could go back would be this price as a support to continue going up more to reach 0.9165 the highest price of August 10. so i chose 0.9150 as a guaranteed result ... well still donnu if im thinking logically but also the MA of 50 and 200 show a crossing which can give more power to the trend.
what do you think ???

[capsmart]

Ok. I see your point. Now let me tell you what I think.
That does not mean that I am correct and that you are wrong.
Otherwise every trader would enter at the same point and exit at the same point.
So first I go to weekly and draw a trend line from Apr 11th till Aug 1st. This could be a barrier in the up way and this is trend line pointing down. So price 3 weeks ago did not make it higher and turned down again.
Now go to the daily. How was the day today? Open and close at the same level. An indecision market. It does not know where to go. This is logical. A big move yesterday and NFP tomorrow. And the trendline from the daily no more than 40 pips above current level.
I see the 0.8830 as a level for price to bounce. I like to select the recent lows and highs. I have a short memory (lol).
So first I would not trade because of the NFP, then I would like price to retrace at least to .9000 (very nice round number) to enter long. I would place my take profit at the trend line (.9150) and the stop loss at .8840 lower than current lows of previous days and also under the 55 ema daily.
Take care I have to go now.

[Nudge]

Hey guys ,
I was looking at the Aussie/USD and seems has good moves what do you think ? what are the things that we must take in consideration before putting a trade on it , as Im not familiar with it.
thnx.

It's ok, some days it can have a 200pip range, but most days around 90. It's a good slowish pair to cut your teeth.

As you will see from your research, it doesn't like to stay above 0.9100 for too long, so getting the ride down is fun, likewise it doesn't like to push past 0.8850 lately too

Most times it will retrace 50%, but on occasion it will go to 75 and even 100% before bouncing again.

[capsmart]

@ Robert
You see that your entry point was correct. Price did not pull back to the level I was thinking. At this moment you could have about 30 pips profit.
How is the feeling?
I insist of not trading today because of NFP. I always listen to Marc's advice.

[raa]

You have got changed a lot, Caps, in last few weeks. After our conversations I had an impression that you like to do risky things and step away from the rules. Maybe I got a wrong impression!

[capsmart]

Alex unfortunately I did not change.
It is more do what I say and don't do what I do.
Luckily I am the only one seeing my trades.

[capsmart]

@ Robert (2)
Congratulations. You also got the high point of the trade.
Any thoughts to write the daily Aussie analysis?
Regards

[raa]

Alex unfortunately I did not change.
It is more do what I say and don't do what I do.
Luckily I am the only one seeing my trades.

Haha! Exactly the same here! But you right, it's like from Napoleon Hill, you have to keep telling yourself over and over again how you do things to actually convince yourself and really start doing it this way.