Here is a short condensation of my latest thoughts on Euro mess and where it leads Euro currency:
I no longer think Euro is going to the bottom, indeed it may and likely to go down more, perhaps under 1.20, but hardly to the parity and almost impossibly to nil. Why so? Just because of macro-economical and linked political reasons. It will absolutely certainly wreck a total chaos in the world and most importantly in US, who loaned quite a lot to ECB and invested in EU banks, and also because it will completely close European market for US exporters and give albeit brief advantage to German exports (not for long). So what can happen? More of the same that happened already: roll the presses, start the engines. Helicopter Ben will launch more of Twists and other candy bars, effectively pushing USD down more (not lifting EUR though), and other majors will follow. So what it means to us, people and traders. In my opinion we will continue to see trends in currencies, nothing is going to nil, nor dropping permanently, but, at the same time we will see commodities and assets rising since all majors will keep devaluing. They will do of course not precisely at the same time and we shall see these wonderful hundreds of pips in home-runs. But we as currency holders, will become poorer and poorer.
The conclusion: I wouldn't bet on EUR permanent fall, against US dollar for sure. There will be moves up and down, but hardly a fast one-way lane. And will continue to add to my metals portfolio as soon as panic will dissipates and prices will plunge in a false hope of another "recovery", only to shot up again. At this very moment, I will just wait and see.
Well in a way it has been like this for the last 50 years. If you could buy a house 40 years ago and pay 50.000 and now for the same house you need 500.000 it is because the cash money lost it's value.
Exactly. But now 40 years could be compressed into one...
Today’s the day the teddy bears have their picnic….. | ForexLive
Good moment to long the pound. I have bought it already at the manipulation/stophunt level already but this should reverse roles of euro and cable: time for euro to go down to gun stops below the low and pound to rise.
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
- George Soros