I also traded two shorts on gbp/usd when price retraced, both for 15 pips each. I think it depends on the time frame you are trading. I prefer the short term and for me the trend is defined according to yesterday's move. With this horizon I could instead of 15 make 20 but this would be the limit. If you watch 4h charts it is logical to aim for 60 or 100 pips but your stop loss will also be larger and you will not trade that often.
Vas I trade 1 pip range bars after news it close to 10 sec during normal market or 1-3 sec during volatile one. gain in pips is misleading unless you factor in risks in pips. with 3 pips risk 30 pips is close to 300 pips gained on intraday swing trading as you can use ten times size position.
I decided to split a topic related to news-related order flow surfing into a separate one Trading on the news and give it a go exclusively for 1 month till the end of Feb.
My first non-trial trades went live with NFP last Friday and it went so well (again, adding to previous successes with news-related scalps) I decided to focus on it exclusively for at least a month and judge it's performance by real money risked and earned by the end of month.
Thus said this very thread is likely to go on the back-burner for a while while I will keep focusing on news to see my performance statistics and my psychological approach and overall feeling from doing so exclusively.
Here is a bit of order flow trading for you, namely STOP HUNT. Market opened on EU 30 pips gapped up, as I watched it ran to 1.32 where I shorted with a target down to 1.3140 for good 60 pips. I expect dealers to gun stops located above previous highs at 1.3200 and bit above, where we have an adjusted option strike at 1.3214 with a significant open interest. I think the move may be capped there and there is a high probability of gap closing during the asian session. I will look to close down the trade before the London open.
There was quite a bit of strength in the market and it did run more than I expected, anyway it fell pre-London and I closed for +13 pips out of planned 60, since it will become a gamble now to hold as news or rumours may drive the market any moment in any direction.
I plan to re-introduce my order flow intra-day trading again, but I will trade it 1 month on demo before taking it live back again, as I want to make few important changes to it. More about it later. On top I feel now confident with my momentum surfing news trading (m-surfing news), so I feel that filling the gap with an intra-day technique won't distract me again from my most profitable method. But let's see how it will work. Only demo, for 1 month, then re-evaluate. The target is to trade it with low risk (lower than m-surfing news) to add to the void between absent news trades.
Looking at the action in EURUSD lately I can't think of anything bar pure stop hunting action. Have been thinking how to trade it: basically look for a normal technical approach, where would you enter, where would you place your stop order, and instead of entering a placing a stop order there, place a limit order of opposite position instead, give it some 20-something pips breathing space depending on volatility and watch. This methods also can work well on news.
with 66 pips atr and price 22 pips under open we are exactly in the middle of nowhere. Maybe the US consumer confidence moves the market. 10 minutes from now
I am putting this thread to sleep as I will concentrate for next 3 months only on News Flow trading (see my trading on the news topic) and most importantly Harmonic Trading with FXGroundWorks and HAT. I realized a while ago I can concentrate on few things only if I want to really work and perfect them, otherwise my attention disseminate and I achieve nothing when running in many different directions.
I believe classic order flow trading is very profitable, but I yet to define criteria that lead to most probable setup, so this is more research and development topic. I plan to come back to it once my news flow and harmonic trading are on a stable ground. I believe some aspects of order flow trading can be automated and this is something I am really looking forward. I don't want to be trading too much manual methods due to the reasons described above, but have no problem with using an automated strategy as a part of my trading portfolio.
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